Wisconsin is basically the center of the political universe every four years. If you've been refreshing your feed wondering about the final tallies, the dust has finally settled on one of the tightest and most expensive spectacles in the state's history. It wasn't just one race, though. People keep asking who won the race in Wisconsin like it’s a single thing, but the reality is a split decision that has both parties scratching their heads and claimin' a bit of a win.
Donald Trump pulled off a massive feat by flipping the state back into the Republican column for the presidency. He didn't just win; he hit the highest percentage for a GOP candidate since Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide. He pulled in 1,697,626 votes, which is roughly 49.6% of the total. Kamala Harris wasn't far behind with 1,668,229 votes (48.7%). That’s a razor-thin margin of about 29,397 votes. In a state with over 3.4 million ballots cast, that’s basically a rounding error.
The Senate Race Shocker: Tammy Baldwin’s Survival
While Trump was busy securing those 10 electoral votes, something else was happening further down the ballot. Democrat Tammy Baldwin managed to hang on to her U.S. Senate seat, but barely. Honestly, it was a nail-biter. She defeated Republican challenger Eric Hovde by about 29,000 votes—almost the exact same margin Trump won by, just in the opposite direction.
Baldwin finished with 1,672,777 votes (49.4%) compared to Hovde’s 1,643,996 (48.5%). Hovde, a multimillionaire businessman, didn't concede right away. There was about a week of tension where he floated theories about the Milwaukee absentee ballots, but he eventually called it quits on November 18, 2024, realizing a recount wouldn't change the math.
The weirdest part? There were a lot of "split-ticket" voters. These are people who literally walked into the booth, voted for Donald Trump for President, and then moved their pen over to vote for Tammy Baldwin for Senate. Without those specific voters, Baldwin would probably be out of a job right now.
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Breaking Down the Numbers: How the Map Flipped
If you look at the county map, it’s mostly a sea of red with a few deep blue islands. But those islands are where the people live.
- Milwaukee County: Harris won here with 68.3%, but Trump actually improved his standing compared to 2020.
- Dane County: This is Madison territory. It’s the engine of the Democratic party in Wisconsin. Harris pulled a massive 75.1% here.
- The WOW Counties: Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington. These used to be Republican fortresses. Trump still won them, but his margins are shrinking. In Waukesha, he won by 20 points, which sounds big until you realize Republicans used to win it by 30 or 40.
- The Drift: Nearly every rural county swung further to the right. Places like Oconto County saw Trump hitting 71%.
Voter turnout was absolutely massive. We’re talking about 72.6% of the voting-age population showing up. That is one of the highest participation rates in the entire country. Wisconsinites take this stuff seriously.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Wisconsin Results
There’s this idea that Milwaukee "dumps" ballots in the middle of the night to steal races. That’s just not how it works. Wisconsin law actually prevents election workers from even opening the envelopes of absentee ballots until Election Day morning. In a city as big as Milwaukee, processing 100,000+ ballots by hand takes time.
The "blue shift" everyone saw at 4:00 AM wasn't a conspiracy; it was just the central count facility finally finishing their homework. Both parties know this is how it works, but it doesn't stop the rumors from flying every time who won the race in Wisconsin becomes the top search term on the planet.
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Another surprise was the impact of third-party candidates. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was still on the ballot despite "dropping out," and he pulled 17,740 votes. Jill Stein got 12,275. In a race decided by 29,000, those numbers actually matter.
Why the Margin Stayed So Tight
Wisconsin is the only state in the 2024 cycle that was decided by less than 1%. It’s a true 50/50 state. Trump’s message on the economy and immigration resonated in the Fox Valley and the Northwoods. Meanwhile, the Democrats leaned heavily into reproductive rights, which is likely what saved Tammy Baldwin in the suburbs.
The exit polls showed a pretty stark divide:
- Economy: Voters who prioritized the "pocketbook" went heavily for Trump.
- Health Care: Those focused on the future of the Affordable Care Act and abortion access stayed with the Democrats.
- The "Late Deciders": People who picked their candidate in the final week seemed to break slightly for Trump, giving him that final push over the finish line.
Actionable Insights for Following Wisconsin Politics
If you're trying to keep track of where things go from here, don't just look at the top-line winner. Watch the state legislature. Along with the big races, Wisconsin voters approved a constitutional amendment that officially prohibits noncitizens from voting—it passed with a whopping 70.5% of the vote. This shows that even in a "blue" or "purple" state, conservative policy ideas still have a lot of pull.
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Keep an eye on the "WOW" counties in the 2026 midterms. If Republicans continue to lose ground there, they’ll have to make it up by squeezing even more votes out of rural areas, which is getting harder to do as those populations shrink.
To stay truly informed on Wisconsin's shifting landscape:
- Follow the Wisconsin Elections Commission for certified, non-partisan data.
- Check out Marquette Law School Polls—they are the gold standard for understanding why people are voting the way they are.
- Monitor local reporting from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel or Wisconsin Public Radio for the ground-level details that national news misses.
The 2024 results proved that Wisconsin isn't getting any less predictable. It's a game of inches, and every single vote in those small towns and big cities really does change the course of history.