If you’ve been looking at your grocery bill or checking the price of a new laptop lately, you've probably heard the rumblings. People keep asking, "When are the tariffs coming?" It’s a bit of a trick question. Honestly, they aren't just "coming"—for a lot of industries, they’re already here, and 2026 is shaping up to be the year they actually start to bite.
Right now, we are in the middle of a massive shift in how the U.S. does business with the rest of the world. Since early 2025, the Trump administration has been aggressive with trade hammers like the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and Section 232.
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But there’s a lot of confusion. Some people think there's one single date when everything gets more expensive. It doesn’t work like that. It’s more like a series of waves. Some hit last year, some are hitting this morning, and the biggest ones are scheduled for later this summer and into 2027.
The Current State of Play: What’s Already Live
Let’s get the facts straight. If you're importing goods today, you're likely already paying more than you were two years ago. On April 5, 2025, a baseline 10% tariff was slapped on almost all countries. A few days later, on April 9, that jumped for dozens of countries that have trade deficits with the U.S.
Basically, the administration decided that if a country sells us more than they buy from us, they get a "reciprocal" tax.
As of January 2026, here is what the landscape looks like:
- China: You're looking at a 10% "pause" rate on most things, but it's incredibly volatile. There was a temporary truce reached in late October 2025, but that doesn't mean the old 301 tariffs went away. They are stacked on top.
- Mexico and Canada: This is where it gets messy. Mexico is currently facing a 30% rate on many goods, and Canada is at 35% for anything that doesn't strictly follow USMCA rules.
- Steel and Aluminum: These were some of the first to go up. In June 2025, the rate for global steel and aluminum imports was hiked to 50%. The UK got a bit of a pass at 25%, but for everyone else, it’s a heavy lift.
The 2026 Timeline: Mark Your Calendars
If you feel like you’ve missed the boat, don't worry—or maybe do worry. The next few months have specific "drop dates" for new or adjusted tariffs.
February 2026: The Solar Cliff
Keep an eye on February. Section 201 safeguards on solar cells and modules are set to expire. While that sounds like a good thing for prices, the administration is widely expected to renew them or replace them with even stiffer penalties to protect domestic "green" manufacturing.
July 1, 2026: The Big USMCA Review
This is the date everyone in the auto and agricultural sectors is circling in red. It’s the six-year review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. While it’s technically a "review," President Trump has signaled he wants to use this as a leverage point. We could see the 10% potash and energy tariffs on Canada get even more complicated here.
Ongoing Section 232 Investigations
The Department of Commerce has a bunch of "probes" open right now. These are the "hidden" tariffs. They include:
- Semiconductors (Investigation started April 2025)
- Pharmaceuticals and Medical Equipment
- Drones and Robotics
- Wind Turbines
When do these land? Usually, once an investigation is finished, the President has 90 days to act. Most experts, including those at the Congressional Research Service, expect several of these to wrap up in mid-2026.
Why the 60% China Tariff Hasn’t "Hit" Yet
During the campaign, the 60% tariff on Chinese goods was the headline. If you're wondering why your iPhone didn't suddenly triple in price on Inauguration Day, it's because of the "Truce and Negotiate" strategy.
In October 2025, the U.S. and China reached a temporary trade truce. It basically put the 60% nuclear option on ice while they talk about "Phase One" compliance. But don't get comfortable. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is currently investigating China’s semiconductor policies. They’ve already said that while they might not add new 301 tariffs this month, they are looking at a major rate hike in June 2027.
The strategy is "maximum pressure." The threat of the 60% is being used as a leash. If those negotiations sour—and they often do—that 60% could be triggered via an executive order with almost zero warning.
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The Supreme Court Factor
There is one massive wildcard that could stop the tariffs in their tracks: Learning Resources v. Trump.
The Supreme Court heard arguments on November 5, 2025, regarding whether the President actually has the power to use the IEEPA to slap tariffs on countries for things like "migration" or "fentanyl."
A ruling is expected in early 2026. If the Court rules against the administration, we could see a chaotic "tariff refund" scenario where billions of dollars have to be paid back to importers. But if they side with the White House, it's green lights all the way for the rest of the term.
What This Actually Means for Your Wallet
Let's talk real world. The Tax Foundation estimate for 2026 is that the average U.S. household will see an increased cost of about $1,500 this year due to these trade shifts.
It’s not just "imported" stuff. If a U.S. company makes a washing machine but uses imported steel and a Chinese-made motor, that machine gets more expensive. We saw this in August 2025 when copper prices surged after a 50% tariff was placed on semi-finished copper products.
Actionable Steps for 2026
You can't control global trade policy, but you can hedge against it.
First, if you are planning a major purchase that relies on heavy machinery or electronics—like a new HVAC system or a fleet of vehicles—do it before July. The USMCA review in July is a high-risk event for price spikes in the auto and construction sectors.
Second, check the labels. The administration has ended "de minimis" duty-free treatment. This was the rule that let you buy cheap stuff from sites like Temu or Shein without paying duties if the order was under $800. Effective August 29, 2025, that's gone. Expect an extra 30% to 50% charge on those packages now.
Third, watch the news for the "Section 232" results. If you work in tech or healthcare, the semiconductor and pharma investigations are your early warning system. When those reports go to the President's desk, you usually have about three months before the price at the counter changes.
The tariffs aren't a single event. They are a climate. And right now, the forecast is looking pretty expensive.
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Track the following specifics to stay ahead of the next wave:
- Monitor the Learning Resources v. Trump decision (Expected Q1 2026) to see if current IEEPA tariffs remain legal.
- Audit your supply chain for "transshipment" goods—items made in China but shipped through Vietnam or Malaysia—as these are now facing a 40% penalty.
- Prepare for the June 2026 "Steel-Derivative" deadline where many current exemptions for Canadian steel used in food packaging are set to expire.