If you were sitting in a heated living room in Des Moines on the night of January 15, 2024, you probably weren't thinking about "historical realignment." You were probably thinking about how the wind chill outside was a bone-shattering -30 degrees. It was the kind of cold that makes your car tires feel like squares. Yet, thousands of Iowans bundled up in parkas and boots to answer a question that had been looming for months: who won Iowa 2024? The answer was fast. Shockingly fast.
Basically, the Associated Press and major networks called the race for Donald Trump before some people had even finished their first cup of coffee at the caucus sites. It was a landslide. Trump didn't just win; he demolished the competition, pulling in 51% of the vote. To put that in perspective, he won 98 out of Iowa’s 99 counties. He lost one—Johnson County—to Nikki Haley by a single, solitary vote. Just one. That’s the kind of margin that changes the entire energy of an election cycle.
The Republican Landslide: Donald Trump’s Night
Honestly, the GOP side of the 2024 Iowa caucus was a masterclass in base consolidation. While the media spent months talking about a "two-person race" for second place, Trump was operating on a different level. He secured 20 delegates and left his rivals fighting over the scraps. His 30-point margin of victory wasn't just a win; it was the largest margin for a non-incumbent in the history of the Iowa Republican caucuses.
Why did he win so big? It wasn't just the name recognition.
Trump’s support was wide and deep. He won among men, women, young voters, and the elderly. He swept the evangelical vote, a group that had been a bit more skeptical of him back in 2016. According to entrance polls from Edison Research, about two-thirds of voters without a four-year college degree went for Trump. He also won the college-educated crowd, though by a smaller margin. People in Iowa weren't just "okay" with him; they were enthusiastic, even in a blizzard.
The battle for second place was where the real drama lived. Ron DeSantis managed to pull off a silver medal with 21.2%, narrowly edging out Nikki Haley, who finished at 19.1%. DeSantis had bet his entire campaign on Iowa. He visited all 99 counties—the "Full Grassley," as they call it. While he got his "ticket punched" out of Iowa, the momentum was short-lived. He suspended his campaign just days later before the New Hampshire primary.
Then you had Vivek Ramaswamy. He brought a lot of energy and a lot of fast-talking policy points, but it only translated to roughly 7.7% of the vote. He dropped out that same night and immediately threw his support behind Trump.
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What Happened With the Democrats?
If you're looking for the Democratic results from that same frozen night in January, you won't find them. This is where it gets a little weird.
For the first time in decades, the Iowa Democratic Party didn't hold a traditional "in-person" caucus to determine their nominee on the same night as the Republicans. After the absolute reporting disaster of 2020, and a push from the DNC to make South Carolina the first "official" primary, Iowa Democrats moved to a mail-in "preference card" system.
They still held meetings on January 15 to handle party business, but the actual voting happened over several weeks. The results weren't released until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
- Joe Biden: 90.9% (12,337 votes)
- Uncommitted: 4.5% (614 votes)
- Dean Phillips: 2.9% (394 votes)
- Marianne Williamson: 2.2% (307 votes)
Biden took all 40 pledged delegates. It was a procedural walkover, but the change in format signaled a massive shift in how Iowa fits into the national Democratic landscape. The "First in the Nation" status that Iowans guard so fiercely is now essentially a Republican-only claim.
The "Selzer Effect" and the Polling Miss
We have to talk about J. Ann Selzer. In the world of political nerds, she’s basically a rockstar. Her Des Moines Register poll is usually the gold standard. In her final pre-caucus poll, she showed Nikki Haley moving into second place, which sparked a massive wave of "Haley-mentum" stories in the national press.
But when the actual votes were counted, DeSantis took second.
Selzer herself noted a lack of enthusiasm among Haley’s supporters in that final poll. It turns out, "liking" a candidate is different from "driving through a polar vortex to sit in a gymnasium for three hours" for a candidate. DeSantis's ground game, led by the "Never Back Down" PAC, was robust enough to drag his supporters out into the cold, whereas Haley’s more moderate, suburban base seemed a bit more deterred by the ice.
Why the 2024 Iowa Result Still Matters
You might think that because Trump eventually won the presidency in November 2024, the Iowa results were just an inevitable first step. But at the time, there were real questions. Could a candidate win while facing multiple criminal indictments? Would the evangelical base stay loyal?
Iowa provided the answer: Yes.
The caucuses proved that the legal challenges facing Trump weren't a bug to Republican voters; they were a feature. Most caucus-goers told pollsters they viewed the charges as politically motivated. Instead of hurting him, the indictments seemed to act as a rallying cry. Iowa was the moment the "Never Trump" movement within the GOP officially ran out of oxygen.
Key Takeaways from the Night
- Weather is a Factor: The record-low temperatures led to the lowest turnout in over a decade. Only about 110,000 Republicans showed up, compared to 186,000 in 2016.
- Urban vs. Rural: Trump’s dominance in rural Iowa is untouchable. His ability to turn out voters in small towns is what makes his "MAGA" base so formidable.
- The End of Retail Politics?: DeSantis did everything "right" by Iowa standards (the 99-county tour, the endorsements from Governor Kim Reynolds and Bob Vander Plaats), yet he still lost by 30 points. It suggests that national media presence and a "movement" identity now outweigh traditional door-to-door campaigning.
What to Keep in Mind Moving Forward
If you're looking at the 2024 Iowa results as a roadmap for future elections, pay attention to the shift in the Democratic calendar. Iowa’s relevance is currently lopsided. For Republicans, it remains a kingmaker (or at least a "frontrunner-confirmer"). For Democrats, it's currently in a state of reinvention.
The 2024 cycle also showed that the "moderate" wing of the GOP, represented by Haley, has a hard ceiling in states with high evangelical populations. She performed best in Johnson County and Story County (home to the University of Iowa and Iowa State), but that's not where the heart of the modern Republican party beats.
If you're researching this for a project or just trying to settle a debate, remember that the "winner" isn't just the person with the most votes—it's the person who beats expectations. In 2024, Trump didn't just meet the high expectations; he vaulted over them, effectively ending the competitive phase of the primary before it even reached New Hampshire.
To dig deeper into the data, you can look at the official Iowa Secretary of State election returns or the Iowa GOP's historical caucus data. These sources provide the precinct-level breakdown that shows exactly how the "red wall" was built in the Midwest.