Honestly, looking back at the betting markets for Super Bowl LIX feels like a fever dream now that we're deep into the 2026 playoff cycle. People keep asking me, "What were the odds for the Super Bowl last year?" as if it was some predictable blowout from the jump. It wasn't. Not even close. If you remember correctly, the lead-up to that February night in New Orleans was defined by one massive question: could Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs actually pull off the first-ever three-peat?
The sportsbooks were sweating. Vegas didn't know what to do with a Philadelphia Eagles team that looked like a freight train with no brakes.
What Were the Odds for the Super Bowl LIX Matchup?
When the dust settled after the Conference Championships, the opening line for Super Bowl LIX hit the boards with the Kansas City Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites. It was basically a coin flip. The total, or the over/under, sat right around 48.5 points.
Most of the early money actually poured in on the Chiefs. Why wouldn't it? They were the two-time defending champs. But as the week progressed, the "smart money" started looking at that Eagles defensive line and a guy named Saquon Barkley, who was basically playing like he’d been manufactured in a lab. By kickoff, the line hadn't moved much—the Chiefs closed as a slim -1.5 favorite—but the vibe in the sportsbooks had shifted dramatically.
If you were a moneyline bettor, you were looking at roughly -123 for the Chiefs and +104 for the Eagles. You're basically risking $123 to win $100 on KC, or betting $100 to win $104 on Philly.
The Odds Movement Nobody Expected
What’s wild is how the public perceived the "Chiefs Magic." We'd seen Mahomes pull rabbits out of hats for years. But the Eagles were different in 2025. They had the league's top-ranked defense. While the Chiefs were trying to make history, the Eagles were busy trying to break the game of football with their "Tush Push" and a rejuvenated Jalen Hurts.
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- Opening Spread: Chiefs -1.5
- Closing Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (though some books briefly touched -1)
- Over/Under: 48.5 (Closed slightly higher at some spots, around 49.5)
- Implied Probability: The odds suggested a 55% chance for a Chiefs victory.
The narrative was all about the "Three-Peat." It’s all anyone talked about on the pregame shows. But the bettors who actually dug into the trenches saw a mismatch. The Chiefs' offensive line was struggling with injuries, and Philly's pass rush was, frankly, terrifying.
Why the Final Score Stunned the Betting World
When we talk about what were the odds for the Super Bowl, we have to talk about the reality of the 40-22 final score. The Eagles didn't just win; they dismantled the dynasty. If you had the Eagles +1.5, you weren't even sweating by the third quarter.
Philadelphia went into the locker room at halftime up 24-0. Can you imagine the live betting odds at that point? The Chiefs, who were the favorites at kickoff, were suddenly massive underdogs in the live markets. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the Eagles held a 40-6 lead. The Chiefs tacked on some "garbage time" points to make the score look respectable, but for anyone who had the "Under," those late scores were a nightmare.
The game ended up flying Over the 48.5 total. It’s funny how that works. A game that felt like a defensive masterpiece for Philly still turned into a high-scoring affair because they simply couldn't stop scoring themselves.
Expert Nuance: The Mahomes Tax
There's this thing in sports betting called the "Mahomes Tax." Basically, the odds for the Chiefs are always a little bit worse for the bettor because the books know people will bet on Mahomes no matter what.
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In Super Bowl LIX, the "Mahomes Tax" was in full effect. On paper, and according to many advanced models like the ones used by CBS Sports or ESPN’s FPI, the Eagles should have probably been the favorites. But you can't make the defending champs an underdog when they haven't lost a playoff game in years. So, the books kept the Chiefs as the favorite, even though the "true" line might have favored Philly.
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Landscape
Now that we are in 2026, the betting landscape has shifted again. We aren't talking about Chiefs three-peats anymore. Instead, the Seattle Seahawks have emerged as the +270 favorites to win Super Bowl LX. It’s a whole new world. The Eagles are still in the mix, but the 49ers and the Bills are nipping at their heels.
If you're looking at the current 2026 odds, it's a mess of parity:
- Seahawks (+270): The new NFC powerhouse.
- Rams (+320): Never count out Sean McVay.
- Bills (+650): Josh Allen is still Josh Allen.
- Texans (+850): The dark horse that isn't really a dark horse anymore.
Actionable Betting Insights for the Next Big Game
If you're planning on getting some skin in the game for Super Bowl LX or any upcoming playoff matchups, stop looking at the "name" on the jersey. Last year proved that legacy doesn't cover spreads.
Track the Line Movement Early
The "sharp" bettors usually move the lines in the first 48 hours after they open. If you see a line move from -2 to -1, pay attention. It means the people who do this for a living are seeing something the general public isn't.
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Ignore the "Three-Peat" Style Narratives
The media loves a story. Odds, however, love data. The Eagles won LIX because their EPA (Expected Points Added) on defense was historically high, not because they were "due."
Watch the Injury Reports for Interior Linemen
Everyone watches the QB and the WRs. But Super Bowl LIX was won in the trenches. The Chiefs' inability to protect Mahomes against the Eagles' interior pressure was the reason that -1.5 spread was a trap.
Check the current divisional round lines today. If you see a favorite of more than 7 points, look at the underdog’s rushing success rate. In a high-stakes environment, a team that can shorten the game by running the ball—much like the Eagles did with Barkley—is always a dangerous bet to cover.
Keep an eye on the Seahawks' injury report as we head into the championship games. If their left tackle remains sidelined, that +270 "favorite" status might be a lot shakier than the books want you to believe.