It’s January 2026. The dust from the 2024 election didn't just settle; it was basically kicked up into a permanent storm that’s still swirling around D.C. If you’ve been watching the news lately, you know the "what ifs" are over. We're living in it. Honestly, looking back at the predictions from two years ago, some were spot on, while others were way off the mark.
The biggest shocker for most people hasn't been the rhetoric—it's been the speed.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" and Your Wallet
The center of everything right now is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Remember how everyone debated those tax cuts? Well, they’re here. If you're filing your 2025 taxes this month, you’re probably seeing the shift. For a lot of middle-income families, the standard deduction stayed high—about $31,500 for married couples. That's a win.
But there’s a catch.
While the "no tax on tips" policy is officially in play (bartenders and servers can exclude up to $25,000 in tips), the Section 232 and IEEPA tariffs are hitting the other side of the ledger. Basically, the government is trying to replace income tax revenue with import tax revenue.
The Tax Foundation is estimating that these tariffs are costing the average household about $1,500 more this year in higher prices for electronics, cars, and even some groceries. It’s a weird tug-of-war. You might have a slightly bigger paycheck because of the overtime tax exemption, but you’re spending it immediately at the checkout counter.
The New Tax Perks
- Trump Accounts for Kids: If you had a baby in 2025, the government seeded a $1,000 tax-exempt account for them.
- Auto Loan Interest: You can now deduct interest on loans for U.S.-assembled cars, up to $10,000.
- SALT Cap: The $10,000 limit on state and local tax deductions was bumped up to **$40,000**. That’s a huge deal for people in places like New York or California.
Drill, Baby, Drill: The Energy Emergency
On day one, the administration declared a "national energy emergency." It wasn't just a slogan. They’ve been gutting the EPA's methane rules and pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord (again).
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Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has been busy opening up millions of acres in Alaska and federal lands for oil and gas leasing. If you drive a gas-powered truck, you’re probably happy about the push for "energy dominance," but the offshore wind industry is essentially on life support after executive orders pulled back all new lease opportunities.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" didn't just cut taxes; it shifted $40 billion into fossil fuel subsidies while nuking the federal EV tax credits. If you were planning on buying a Tesla this year, that $7,500 credit is a ghost of the past.
What’s Going to Happen If Trump Wins on the Border
This is where things got really intense, really fast. The "extreme vetting" order (Executive Order 14161) and the expanded travel ban now cover 38 countries. It’s not just about the wall anymore. We’re seeing "Remain in Mexico" fully reinstated and a massive push for a "deportation operation" targeting criminal aliens.
Brookings recently put out a report showing that net migration to the U.S. might actually be negative for the first time in fifty years.
Why does that matter to you?
Well, if you're a business owner, you're likely feeling the labor crunch. Construction and agriculture sectors are screaming because "breakeven employment growth" has plummeted. There are fewer people to do the work, which keeps wages high but also pushes up the cost of building a house or buying a steak.
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Foreign Policy: The "Warrior Dividends" and Global Tensions
Trump’s first year back has been... chaotic. He’s leaning into a "peace through strength" vibe, but 2025 was a bloody year. The U.S. joined Israel in strikes against Iran and Houthi targets in Yemen.
One of the wildest headlines of early 2026? Venezuela. After military action there, the administration announced the U.S. would be "turning over" 30-50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to help stabilize domestic prices. It’s a high-stakes game of poker with the world's energy supply.
At home, the "Warrior Dividends"—special bonuses for military members—have been a popular move to shore up support within the ranks, especially as the administration prepares for a potentially rocky 2026 midterm season.
The Project 2025 Reality
During the campaign, Trump tried to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation’s "Project 2025." But one year into the term, the Center for Western Priorities says he’s already implemented over 80% of its recommendations regarding public lands.
Federal agencies are leaner. A lot leaner. We’ve seen tens of thousands of federal employees let go or moved under "Schedule F" status, which basically means they can be fired at will. The goal is to "drain the swamp," but it's led to a lot of brain drain in departments like the EPA and the Department of Education.
A Quick Reality Check on the Midterms
Congressman Nancy Mace and other Republicans are already sounding the alarm about the 2026 midterms. The "affordability tour" the President is on right now is a direct response to voters feeling the pinch of those tariffs. People like the tax cuts, sure, but they hate paying $5 for a gallon of milk.
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What Most People Get Wrong About 2026
Most people thought the economy would either explode or collapse instantly. Neither happened.
Instead, we have this fragmented reality. If you’re in the oil business or own a small "pass-through" company (which now has a permanent 20% deduction), you’re probably doing great. If you’re in green tech or rely on imported parts for manufacturing, you’re likely struggling with supply chain "volatility" and high costs.
The Supreme Court is also about to rule on whether the President actually has the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to bypass Congress for permanent tariffs. If they say no, the whole economic plan for 2026 might need a total rewrite.
Actionable Insights: Navigating the 2026 Landscape
If you're trying to figure out how to handle the rest of this year, here are a few things to keep in mind:
- Check Your Withholding: Because the IRS didn't adjust withholding for the OBBBA changes right away, your refund this year might be surprisingly large—or you might owe more than you thought. Get with a CPA before April.
- Lock in Sourcing: If your business depends on imports, look for "carveouts" or exemptions. The administration has been giving these out, but the process is, frankly, a mess. You need a trade lawyer to navigate the USTR's new rules.
- Domestic is King: With the new deductions for U.S.-made cars and manufacturing structures, the incentives are all pointing toward "Buying American." If you’re making a major purchase or investment, check where it’s built. It could save you thousands in taxes.
- Watch the Fed: Trump is likely to tap a new Federal Reserve chair soon. This will have a massive impact on mortgage rates, which he’s promised to bring down through "aggressive housing reform." If you're looking to buy a home, wait for the policy announcement in late spring.
The "what's going to happen if trump wins" question isn't a theory anymore. It’s a series of executive orders, tax filings, and trade wars. It’s a world that’s moving faster than the 24-hour news cycle can keep up with.
Stay flexible. The rules of the game are changing every month.
Next Steps:
- Review the specific requirements for the "Trump Account" if you have a child born after Jan 1, 2025, to ensure you receive the $1,000 seed funding.
- Check the VIN of any vehicle you plan to purchase to see if it qualifies for the U.S.-assembled interest deduction.
- Audit your business supply chain for potential tariff exemptions under the latest 2026 USTR guidelines.