Everything's go. The hatch is sealed. The astronauts are strapped in, probably thinking about their first real meal in six months. But back on Earth, everyone is asking the same frustratingly vague question: What time is splashdown?
If you’re looking for a simple "3:00 PM" answer, I’ve got some news for you. Spaceflight doesn't really work on a bus schedule. Just yesterday, January 15, 2026, the SpaceX Crew-11 mission hit the water at 3:41 a.m. EST (that was 12:41 a.m. for the folks watching in California). It was a rare predawn arrival, prompted by a "medical evacuation" that had the whole industry on edge.
But even with that success in the books, the timing for the next big one—Artemis II—is already shifting.
The Mystery of Splashdown Timing
The "what time is splashdown" question is actually a moving target. NASA and SpaceX don't just pick a time because it's convenient for the evening news. It's a brutal math problem involving orbital mechanics, the rotation of the Earth, and whether or not a random storm is brewing near San Diego.
For the upcoming Artemis II mission—the one where we finally send humans back around the Moon—the planned splashdown is currently penciled in for February 15, 2026.
But don't set your watch yet.
NASA officials, including the new Administrator Jared Isaacman, have been clear: that mid-February date depends entirely on a launch window that opens February 6. If the SLS rocket hits a "scrub" (which, let’s be honest, happens), the splashdown time slides right along with it.
Why the Clock Changes
Timing isn't just about the landing; it’s about the "deorbit burn."
About an hour and a half before the capsule hits the water, the spacecraft has to fire its thrusters to drop out of orbit. If they miss that window by even a few seconds, they’ll overshoot the landing site by hundreds of miles.
- Weather Checks: NASA does a "Go/No-Go" poll about six hours before splashdown. If the waves are higher than 7 feet or the wind is kicking up over 15 knots, they wave it off.
- Daylight vs. Night: Recovery teams really prefer daylight. It’s safer for the divers jumping out of helicopters to attach the lines. However, as we saw with Crew-11 this week, medical needs can force a "dark" splashdown.
- Orbital Plane: The International Space Station (ISS) passes over different parts of Earth at different times. The spacecraft has to wait for the "ground track" to align with one of the approved landing zones off the coast of Florida or California.
What Really Happened with Crew-11?
The Crew-11 splashdown was a bit of a nail-biter. Usually, these missions are planned months in advance with a "handover" period. This time, NASA had to pull Mike Fincke, Zena Cardman, Kimiya Yui, and Oleg Platonov out early.
Why the rush? A "medical concern" with one crew member meant they couldn't wait until late February.
They undocked on Wednesday evening, January 14, at 5:20 p.m. EST. From there, it was a 10.5-hour coast. If you were in the Bay Area, you might have seen it—a steady, bright light gliding across the sky around 12:20 a.m. local time. That wasn't a meteor; it was a $100 million spacecraft hitting the atmosphere at 17,500 mph.
The final "thwack" into the Pacific happened right on time at 3:41 a.m. EST. This was actually the first time an American-led mission ended early for health reasons. It proves that in space, the "time" is always subject to the human element.
Looking Ahead: Artemis II
The next time the world asks "what time is splashdown," it will be for the Orion capsule. Unlike the Dragon, which stays in Low Earth Orbit, Orion is coming back from the Moon.
It hits the atmosphere much faster—nearly 25,000 mph.
Because of that heat and speed, the "skip entry" technique is used. Think of it like skipping a stone across a pond. The capsule hits the air, bounces back up slightly to shed heat, and then descends for good. This adds a level of complexity to the timing that makes the SpaceX returns look easy.
How to Track Splashdown in Real-Time
Honestly, the best way to know the exact minute is to stop looking at static schedules. They’re almost always wrong by the time the day arrives.
- Follow the "Deorbit Burn" Announcement: This usually happens about 60 to 90 minutes before splashdown. Once that engine fires, the clock is set in stone.
- Watch the "Claw" Separation: For SpaceX missions, the "claw" (the umbilical connection between the capsule and the trunk) separates about 1 hour and 20 minutes before impact.
- Check the Recovery Ships: Ships like the Shannon or Megan have to be in position hours before. If you see them moving on maritime tracking apps, splashdown is imminent.
NASA+ and the SpaceX YouTube channel usually start their live "return coverage" about two hours before the actual splashdown. If the stream hasn't started, the timing has likely been pushed.
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The Practical Side of the Wait
Waiting for a splashdown is a test of patience. You’ll hear a lot of jargon: "apogee," "drogue chutes," and "plasma blackout." The blackout is the scariest part. For about six to seven minutes, the heat is so intense it creates a shroud of ionized gas around the capsule.
No radio signals get through.
NASA just waits. We all just wait. When you hear the flight controller say "Signal acquisition," you know they're about five minutes from hitting the water.
If you're planning a watch party for Artemis II in February, keep your schedule flexible. Space doesn't care about your calendar. It cares about physics, heat shields, and whether the Pacific Ocean is behaving itself.
Stay tuned to the NASA "Commercial Crew" blog or the official mission X (Twitter) accounts. They usually post updates every hour once the undocking process begins. For now, the safest bet for the next major arrival is the morning of February 15, but keep that "refresh" button handy as the date gets closer.
To keep tabs on the next arrival, monitor the official NASA launch and entry schedule, which is updated in real-time as orbital tracking data shifts. Keep an eye on the "NET" (No Earlier Than) designations, as these are the primary indicators of when the final countdown to splashdown actually begins. Once the deorbit burn is confirmed, you can calculate the landing within a three-minute window of accuracy.