If you’re checking your phone to see what's the price of crude today, you’re probably seeing a lot of green on the screen for the first time in a while. As of Friday, January 16, 2026, the markets are finally clawing back some ground. Brent crude is hovering around $64.26 a barrel, while the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is sitting just under the $60 mark at $59.67.
It feels like a bit of a relief for the bulls, but don't let the 1% bump fool you. Honestly, the vibe in the energy sector right now is "cautious" at best. We just came off a brutal Thursday where prices tanked by 4% in a single session. Why? Because the "risk premium"—that extra tax we all pay because of the fear of war—suddenly evaporated. One day people are terrified of U.S. strikes on Iran, and the next, the news cycle shifts, and everyone realizes the world is actually drowning in oil.
What's the Price of Crude Today and Why Is It Moving?
The immediate jump we’re seeing today is basically a technical correction. Traders hate leaving a 4% drop on the table without at least trying to buy the dip. But the real story behind what's the price of crude today isn't about the charts; it's about a massive shift in how the U.S. is handling the Middle East.
President Trump recently signaled a de-escalation in tensions with Iran, specifically noting that the crackdown on protesters there seems to be easing. For oil traders, "de-escalation" is just another word for "sell." When the threat of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked disappears, the price of oil loses its floor.
Then you’ve got the domestic stuff. The latest EIA report was a total gut punch for anyone hoping for higher prices. U.S. commercial crude stocks jumped by 3.4 million barrels last week. Analysts were expecting a drawdown. Instead, we got a surplus.
The Real Benchmarks Right Now
- Brent Crude: $64.26 (The global standard).
- WTI Crude: $59.67 (The U.S. standard).
- OPEC Basket: Roughly $61.85 (What the cartels are watching).
- Natural Gas: Holding steady-ish at $3.15.
It’s kind of wild to think that just a few years ago, we were worried about $100 oil forever. Now, we’re looking at a world where $60 feels like a struggle to maintain.
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The "Super Glut" Nobody Wants to Talk About
If you look at the long-term forecasts from the heavy hitters like J.P. Morgan or the EIA, they aren't exactly painting a rosy picture for 2026. There’s this looming "super glut" on the horizon. We’re talking about a projected surplus of 3.7 to 4 million barrels per day.
To put that in perspective, that’s more excess oil than we saw during parts of the pandemic.
China is a huge part of this puzzle. For years, China’s thirst for oil kept prices high. But lately, their refineries are slowing down. In late 2025, Chinese crude throughput hit a six-month low. They’ve been stockpiling—basically filling up their "rainy day" tanks to the tune of 1.4 billion barrels—but they aren't buying new stuff at the rate they used to. When the world's biggest customer stops ordering dessert, the restaurant starts to worry.
Why 2026 Feels Different for Oil
A big reason what's the price of crude today matters so much is that it reflects a change in OPEC+ strategy. For a long time, the group (led by Saudi Arabia and Russia) was happy to cut production to keep prices high. They wanted that $80 or $90 sweet spot.
But there’s a limit to how much market share you can give away to the Americans before you start losing your grip.
U.S. production is currently holding near 13.75 million barrels per day. That is a staggering amount of oil. It means that every time OPEC cuts, a driller in Texas or North Dakota just flips a switch and fills the gap. There’s a prevailing theory that OPEC+ might just give up on price floors and start pumping for volume instead. If they do that, $50 oil isn't just a possibility; it’s an inevitability.
The Trump Factor and the $50 Target
The White House hasn't been shy about its energy goals. The current administration has made it clear: they want oil at $50 or lower. They see it as the ultimate weapon against inflation.
Natasha Kaneva over at J.P. Morgan recently noted that the "Trump put"—a financial term for a safety net—doesn't really apply to energy. The government isn't going to step in to save oil companies unless prices drop so low that the shale industry literally starts collapsing. Most experts think that "break-even" point is somewhere around $40 to $50 for the big U.S. players.
So, if you're waiting for a massive spike back to $90, you might be waiting a long time.
What This Means for Your Wallet
Lower crude prices usually mean lower prices at the pump, but it’s not a 1-to-1 relationship. You have to factor in refinery margins and those pesky environmental taxes.
The EIA is currently projecting that U.S. gasoline will average about $2.90 per gallon for most of 2026. If you live on the West Coast, you’re still going to pay a premium because of local regulations, but for the rest of the country, the days of $4 gas might be in the rearview mirror for a bit.
Actionable Insights for the Week Ahead
If you’re trading this or just trying to budget for your business, here’s what you need to actually watch:
- Monitor the $55 Support Level: For WTI, $55 is the psychological line in the sand. If it breaks below that, the sell-off could get ugly fast.
- Watch the Dollar: The U.S. dollar is hitting six-week highs. Since oil is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback usually means cheaper oil. It’s a seesaw.
- Inventory Reports: Wednesday's EIA data is the heartbeat of the market. If we see another massive build-up in stocks, expect what's the price of crude today to be a much lower number by next Friday.
The bottom line? We are in a "supply-first" market. Geopolitical scares provide temporary spikes, but the sheer volume of oil being pulled out of the ground is the gravity that keeps pulling the price back down.
Keep an eye on the January 20th contract rollovers. As traders move their positions to the February and March contracts, we often see "volatility clusters" where prices swing wildly for no apparent reason other than paperwork. Stay sharp.