If you’ve lived in Moscow or even just followed the news lately, the morning coffee hits a bit differently when the air raid sirens start wailing. It’s not just "border skirmishes" anymore. We are seeing a massive shift in how the war is being fought, and frankly, it's getting closer to the Kremlin than most people expected.
Just this month, in January 2026, the sky over the Russian capital hasn't exactly been quiet. Russia’s own defense ministry basically admitted that Ukraine has targeted Moscow with drones every single day since the start of the new year. That’s a lot of metal in the air. On one particularly chaotic Sunday in early January, three out of four of Moscow’s main airports—including Vnukovo—had to shut down completely. Imagine being stuck on the tarmac because a swarm of long-range UAVs is buzzing overhead. It’s a mess.
Honestly, the "drone war" has evolved from a few experimental hits into a relentless, daily reality.
The Reality of Ukrainian Drones Strike Moscow
When we talk about Ukrainian drones strike moscow, we aren't just talking about one or two lucky shots anymore. We’re talking about a sophisticated, deep-strike campaign. Ukraine has basically sprinted ahead of everyone else in this tech. According to recent reports from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), Ukraine’s average daily launch of long-range drones against Russian targets is now regularly over 100. Sometimes, that number spikes to over 500 in a single day.
It's wild.
Take the events around January 4, 2026. Russian air defenses claimed to have downed 57 drones just over the Moscow region alone. That was part of a larger wave of 437 drones across the country. You can see the scale here. It’s no longer about hitting one specific building to make a point; it’s about overwhelming the most sophisticated air defense systems in the world by sheer volume.
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What are they actually hitting?
Most of the time, the Russian officials say they "intercepted" everything and only "falling debris" caused damage. But if you look at the ground reality, the targets are very specific:
- Logistics Hubs: Keeping the Russian military from moving fuel and ammo.
- Airports: Forcing the closure of civilian and military airspace to disrupt the economy and troop movements.
- Energy Infrastructure: Trying to give Moscow a taste of the blackouts that Kyiv has been dealing with for years.
The psychological impact is probably even bigger than the physical damage. For years, the war felt far away for the average Moscovite. Now? Not so much. When high-rise apartment buildings in nearby cities like Ryazan—just 185 kilometers from Moscow—get hit, people start asking questions. On January 16, a drone slammed into the 18th floor of a 26-story building in Ryazan. Even if it was "downed" by electronic warfare, it still ended up in someone's living room.
The Tech Behind the Strikes
How is Ukraine doing this? They aren't just using hobbyist gear anymore. They’ve built an entire industry from scratch. We’re seeing things like the Peklo (Hell) missile drone. This thing is a beast. It’s got a range of about 700 km and can fly at 700 km/h. It’s basically a low-cost cruise missile.
Then there’s the FP-5 "Flamingo." This is a newer cruise-style drone designed specifically to hit deep inside Russian territory. Because these drones cost between $50,000 and $150,000—which sounds like a lot but is dirt cheap compared to a $2 million Kalibr missile—Ukraine can afford to send them in swarms.
Russian defenses are struggling because they have to use very expensive missiles to shoot down very cheap drones. It’s a math problem that Russia is currently losing.
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AI and "Operation Spiderweb"
There’s also a lot of talk about AI. A recent operation dubbed "Spiderweb" reportedly used AI targeting to hit military aircraft deep within Russia. This means the drones aren't just flying to a GPS coordinate that can be jammed; they are "looking" at the ground and recognizing their targets autonomously. It’s scary-efficient stuff.
Why This Matters Right Now
You might be wondering why Ukraine is ramping this up so hard in January 2026. Well, it’s winter. Russia has been hammering Ukraine’s power grid with everything they’ve got. On January 14, President Zelenskyy had to declare a state of emergency in the energy sector because the Russian strikes were so brutal.
Ukraine is striking back at Moscow to show that there's a price to pay. If Kyiv stays dark and cold, they want Moscow to feel the pressure too.
It’s also a political message. With peace talks constantly being teased—like the recent mentions of Trump envoys meeting with officials—Ukraine wants to enter any negotiation from a position of strength. They want to show that they can reach out and touch the heart of Russia whenever they want.
What Most People Get Wrong
A big misconception is that these drones are "terrorizing" the population. While it’s terrifying for civilians, the military goal is almost always industrial. Ukraine is targeting the "military-economic potential." They want to hit the factories that make the missiles. For instance, they recently hit the Atlant Aero facility in Taganrog, which makes components for the Orion UAVs.
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Another mistake? Thinking the Russian "S-400" systems make Moscow an impenetrable bubble. No air defense is 100% effective against a swarm. If you send 50 drones, and 48 are shot down, those 2 that get through can still do a massive amount of damage if they hit an oil refinery or a power substation.
What’s Next?
Look, this isn't going to stop anytime soon. Ukraine has scaled up production to the point where they are making thousands of these deep-strike drones every month.
If you are tracking this, here is what you should watch for:
- Frequency of Airport Closures: If Moscow's airports start closing every other day, the economic cost will become unsustainable for the Russian government.
- The "Drone Wall": The EU is talking about a "Drone Wall" for 2026 to defend its own borders, but the real test is happening in the skies over Moscow right now.
- New Tech: Watch for the official debut of more "missile-drones" that blur the line between a slow UAV and a fast cruise missile.
The war has moved from the trenches to the skies, and the flight path is heading straight for the capital.
To stay informed on this evolving situation, monitor the daily reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian Ministry of Defense (with a healthy dose of skepticism for both). Cross-referencing these with OSINT groups like DeepState or satellite imagery analysis is the only way to get the full picture of where the next Ukrainian drones strike Moscow might land.