If you’ve walked into a pharmacy lately or noticed more people hacking into their elbows at the grocery store, you already know something is up. It’s early 2026, and the viral landscape has shifted again. Honestly, keeping track of the letters and numbers feels like a full-time job.
So, let’s get straight to it. XFG, also known by its weather-themed nickname Stratus, is the dominant force right now. As of January 2026, it’s responsible for the vast majority of cases in the U.S., hovering somewhere around 60% to 80% depending on which state you’re looking at.
But it’s not alone. There’s a "cousin" strain called NB.1.8.1 (sometimes called Nimbus) that is also making the rounds.
These aren't brand new viruses. They are descendants of the Omicron family, which has basically become the great-great-grandparent of every variant we’ve seen for years.
The Current Heavy Hitter: XFG Stratus
XFG isn't just a random mutation; it’s a "recombinant" or hybrid. It basically took pieces of two older subvariants, LF.7 and LP.8.1.2, and mashed them together.
The result? A virus that binds tighter to your cells.
Dr. Magdalena Sobieszczyk from NewYork-Presbyterian notes that this tighter binding makes it spread like wildfire. If you feel like everyone you know has it, you’re probably right.
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Why it's spreading so fast
- Immune Evasion: It has "marginal" additional immune evasion. That’s scientist-speak for "it’s slightly better at dodging the antibodies you got from your last infection or your old vaccine."
- Waning Immunity: Most people got their last shot months ago. Protection naturally dips.
- Behavior: We’re back to normal life. Concerts, offices, and family dinners are the perfect playground for XFG.
What it Feels Like: The 2026 Symptom Profile
The most common question is usually, "How do I know if I have the current strain?"
Basically, it feels like a nasty cold or a mild flu for most people. The "razor blade" sore throat that people talked about with the Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) strain is still very much a thing with XFG Stratus.
You might wake up with a scratchy throat that turns into a full-blown ache within 24 hours. After that, the congestion kicks in.
It’s worth noting that loss of taste and smell—the hallmark of the early 2020 pandemic—is pretty rare now. Most people are reporting:
- A persistent, dry cough.
- Intense fatigue (the kind where you need a nap after a shower).
- A hoarse or "thick" feeling in the throat.
- Mild fever or chills.
Honestly, the symptoms are so similar to the flu and RSV that you really can’t tell the difference without a plastic stick and some reagent liquid.
Is the Vaccine Still Working?
The short answer is yes, but there's a catch.
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The 2025-2026 updated vaccine formula was actually designed to target the LP lineage (specifically LP.8.1). Since XFG is a descendant of that lineage, the match is pretty good.
Recent data from Pfizer and BioNTech shows that people who got the updated shot had a 4-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies against these specific strains.
It’s not a magic shield that prevents every sniffle. Instead, it’s like a high-quality seatbelt. You might still get into a "fender bender" (a mild infection), but it’s designed to keep you out of the hospital.
CDC data suggests that for high-risk folks—those over 65 or with underlying stuff like diabetes—the vaccine remains the best way to avoid severe outcomes.
Why 2026 Feels Different
We aren't seeing the massive spikes in hospitalizations that we saw in 2021 or 2022. That's the good news.
The CDC's Modeling and Forecasting data for January 2026 shows that while infections are "growing" in a few places like DC and Hawaii, they are actually "declining" or "stable" in the majority of states.
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We’ve reached a bit of a stalemate with the virus. It mutates to get around us, and our immune systems (via vaccines and prior infections) catch up.
What You Should Actually Do Now
If you’re feeling under the weather or just want to avoid the current wave, here is the pragmatic playbook for January 2026.
Test early. Don’t wait three days. The new variants have a shorter incubation period. If you feel a tickle in your throat, swab. If it's negative but you still feel like trash, test again 24 hours later.
Check your kit. Check the expiration dates on those tests in your medicine cabinet. Most of the ones from the 2024 surge are likely expired by now.
Prioritize ventilation. If you’re hosting people, crack a window. It sounds old-school, but moving air is still one of the best ways to keep the viral load down in a room.
Masking (When it makes sense). You don’t need to wear an N95 to walk your dog. But if you're stuck on a crowded flight or visiting an elderly relative in a nursing home, it's a smart move.
Get the updated shot. If you haven’t had the 2025-2026 formula yet, now is the time. It takes about two weeks for your body to build up those "Stratus-fighting" antibodies.
The reality is that COVID isn't going away, but it is becoming more predictable. We know the strains (XFG and NB.1.8.1), we know the symptoms (sore throat and fatigue), and we have the tools to handle them. Stay hydrated, get some rest, and don't panic—just stay informed.