You're probably thinking about turkey, but the retailers are already thinking about your credit card. Honestly, the biggest mistake people make is waiting for Friday morning to hit the "buy" button. If you're wondering when Black Friday shopping is actually supposed to happen, the answer is way more complicated than it used to be back in the 90s when people literally camped outside of Best Buy. Nowadays, the "event" is basically a month-long marathon that kicks off while you’re still buying Halloween candy.
It's a mess.
Amazon usually fires the first shot with their "Early Black Friday" deals in mid-October, often riding the tailwinds of their October Prime Day event. Then Walmart and Target jump in. By the time the actual Friday rolls around, half the best inventory is already sitting in someone else's living room. If you want the real deals, you have to stop thinking about Black Friday as a day and start seeing it as a season.
The "Gray November" Creep is Real
Gone are the days of the 6:00 AM doorbuster. Most major retailers have shifted to a "rolling" release schedule. Walmart, for instance, has been running their "Deals for Days" campaign for several years now, dropping new batches of discounts every Monday or Wednesday throughout November. They realized that spreading the demand prevents their website from crashing and keeps their warehouses from exploding. It's smart business, but it's exhausting for us.
Why does this happen? Logistics. Shipping companies like FedEx and UPS have limits. If everyone buys everything on a single Friday, the entire global supply chain chokes. By pushing the when Black Friday shopping window earlier, stores ensure they can actually deliver your 65-inch OLED TV before Christmas without it getting lost in a mountain of cardboard.
Don't Ignore the "Pre-Black Friday" Week
The week leading up to Thanksgiving is often better for specific categories than the actual weekend. Data from Adobe Analytics consistently shows that prices on toys and sporting goods often hit their lowest points the Tuesday or Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Retailers want to capture your budget before you get distracted by family and food. If you see a price drop on a Lego set on Tuesday, buy it. Don't wait.
When Black Friday Shopping Hits the Peak: A Timeline of Chaos
The actual schedule for the "big week" follows a pretty predictable, albeit chaotic, pattern. Most people think Thursday is for eating, but for online retailers, Thursday is "Go Time."
- Thanksgiving Day (Morning): This is when the heavy hitters like Best Buy and Kohl’s push their "online only" doorbusters. It usually happens around 1:00 AM EST.
- Thanksgiving Night: While you're in a food coma, the "official" Black Friday sales launch online.
- Black Friday (The Actual Day): This is mostly for the in-store experience now. If you want the physical thrill of the crowd, this is it. But honestly? The online deals are almost always the same.
- Saturday and Sunday: The "lull." This is when retailers try to clear out the stuff that didn't sell on Friday. You can find some weirdly deep discounts on clothes and home decor during this window.
- Cyber Monday: The grand finale. This is traditionally the biggest day for tech and office supplies.
It’s worth noting that the "Cyber Monday" distinction is fading. Most stores just call it "Cyber Week" now. Adobe reported that in 2024, consumers spent a record $12.4 billion on Cyber Monday alone, proving that we’re still suckers for a countdown timer.
The Myth of the "Biggest Discount"
Here is the truth: not everything is cheaper on Black Friday. Experts at WalletHub and Consumer Reports have analyzed thousands of "deals" only to find that about 10-15% of Black Friday items were actually cheaper earlier in the year or will be cheaper in January.
Television manufacturers are famous for "derivative models." These are TVs made specifically for Black Friday with cheaper components, fewer HDMI ports, and lower-quality panels. They look like a steal, but they aren't the same models you see in reviews throughout the year. If you’re looking at a TV and the model number ends in a weird string of letters you can’t find anywhere else, walk away.
What to Actually Buy (and What to Skip)
- Buy: Large appliances, mid-range laptops, video games, and small kitchen tech (Air fryers, Instant Pots).
- Skip: Furniture (wait for Presidents' Day), Winter clothes (wait for January clearance), and high-end jewelry.
Strategies for the Modern Shopper
If you’re serious about when Black Friday shopping starts for your specific wishlist, you need to use tools. CamelCamelCamel is a godsend for Amazon shoppers. It shows you a price history graph so you can see if that "50% off" deal is actually just the price it’s been all year. Honey or Capital One Shopping can also track price drops across different sites automatically.
Also, check the return policies. Some stores like Target and Amazon extend their return windows for the holidays, meaning anything bought in November can be returned through late January. This is your safety net. If you buy something and the price drops even lower on Cyber Monday, you can often ask for a price match or just return and rebuy.
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The Power of the Cart
A pro tip that actually works: Put items in your cart a few days before the sale starts. Log in to your account. Then, leave. Often, retailers will send you an "abandoned cart" discount code or a notification the second that specific item goes on sale. It saves you the stress of hunting through the homepage madness.
Beyond the Big Box Stores
We often focus on the giants, but small businesses and direct-to-consumer brands have their own rhythm. Many "indie" brands have moved toward "Green Monday" or "Small Business Saturday." If you're looking for specialized hobby gear or high-end apparel, those mid-weekend slots are often more fruitful than the Friday frenzy.
The psychology of the "countdown" is a powerful drug. Retailers use bright red text and ticking clocks to make you feel like you’re losing out. But remember, there is almost always another sale. The "Last Chance" email you get on Sunday? It's usually followed by a "New Deals Added" email on Monday morning.
Actionable Steps for Your Shopping Plan
Stop waiting for a specific date. The "perfect" time to shop is a moving target. To win, you need a system, not a calendar invite for Friday morning.
- Set Price Alerts Now: Use a browser extension to track the 5-10 items you actually need. Don't browse aimlessly; that’s how you end up with a third waffle maker.
- Check Membership Early Access: Walmart+ and Amazon Prime members often get a 24-hour head start on the best deals. If you're eyeing a high-demand item like a gaming console, that membership is basically the cost of admission.
- Audit the Model Numbers: Before buying tech, Google the specific model number. If it only appears in Black Friday ads, it’s a "holiday special" with potentially lower specs.
- Ignore the "MSRP": Retailers love to show a "was" price that hasn't been relevant for months. Look at the "current" price versus the price from three months ago.
- Focus on the Thursday Night Window: For online shopping, the period between 8:00 PM and midnight on Thanksgiving is statistically when the most inventory is available at the lowest prices.
By the time the sun rises on Friday, the "pros" are already done. They're back in bed or eating leftovers, watching the rest of the world fight over what’s left on the shelves. Get your list ready by the second week of November and be prepared to strike the moment the price hits your target.