If you’ve been scrolling through social media lately, you’ve probably seen the blurry, vertical videos of smoke rising over Tehran or heard whispers about a "total internet blackout." Honestly, trying to piece together what’s going on in Iran right now feels like trying to solve a puzzle where half the pieces are hidden under a rug.
Things are moving fast.
It’s not just "more of the same." What started as a localized protest over the price of bread and the collapse of the rial has spiraled into what many experts are calling a "proto-revolution." As of mid-January 2026, the situation has reached a boiling point that’s making the 2022 and 2019 protests look like a prelude.
The Spark: Why the Streets Are Full Again
People usually think these things happen overnight. They don’t. The current wave of unrest officially kicked off on December 28, 2025. It started at the Grand Bazaar in Tehran. Shopkeepers, who are usually the backbone of the conservative merchant class, basically said "enough." They closed their shutters because the Iranian rial hit a record low, and inflation is currently screaming past 40%.
Think about that for a second. Imagine your rent and grocery bill jumping by nearly half in a year while your paycheck stays stagnant.
But it wasn’t just the money. In October 2025, a major regime-affiliated bank, Bank Ayandeh, dissolved after losing roughly $5 billion. Instead of fixing the system, the Central Bank just printed more money to cover the losses. It was like throwing gasoline on a kitchen fire.
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By January 8, 2026, the protests shifted. They weren't just about the economy anymore. People started shouting for the end of the religious dictatorship. It spread to all 31 provinces.
The Crackdown: A Massive Information Blackout
Right now, the Iranian government has slammed the door on the outside world. Since January 8, there has been a near-total nationwide internet shutdown.
The regime is using this silence to carry out what Amnesty International and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) describe as "unprecedented brutality." We’re talking about security forces stationed on street corners with machine guns. In places like Shiraz and Kermanshah, there are reports of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) using attack helicopters and lethal force on a scale we haven't seen in decades.
"The scale of deaths and injuries is incomparable to previous waves," witnesses told BBC Persian recently.
How bad is it?
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- The Death Toll: While the government admits to nothing, human rights groups like HRANA and the MEK estimate the toll is anywhere between 2,600 and 3,000 people killed in just the last three weeks. Some unconfirmed reports suggest it could be even higher.
- The Arrests: Over 18,000 people are believed to be in custody.
- The Narrative: The state is calling everyone on the street "terrorists." They’re even pressuring families to sign papers saying their loved ones were killed by "outside agitators" before they’ll release the bodies for burial.
What's Going On In Iran With the Rest of the World?
This isn’t just happening in a vacuum. The international stakes are incredibly high right now.
Donald Trump, recently back in the White House, has been vocal. He tweeted (or "posted") on January 13 that "help is on its way" to the Iranian people. This has put the region on a hair-trigger. On January 15, Iran actually shut down its airspace for four hours. Everyone thought a missile strike from the U.S. or Israel was imminent.
It’s a game of chicken.
The U.S. and Israel already hit Iran’s nuclear facilities back in June 2025, and the UN reimposed "snapback" sanctions shortly after. Iran is backed into a corner. Their "Axis of Resistance"—groups like Hezbollah and Hamas—has been significantly weakened over the last two years. For the first time, the regime feels like it's fighting a war on two fronts: one against its own people and one against a "Maximum Pressure" campaign from abroad.
The Border Factor
It's not just the big cities. There is serious fighting in the Kurdish and Baloch regions. Groups like the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) have claimed responsibility for attacking IRGC bases. The government is struggling because they have to move troops from the cities to the borders, stretching their resources thin.
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Is the Regime Actually Falling?
That’s the million-dollar question.
Honestly, most analysts—including those from the UN and Western intelligence—say the security apparatus is still intact. The regime is "securitizing" society. They’ve imposed curfews. They’ve barricaded cities with concrete walls.
But there’s a catch.
Keeping hundreds of thousands of soldiers on the streets indefinitely is expensive and exhausting. Security forces get tired. They have families who are also suffering from the 40% inflation. If the rank-and-file soldiers start refusing to shoot, that’s when the "proto-revolution" becomes a real one.
What You Can Actually Do
Staying informed is the first step, but it’s hard when the internet is cut off. If you want to follow what’s going on in Iran accurately, look for sources that use satellite data and "on-the-ground" networks that bypass state controls.
- Follow Verified Human Rights Monitors: Groups like Hengaw (for Kurdish regions) and HRANA are often the first to get data out through VPNs and satellite links.
- Watch the Currency Markets: The value of the Rial on the "open market" (the bonbast rate) is a better pulse of the regime's stability than any official statement.
- Support Digital Circumvention: Many activists rely on Starlink or specialized VPNs to send videos out. Supporting organizations that provide these tools directly impacts the flow of information.
- Pressure for Transparency: International bodies like the UN Security Council are currently debating "decisive action." Public awareness keeps the pressure on global leaders to not look the other way while the blackout continues.
The situation is volatile. What happens tonight in a neighborhood in Tehran could change the map of the Middle East by tomorrow morning.