You’ve probably heard the noise, the headlines, and the frantic Truth Social posts. If you’re running a business or just trying to buy a new car, you’re likely asking the same thing: when do the Trump tariffs start, and are they already hitting my wallet?
The short answer? Some started months ago. Others are currently trapped in a high-stakes legal battle at the Supreme Court. And some, strangely enough, have been paused because of "secret" deals or handshakes in places like South Korea.
It’s a mess. Honestly, it's one of the most complicated trade landscapes we’ve seen in a century. We went from a global average tariff of around 1.5% in early 2024 to an effective rate that peaked near 27% by April 2025. Today, in mid-January 2026, we’re sitting at a weighted average of about 16.8%, but that number changes every time a new Executive Order drops.
The Big Dates: When the First Waves Hit
The "Day One" rhetoric wasn't just talk. President Trump moved fast after the 2025 inauguration. He didn't wait for Congress. Instead, he invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), basically declaring a national emergency over the trade deficit.
Here is how the initial rollout actually went down:
- March 4, 2025: This was the "Fentanyl Tariff" day. A 25% tariff was slapped on most goods from Canada and Mexico, and an extra 10% was added to China. The logic? Pressure them to stop drug trafficking.
- April 5, 2025: The first "Reciprocal Tariffs" officially kicked in at 12:01 a.m. ET. This was a baseline 10% tax on almost everything coming from everywhere.
- April 9, 2025: The "Per-Country" rates began. This is where it got granular. If a country had high barriers against US goods, their rate jumped. For example, Cambodia hit 49%, while the EU was set at 20%.
The 2026 Reality: What’s Live Right Now?
As of January 14, 2026, the trade war has entered a "negotiation and litigation" phase. You might think everything is set in stone, but the administration has been using tariffs as a giant volume knob—turning them up to pressure countries and turning them down when a deal is signed.
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The Iran "Immediate" Tariff
Just two days ago, on January 12, 2026, Trump dropped a bombshell on social media. He announced an "effective immediately" 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran. This is a "secondary tariff," meaning it doesn't just hit Iranian goods (which are already sanctioned); it hits anyone who buys or sells to them. If you’re importing parts from a company in India or China that has a contract with Tehran, you could be on the hook for that extra 25% starting this week.
The "Fentanyl" Stalemate with Canada and Mexico
Things with our neighbors are... complicated. On August 1, 2025, the tariff on Canadian goods actually increased to 35% because the administration wasn't happy with border security. However, if your goods qualify under USMCA (the "new NAFTA"), they are mostly exempt (0%). The catch? Proving they qualify is now a paperwork nightmare. Energy products and potash from Canada are currently sitting at a 10% rate.
The China "Truce"
This is the one that surprises people. China’s tariffs were scheduled to skyrocket, but after a meeting in South Korea in late 2025, Trump signed an Executive Order on November 4, 2025. It suspended the "heightened" reciprocal tariffs on China until November 10, 2026. So, while China still pays the old Section 301 duties (around 25%), the massive "emergency" hikes are paused for now.
The Supreme Court Shadow
Why is everyone holding their breath this month?
Because of a case called Learning Resources v. Trump.
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Two lower courts already ruled that using the IEEPA to bypass Congress and set global tariffs is illegal. The administration appealed, and the Supreme Court heard arguments in November 2025. A ruling is expected any day now—likely by the end of January 2026.
If the Court strikes them down, the "Reciprocal Tariffs" could vanish overnight. Trump warned on January 13th that this would be a "complete mess" because businesses would start demanding billions in refunds for taxes already paid. It would be a logistical apocalypse for the Treasury.
Sector-Specific Tariffs to Watch
Not all tariffs are created equal. Some are based on the country of origin, but others are based on what the item is.
- Steel and Aluminum: These were doubled to 50% on June 4, 2025. Unless you're importing from the UK (which got a "break" at 25%), you’re likely paying the full 50%.
- Automobiles: A global 25% tariff on cars and parts started in April 2025. It’s a huge reason why the average price of a new SUV has jumped so much lately.
- Timber and Furniture: On September 30, 2025, a new EO added 10% to softwood lumber and 25% to upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets. This is hitting the housing market hard right now.
- Pharmaceuticals: In late September 2025, Trump announced a 100% "branded" tariff on drugs made by companies that don't have manufacturing plants in the US.
Misconceptions: What Most People Get Wrong
A lot of people think the "exporting" country pays these taxes. They don't.
When you ask when do the trump tariffs start, you’re really asking when the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) starts charging your company at the port of entry. If you’re an American business, you pay the check.
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Another big myth is the "de minimis" loophole. You used to be able to order cheap stuff from Temu or Shein under $800 and pay no tax. That ended on July 30, 2025. Now, even a $10 t-shirt from China is hit with the applicable tariff rate.
Actionable Steps for Your Business
Waiting for the Supreme Court isn't a strategy. You have to move now.
- Check the "Country of Origin" on everything. If your supplier is transshipping goods through Vietnam to avoid China rates, be careful. CBP is using "transshipment penalties" (effective August 7, 2025) that can double the cost.
- Audit your HTS codes. Tariffs are applied based on Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes. A slight misclassification could mean the difference between 0% and 50%.
- Watch the Iran secondary sanctions. If your global suppliers have Middle Eastern ties, get a written "compliance certification" from them. You don't want to be surprised by a 25% "Iran-business" levy next month.
- Prepare for the "Refund Rush." Keep meticulous records of every tariff dollar you've paid since March 2025. If the Supreme Court rules against the administration, you’ll need those receipts to claim your refund from the government.
The trade world is moving faster than the law can keep up with. Stay flexible, keep your cash reserves high, and don't assume a "truce" today means the tariff is gone tomorrow.
Next Steps for You:
- Review your 2025 import ledgers specifically looking for IEEPA-labeled duties.
- Identify any "secondary" exposure to the new January 12th Iran-related tariff order.
- Draft a contingency plan for your pricing model in case the Supreme Court strikes down the baseline reciprocal rates this month.