Everyone has an opinion on what the "Trump trade" looks like. If you flip on CNBC or scroll through X, you'll hear the same three things: buy oil, buy banks, and buy private prisons. It sounds logical. But honestly? The market usually has a funny way of punishing the most "obvious" ideas. By the time a narrative becomes common knowledge, the smart money has often already moved on to the next thing.
Investing in a Trump 2.0 era isn't just about picking companies that donated to the campaign. It’s about understanding the collision of three specific policy pillars: aggressive deregulation, massive across-the-board tariffs, and a "Drill, Baby, Drill" energy stance that actually might lower the price of the very product those energy companies sell.
The Deregulation Tailwinds: Why Banks are Still the Big Play
If there is one thing Donald Trump hates, it’s a pile of paperwork and a slow-moving bureaucrat. His first term was a bonfire for regulations, and 2025 looks to be even more of the same. This is why you’ve seen the big banks—the "too big to fail" crowd—looking so healthy lately.
JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley aren't just sitting on cash; they are looking at a future where the "Basel III Endgame" (a set of international banking rules that would have forced them to hold way more capital) is basically dead on arrival. If banks don't have to lock up billions of dollars in "rainy day" reserves, they can use that money for buybacks, dividends, and—most importantly—lending.
But it's not just the giants. Small-cap banks and regional lenders often do even better in this environment. They don't have the massive compliance departments of a Goldman Sachs, so when rules get cut, the impact on their bottom line is relatively huge.
What to watch in Finance:
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM): The gold standard for a reason. CEO Jamie Dimon has already noted the "resilience" of the economy, and with less red tape, their M&A (mergers and acquisitions) desk could be incredibly busy.
- The Regional Bank ETF (KRE): This is a "basket" approach. Instead of betting on one local bank, you're betting on the whole sector benefiting from a hands-off Washington.
The Energy Paradox: More Oil Isn't Always More Profits
Here is where it gets tricky. People hear "pro-oil" and immediately think "buy Exxon." While ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are powerhouse companies, there’s a catch. If Trump successfully opens up federal lands and slashes the time it takes to get a drilling permit, the U.S. will likely flood the market with supply.
Basic economics kicks in: more supply equals lower prices.
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If the price of crude drops to $50 or $60 a barrel because the U.S. is pumping record amounts, the profit margins for the guys actually pulling it out of the ground might actually shrink.
The real winners? The "pick and shovel" companies. These are the firms that provide the equipment, the fracking technology, and the pipelines. They get paid to drill and move the oil, regardless of what the price of a barrel is that day.
- Halliburton (HAL) and SLB (SLB): These are the oil service kings. If there is more drilling activity, they are getting hired. Period.
- Energy Transfer (ET): They own the pipelines. More production means more volume flowing through their pipes, and they collect a fee on every drop.
The "America First" Manufacturing Renaissance
Tariffs are the wildcard. Trump has floated the idea of a 10% universal tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. This is meant to protect American jobs, but it also makes everything we import more expensive.
This is bad news for retailers like Walmart or Target that rely on cheap overseas goods. However, it's a massive "Buy American" signal for domestic manufacturers. If it becomes too expensive to build things in Shenzhen, companies will look to Ohio, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina.
But we have a problem: we don't have enough workers to man the factories. This is why Automation and Robotics are the secret "Trump trade" that most people miss. If a company wants to move its manufacturing back to the U.S. but can't find 5,000 workers, they are going to buy 500 robots.
The Automation Playbook:
- Rockwell Automation (ROK): They are the leaders in making factories "smart."
- Teradyne (TER): They specialize in collaborative robots (cobots) that work alongside humans.
- Caterpillar (CAT): They are the ultimate "infrastructure" play. Between potential new factory builds and the "Peace Through Strength" military expansion, CAT's yellow tractors will be everywhere.
Defense Spending: Beyond Just "Peace Through Strength"
The defense sector was already hot before the election. Global tensions aren't exactly cooling down. But a Trump administration brings a specific focus: the "Golden Dome." He has talked extensively about building a state-of-the-art missile defense shield over the United States.
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This isn't just about buying more tanks. It’s about high-end technology, AI-driven defense systems, and space-based assets.
Look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX Corp (RTX). They aren't just building planes; they are the architects of the missile defense systems Trump has prioritized. And then there's the newer players like Palantir (PLTR), which provides the AI "brain" that the military uses to make sense of all their data.
Why Gold is Hitting Record Highs
It seems weird, right? If the stock market is supposed to do well under Trump, why is gold trading at over $4,500 an ounce in 2026?
The answer is uncertainty. While the market likes low taxes, it hates volatility. Trump’s style is unpredictable. One tweet about a new tariff on Mexico can send a stock price tumbling in minutes. On top of that, his tax cuts and spending plans aren't exactly helping the national debt.
Investors are using gold as a "portfolio insurance." It’s a hedge against inflation and a hedge against the possibility that the trade wars get out of hand. If you're looking at what stock to buy if Trump wins, don't ignore the shiny stuff. The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) or gold miners like Newmont (NEM) offer a way to protect yourself if things get a little too chaotic.
The Crypto "Wildcard"
We have to talk about Bitcoin. Trump has gone from a skeptic to a full-blown "Crypto President." He has spoken at Bitcoin conferences and promised to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the planet."
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This is a massive shift from the regulatory crackdown we saw under the previous administration. If the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) becomes "crypto-friendly," it opens the door for more institutional money—pension funds, insurance companies, and big banks—to finally dive into the digital asset space.
- Coinbase (COIN): If trading volume goes up, they make money. If new tokens are allowed to be listed without fear of a lawsuit, they make even more money.
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): Basically a Bitcoin proxy at this point. If Bitcoin goes up, this stock tends to go up even faster (though the downside is just as steep).
What Could Go Wrong? (The Reality Check)
No investment is a sure thing. The biggest risk to a "Trump win" portfolio is Inflation.
If the tariffs make goods too expensive, and the lack of immigration makes labor too expensive, the Federal Reserve might have to keep interest rates high to stop the economy from overheating. High interest rates are the "kryptonite" of the stock market. They make it more expensive for companies to borrow money and make bonds more attractive than stocks.
There’s also the "Trade War" risk. If China retaliates by banning American iPhones or Tesla cars, the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants could take a massive hit. You have to be careful not to put all your eggs in one "America First" basket.
Your Next Steps for a Trump-Aligned Portfolio
If you are looking to position your money for this era, don't just chase the headlines. Start by looking at your current allocations and seeing where you might be "over-exposed" to China or high-regulation industries.
- Audit your Tech holdings: If you own a lot of Apple or Nvidia, consider if you need a "hedge" like Gold or a more domestic-focused Industrial stock.
- Look at "Mid-Cap" Industrials: These companies often have 100% of their revenue coming from the U.S., meaning they actually benefit from tariffs while the big multinationals suffer.
- Don't ignore the "Boring" stuff: Pipelines and regional banks aren't flashy, but they are the biggest beneficiaries of the "deregulation" theme.
- Keep some cash on the sidelines: With Trump, the headlines move fast. You’ll want to have some "dry powder" ready to buy the dips when a surprise policy announcement causes a temporary market freakout.
The market in 2026 is a different beast than it was in 2016. The "Trump trade" is more nuanced this time around, and the winners will be the ones who can look past the noise and find the companies actually building the infrastructure of a more isolated, deregulated, and automated America.