Honestly, if you told a Denver fan two years ago that they’d be sitting on a 14-3 record with the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they’d probably have asked what you were drinking. But here we are. It’s January 2026, and the vibe around Empower Field at Mile High is electric. People keep asking what's the score with the Denver Broncos, and the short answer is: they’re the team to beat in the postseason.
They just wrapped up a dominant regular season by suffocating the Los Angeles Chargers 19-3. It wasn't flashy. Bo Nix didn't throw for five touchdowns, and the offense actually looked a little clunky at times. But that’s the thing about this Sean Payton squad—they don't always need to be pretty to be effective. They squeezed the life out of the Chargers, clinched the top seed, and earned themselves a much-needed bye week.
Now, the real test starts.
The Current State of the Denver Broncos
The regular season is in the rearview mirror, and the "score" isn't just about the numbers on the board. It's about momentum. Denver finished the year 14-3, tying a franchise record for wins. That is massive. We're talking 1998 levels of success here. They’ve locked up the AFC West and ensured that the road to the Super Bowl goes through the thin air of Colorado.
Right now, the Broncos are preparing to host the Buffalo Bills this Saturday, January 17, at 2:30 p.m. MT.
Recent Results and That No. 1 Seed
The path to this point was a bit of a rollercoaster, even if the record looks pristine.
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- Week 18: A 19-3 win over the Chargers. The defense was the star. Ja'Quan McMillian had a 45-yard pick-six that basically iced it.
- Week 17: A gritty 20-13 victory against the Chiefs on Christmas Day. Beating KC twice in one season? That’s how you win over a city.
- Week 16: A weird 34-20 loss to the Jaguars. It was a wake-up call. Nix threw for a ton of yards, but the team just couldn't find the end zone when it mattered.
The defense has been the backbone. They finished the regular season ranked 3rd in the league in points allowed, giving up just 18.3 per game. When your defense is that stingy, you don't need Bo Nix to be Patrick Mahomes every week. You just need him to be smart.
Bo Nix and the Sean Payton Evolution
Let's talk about the kid. Bo Nix is in his second year, and you can see the "Payton Effect" taking hold. He finished the season with 3,931 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Those aren't MVP numbers, but they are "winning quarterback" numbers.
He’s gutty.
Payton has been vocal about how much Nix has grown, especially in his ability to handle the mental side of the game. However, there’s a catch. The "score" with the offense lately has been a little concerning. Over the last three games, the unit has sputtered. They didn't even score an offensive touchdown against the Chargers in the finale. Was Payton "dumbing down" the playbook to hide things for the playoffs? He says no. He says they just need to play better.
The matchup against Buffalo is going to be a chess match. The Bills love to disguise their coverages, and Nix has historically struggled a bit when safeties rotate late. He's completing about 61% of his passes against disguised looks compared to his 63.4% season average. It sounds like a small difference, but in the divisional round, that’s the margin between a win and a flight to Cancun.
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Injury Report: Who's Coming Back?
If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic about the Divisional Round, look at the training table. The Broncos are getting healthy at the exact right time.
Dre Greenlaw is back. The linebacker has been dealing with a nagging hamstring injury since the Jacksonville game, but he was a limited participant in practice this Tuesday. Seeing him moving "fluidly" on the field is a huge sigh of relief for DC Vance Joseph. Greenlaw is a playmaker. In just eight games this year, he’s put up 43 tackles and an interception. He changes the way this defense flies around.
Then you’ve got the IR returns.
- Lucas Krull (TE): He’s been out since October, but the team just designated him for return. He adds a much-needed big target for Nix in the red zone.
- Drew Sanders (LB): Another versatile piece who has been practicing in his 21-day window.
- John Franklin-Myers (DL): He missed Week 18 with a hip issue but was a full participant on Tuesday.
Basically, every single player on the 53-man roster practiced this week. That is unheard of in mid-January. It gives Denver a depth advantage that the Bills—who just lost Gabe Davis to a torn ACL—simply don't have right now.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Team
People see the 14-3 record and think this is a high-flying offensive juggernaut. It’s not. Honestly, it’s a throwback team. They win with a punishing run game (when it's working), a quarterback who avoids the catastrophic mistake, and a defense that makes life miserable for opposing coordinators.
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They’re also incredibly disciplined. They aren't beating themselves with penalties or stupid turnovers. They finished the season with only 17 giveaways, which puts them in the top tier of the league for ball security.
The "score" with the Denver Broncos is that they are a "floor" team. Their floor is very high. Even when they play a "bad" game, they’re still in it because the defense keeps the score low. That makes them a nightmare in the playoffs where one bad bounce can end your season.
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you're following the Broncos heading into the weekend, here is what actually matters for the matchup against the Bills:
- Watch the Red Zone: Denver’s offense has been settling for field goals way too often lately. Wil Lutz is great, but you can't beat Josh Allen with three-point increments. They have to find Courtland Sutton in the end zone.
- The Greenlaw Factor: Keep an eye on how much Dre Greenlaw plays. If he's on a snap count, the middle of the field might be vulnerable to Dalton Kincaid.
- Pressure Josh Allen: The Bills' QB is "sore" coming out of their Wild Card win. Denver’s pass rush, led by Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen, needs to make him move. An uncomfortable Josh Allen is a Josh Allen who throws interceptions.
- Weather Advantage: It’s January in Denver. The altitude and the cold are real factors. Denver is 8-1 at home this year for a reason.
The Broncos have the talent and the coaching to go all the way. The question is whether Bo Nix can shake off the late-season rust and execute the "Payton Plan" under the brightest lights he's ever seen. If the defense holds steady and the offense can just find two or three touchdowns, Denver should find themselves in the AFC Championship game for the first time in a decade.
Keep your eyes on the practice reports through Thursday. If Greenlaw and Franklin-Myers stay off the "questionable" list, Denver is in a prime position to defend Mile High.