It’s January 2026, and the "what ifs" are officially over. If you spent the last year wondering what will happen if Trump wins the election, you don’t have to guess anymore. We are living in it. The dust from the 2024 race hasn't just settled; it’s been paved over by a flurry of executive orders, "reciprocal" tariffs, and a massive shift in how the federal government actually functions.
Honestly, it’s been a wild ride. Some people are seeing their 401(k)s react to new deregulations, while others are staring at grocery receipts that look a lot different than they did eighteen months ago. You’ve probably noticed the vibe has changed—it's more transactional, more "America First," and definitely louder.
The Tariff Wall and Your Wallet
The biggest shock to the system has been the trade war. Or, as the administration calls it, "The Great Rebalancing." Basically, the days of 2.5% average tariff rates are dead and gone. By late 2025, that rate spiked to nearly 17%, and at one point earlier in the year, it even touched 27%. That is the highest we’ve seen in over a hundred years.
So, what does that actually mean for you?
Well, if you’ve tried to buy a new dishwasher or a six-pack of beer lately, you’ve felt the pinch. Aluminum and steel tariffs were some of the first to hit, quickly followed by a 50% tariff on copper. Since we import almost half our copper—mostly from Chile—prices for electronics and construction materials went through the roof.
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But here’s the weird part: inflation didn't explode the way some economists predicted. It’s hovering around 2.7% as of last month. The Yale Budget Lab and other experts are scratching their heads because while household costs rose (about $3,800 per family by some estimates), the "shock" was partially absorbed by businesses cutting margins or shifting supply chains. It’s a mess, but it’s a fascinating one.
The Great Deregulation: "Energy Dominance"
If you work in oil, gas, or even "Beautiful Clean Coal," 2025 was your year. The Department of Energy didn't just trim the hedges; they took a chainsaw to the Code of Federal Regulations. We’re talking about 47 major regulations slashed in a single milestone, including a lot of those appliance standards for showerheads and microwave ovens that the President famously hates.
The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has been busy too.
- Drilling permits are up over 60% compared to the previous administration.
- 82% of Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve is now open for leasing.
- Environmental Impact Statements? For over 3,000 leases, they simply aren't required anymore.
The goal is "Energy Dominance," and the strategy is "Drill, Baby, Drill." By removing the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) "regulatory reign of terror," as the administration puts it, infrastructure projects that used to take a decade to approve are moving in months. Whether that’s a win for the economy or a disaster for the planet depends entirely on who you ask at the dinner table.
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Immigration and the "Self-Deportation" Shift
We can't talk about what will happen if Trump wins the election without looking at the border. It has been the most aggressive pillar of the second term. The administration claims that over 2.5 million people have left the U.S. since the inauguration.
Now, look at the math, because it's specific. About 605,000 were forced deportations. The rest—roughly 1.9 million—were "self-deportations." The strategy here wasn't just raids; it was making life so difficult and legally precarious for undocumented individuals that they chose to leave. They even launched a "CBP Home" app that offers a free flight and $1,000 to those willing to leave voluntarily.
However, it hasn't been smooth. The use of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to bypass due process led to a massive legal standoff that eventually landed in the Supreme Court. While the administration hit its numbers, the cost has been staggering—estimates suggest we're on track to spend nearly $1 trillion over a decade on this enforcement machine.
A Transactional World: Foreign Policy in 2026
The "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine. That’s the new buzzword in D.C. It basically tells the rest of the world that the Western Hemisphere is our backyard, and we’re going to be very hands-on about who plays in it.
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Relations with Europe are... tense. After the "Liberation Day" tariffs hit the EU in April 2025, things got ugly. But then came the Anchorage Summit in August. Trump met with Putin, and while there wasn't a "peace treaty" for Ukraine in 24 hours like the campaign promised, the vibe shifted. U.S. aid to Ukraine became a "subscription service"—if you want the weapons, you have to show a path to a ceasefire. It’s a "fees-for-service" model for NATO too. If you don't hit the 2% GDP spending target, don't expect a callback.
Dismantling the "Deep State"
Education Secretary Linda McMahon has been leading the charge to basically turn the lights off at the Department of Education. The plan is to move all that authority back to the states. While the department still exists on paper (closing it requires Congress), its budget has been gutted.
And then there's Schedule F. This was the big one. By reclassifying thousands of civil servants as "at-will" employees, the President has been able to replace career bureaucrats with loyalists. The "Deep State" didn't just shrink; it was rebranded.
What You Should Do Now
So, the landscape has shifted. If you’re trying to navigate this new reality, here is the "cheat sheet" for 2026:
- Hedge Against Hardware Costs: With copper and aluminum tariffs still volatile, if you're planning a home renovation or need a new fleet of vehicles for your business, lock in prices now. The "trade peace" with China is fragile and expires at the end of 2026.
- Watch the "Make America Healthy Again" (MAHA) Changes: The integration of AI into pediatric cancer research and the shift in FDA/HHS priorities means new opportunities in private health tech, but less federal support for traditional ACA-style programs.
- Localize Your Education Strategy: With the federal Department of Education fading, your local school board and state capital now have 90% of the power over curriculum and funding. Get involved there if you care about what’s being taught.
- Crypto is Institutionalized: The national Bitcoin stockpile is a real thing now. If you’ve been ignoring digital assets, it might be time to at least understand how the new "Bitcoin-friendly" SEC is changing the rules for 401(k) investors.
The 2024 election didn't just change the President; it changed the operating system of the country. Whether you're a fan of the new "American Energy Dominance" or worried about the "Transatlantic Divide," the rules of the game have been rewritten.