If you’ve been enjoying the weirdly mild start to the week in the city, I have some bad news. The honeymoon is officially over. Tomorrow, Thursday, January 15, 2026, New York is getting a massive reality check as a sharp cold front drags the region back into a proper East Coast winter. Honestly, the drop is going to be jarring. We're looking at a high of about 40°F to 42°F, but that number is a bit of a lie because it'll likely hit early in the day and then just plummet.
By the time you’re heading home from work, or grabbing a drink in the Village, it’s going to feel like a completely different season. The overnight low is diving down to a biting 20°F to 24°F.
What's the weather in New York tomorrow for your commute?
Basically, the morning starts messy. There’s a lingering 20% to 30% chance of some light snow or a rain-snow mix during the early hours, specifically before 8:00 AM. It’s not going to be a blizzard by any means—don’t go looking for your sled—but the National Weather Service is keeping a close eye on "slick spots." If you're driving in from Westchester or across the Verrazzano, just be careful on the ramps.
The sky will probably stay pretty gloomy and overcast for most of the morning. However, we might actually see the sun poke through by the afternoon.
The real story isn't the snow; it’s the wind. We are expecting sustained winds coming out of the West/Southwest at around 15 to 18 mph, with gusts potentially hitting 25 mph. When you combine a 40-degree temperature with a 20-mph wind whipping between skyscrapers, the "RealFeel" is going to hover in the high 20s or low 30s all day.
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Breaking down the hourly vibe
If you have to be outside, here is how the day actually looks:
Between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM, it's peak dampness. You'll want a waterproof shell. The temperature will be sitting right around 38°F. Any moisture left on the ground from the previous night's rain could be slushy.
By noon, the clouds start to break up a little. This is the "warmest" part of the day at 41°F. It sounds decent on paper, but the wind will be at its peak here. If you’re walking to lunch, that wind will cut right through a light sweater.
Sunset is at 4:53 PM. Once the sun goes down, the bottom falls out. By 8:00 PM, we are looking at 30°F, and it just keeps dropping from there.
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The "Flash Freeze" Risk
One thing local meteorologists are talking about for tomorrow is the rapid temperature drop. Because we had rain earlier in the week and some lingering moisture, the sudden dive to 20°F tomorrow night creates a risk for a "flash freeze" on untreated sidewalks and side streets.
Black ice is a nightmare in New York. If you’re out late, maybe walking the dog or coming back from a show, watch those subway grates and metal plates. They’ll freeze way faster than the concrete.
Is it actually going to snow?
Not really. While the "What's the weather in New York tomorrow" search results might show some snowflake icons, the accumulation for the five boroughs is expected to be basically zero. If you see anything, it’ll be those tiny, annoying grains that don’t even stick to the grass.
Upstate is a different story. If you’re planning to head toward the Hudson Valley or the Catskills tomorrow, they are under a much more serious watch with several inches expected. But here in the city? It's just a cold, windy transition day.
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How to actually dress for this
Look, I’ve lived through enough NYC winters to know that the "big coat" isn't always the answer if you're riding the subway. The stations are still going to be 15 degrees warmer than the street, and you’ll sweat.
Instead of one giant parka, do the three-layer thing:
- Base: A light Uniqlo Heattech or a thin long-sleeve.
- Mid: A wool sweater or a fleece.
- Top: A wind-blocking coat.
Since the wind is the main character tomorrow, a scarf is actually more important than a hat. If you can keep the wind from blowing down your neck, you'll be fine. If you’re wearing sneakers, make sure they have some grip; those smooth-soled fashion boots are a death trap on a frosty NYC sidewalk.
Looking ahead to the weekend
Tomorrow is really just the opening act. Friday stays cold, and there’s a much more interesting system moving in for Saturday night into Sunday. We could see some actual, measurable snow by then. But for Thursday, it’s all about the wind and that sharp drop into the 20s.
Keep an eye on the MTA app if you’re commuting. While the weather shouldn't cause major train delays, wind and cold can sometimes mess with the older outdoor tracks in Queens and Brooklyn.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your radiators tonight; if they haven't been on much lately, they’re about to work overtime.
- Dig out your heavy gloves and a wind-resistant jacket before you go to bed.
- Give yourself an extra 10 minutes for the morning commute just in case of slushy stairs or platform ice.
- If you're a pet owner, remember that the salt they put on the sidewalks can burn paws—rinse them off when you get back inside.