If you look at the news today, it feels like every week there is another headline about a lockdown or a tragedy. It’s heavy. It’s exhausting. And for anyone over the age of 40, it feels fundamentally different than the world we grew up in. You might remember the 1970s or 80s as a time when "school safety" meant fire drills or maybe avoiding the neighborhood bully. But now, it's about bulletproof backpacks and active shooter training.
People often ask: When did school shootings start to increase in the US? Most of us point to 1999. Columbine. That’s the "watershed" moment in the American psyche. But if you dig into the data—specifically from the Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) K-12 School Shooting Database—the story is a bit more complicated. It’s not just one spike; it’s a series of escalations that started decades ago and went into overdrive in the last few years.
The Long Slow Burn (1970–1990)
Back in 1970, school shootings were rare. Not non-existent, but rare. There were about 20 incidents that year. Honestly, for the next two decades, the numbers stayed relatively "low" compared to today’s standards. Most of these weren't mass casualty events. They were often personal disputes, gang-related violence on the periphery of campus, or accidental discharges.
But then the 90s hit.
In the late 1990s, something shifted. We started seeing a string of "rampage" shootings in rural and suburban towns that didn't fit the previous patterns.
- 1997: Pearl, Mississippi and West Paducah, Kentucky.
- 1998: Jonesboro, Arkansas and Springfield, Oregon.
These were kids—not outsiders—bringing multiple guns to school with the intent to kill as many people as possible. By the time we hit the end of the decade, the stage was set for a cultural trauma that would change everything.
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The Columbine Effect and the First Major Uptick
On April 20, 1999, two students at Columbine High School killed 13 people. It wasn't the deadliest shooting in history at that point (the University of Texas tower shooting in 1966 holds a grimmer record for that era), but it was the first one played out in 24-hour cable news cycles.
Data shows that after 1999, the nature of these events changed. They became "performative." Other shooters began to study Columbine like a blueprint. Between 1999 and 2014, the average number of incidents stayed somewhat steady but the severity and the public's fear grew exponentially.
According to a study published in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons, the likelihood of a child being a victim of a school shooting has increased more than fourfold since 1970. That's a staggering number. But if you're looking for the exact moment the "increase" became a "skyrocket," you have to look closer at 2015.
2015: The Year the Graph Broke
If you look at the CHDS data, there is a very clear, very scary vertical line that starts around 2015.
Before 2015, we were seeing maybe 30 to 50 incidents a year (including everything from brandishing a weapon to a full-scale shooting). By 2018, that number jumped to 115. In 2021, it hit 251. By 2023, we saw a record high of 348 school shootings at K-12 schools.
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Basically, we went from "this happens occasionally" to "this happens nearly every day school is in session."
Why? Experts point to a "perfect storm" of factors:
- Massive increase in gun ownership: There are more guns in American homes than ever before, and many aren't locked up.
- The Contagion Effect: Media coverage and social media "fame" for shooters create a cycle where one event inspires the next.
- Mental Health Crises: While most people with mental illness are never violent, the lack of support for struggling youth has reached a breaking point.
- The Pandemic Ripple: 2020-2022 saw a massive spike in student exposure to violence. The KFF analysis shows that student exposure to school shootings nearly tripled during the pandemic years.
It's Not Just "Mass Shootings"
When we talk about school shootings increasing, we often only think of the big ones: Sandy Hook (2012), Parkland (2018), Uvalde (2022). But the "increase" is actually driven by smaller, daily acts of violence.
The K-12 School Shooting Database tracks every time a gun is fired or brandished on school property. This includes:
- Suicides or attempted suicides on campus.
- Fights that escalate because someone has a handgun in their backpack.
- Accidental discharges during "show and tell" or by security officers.
- Domestic violence that spills into the parking lot.
High schools are still the primary site, accounting for nearly 60% of all incidents. However, the rise in elementary school shootings (like the tragedy at Robb Elementary) has fundamentally changed how parents feel about sending their 6-year-olds to class.
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What Does the Data Tell Us About the Future?
The trend isn't slowing down. In 2024 alone, there were 332 shooting incidents. That resulted in 267 injuries and fatalities.
We’ve seen that the "solutions" of the early 2000s—metal detectors and "broken windows" policing—don't always work. In fact, some studies show that metal detectors can actually increase the odds of a fatal attack when an adult shooter is involved. Instead, the focus is shifting toward "Threat Assessment."
In 4 out of 5 school shootings, at least one other person knew about the plan beforehand. People talk. They post on Discord. They tell a friend. The increase in shootings has led to an increase in "near misses"—plots that were stopped because a student or teacher saw something and said something.
What You Can Actually Do Right Now
The numbers are terrifying, but the data also shows us where the "off-ramps" are. If you’re a parent, educator, or just a concerned citizen, here are the evidence-based steps that actually make a difference:
- Secure Storage is #1: An estimated 4.6 million children live in homes with loaded, unlocked guns. If you have a firearm, lock it up. If your child is going to a friend's house, ask if there are guns and if they are secured. It’s an awkward conversation, but it saves lives.
- Learn the Signs: Organizations like Sandy Hook Promise provide "Know the Signs" training. Most shooters exhibit a "pathway to violence"—a series of identifiable behaviors like withdrawing from friends, obsession with previous shootings, or making direct threats.
- Support School Mental Health: Push for more school counselors and psychologists. When schools have the resources to catch a kid before they spiral, the gun never makes it onto the bus.
- Advocate for Red Flag Laws: Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs) allow families or police to temporarily remove firearms from someone who is a danger to themselves or others. In states where these are used effectively, school shooting plots have been successfully averted.
The increase started in the 90s, accelerated in 2015, and is the defining crisis of modern American education. Understanding the "when" is the first step toward changing the "what happens next."