Everyone thought they knew how women would vote in 2024. The headlines were basically written months in advance: a "pink wave" was supposed to wash over the polls, driven by a massive backlash to the end of Roe v. Wade. But when the dust settled on election night, the numbers told a much messier, more surprising story. Honestly, the "gender gap" didn't widen into a canyon; it stayed more like a persistent crack in the pavement.
So, let's get right to the big number you're looking for. Donald Trump won approximately 45% to 46% of women voters in 2024. According to Edison Research’s exit polls, 45% of women backed the Trump-Vance ticket. AP VoteCast, which uses a slightly different methodology with a massive sample size of over 120,000 voters, put that number at 46%. Compare that to 2020, where Trump took about 43% to 44% of the female vote, and you see a subtle but crucial shift. He didn't just hold his ground; he actually gained a little bit of traction with women, even in a post-Dobbs world.
The Breakdown: Why the "Women's Vote" Isn't a Monolith
It’s kinda lazy to talk about "women" as if they all want the same thing. They don't. In 2024, the divide wasn't just about being a woman; it was about race, education, and where you live. If you look at the exit polls, the differences are staggering.
White Women: The Reliable Base
White women have been the backbone of the Republican female vote for decades, and 2024 was no exception. 53% of white women voted for Donald Trump. This is remarkably consistent with his 2016 and 2020 numbers. Even with abortion on the ballot in many states, this group didn't flee the GOP in the numbers Democrats had hoped for.
There is a massive "diploma divide" here, though. White women without a college degree went for Trump by a huge margin—somewhere between 25 and 28 points depending on which poll you trust. On the flip side, college-educated white women broke for Kamala Harris. It’s basically two different worlds within the same demographic.
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The Shift Among Hispanic and Black Women
This is where things get really interesting for the Trump campaign. While Black women remained the most loyal Democratic constituency—with roughly 91% voting for Harris—Trump still saw a tiny uptick. About 7% to 10% of Black women chose Trump, which is a small jump from the 4% to 8% range seen in previous cycles.
The real story, though, is with Hispanic women. Trump won about 37% to 38% of Hispanic women. That’s a significant 7-point increase from 2020. In places like Florida and the Rio Grande Valley, the shift was even more pronounced. For many of these voters, the "kitchen table" issues—inflation, the cost of gas, and the price of eggs—outweighed the rhetoric surrounding social issues.
Age and the Gen Z Surprise
You've probably heard that Gen Z is the most liberal generation ever. While young women (18-29) did favor Harris by a wide margin (about 58% to 61%), Trump actually did better with them than he did in 2020.
In 2020, Biden won young women by about 30 points. In 2024, Harris’s lead with this group shrank to roughly 24 points. It turns out that young women aren't just voting on reproductive rights; they're also worried about how they're ever going to afford a house or pay off their student loans in an economy that feels like it's rigged against them.
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The Only Group Harris Actually Improved With
If you're looking for where Harris actually made gains, look at women over 65. They were the only female age cohort to move toward the Democrats compared to 2020. Every other age group of women either stayed the same or drifted slightly toward Trump. This "grandma shift" was real, likely driven by concerns over the future of Social Security and a more traditional distaste for Trump’s rhetoric, but it wasn't enough to offset the losses elsewhere.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Abortion Factor
The biggest misconception about the 2024 election is that abortion would be the "silver bullet" for Democrats. It wasn't that the issue didn't matter—it did. In fact, Edison Research found that 65% of all voters thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases. That's a huge shift toward the "pro-choice" side since 2020.
But here's the kicker: many women who believe abortion should be legal still voted for Trump. How? Well, many voters in 2024 were "issue-splitters." They might have voted for a state-level ballot initiative to protect abortion rights but then checked the box for Trump for President because they trusted him more on the economy or immigration. In their minds, the abortion issue was "settled" at the state level, allowing them to vote on other priorities for the White House.
The Economy Was the Real Winner
When you ask women what their number one issue was, the answer was almost always the economy. According to AP VoteCast, roughly 4 in 10 women said the economy and jobs were the most important problems facing the country. For these women, Trump's message of "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" hit home.
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- Inflation: The rising cost of living hit female-headed households and primary shoppers hard.
- Immigration: Concerns over border security resonated more with suburban women than pollsters predicted.
- Safety: In urban and suburban areas, "law and order" messaging found an audience among women worried about rising crime rates.
Regional Nuances: Where the Votes Came From
If you look at the "Blue Wall" states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—Trump’s ability to limit his losses with suburban women was key. He didn't have to win them; he just had to lose them by less than he did in 2020.
In Pennsylvania, for instance, Trump’s support among non-college-educated women in rural areas was through the roof. We're talking about 60% to 70% support in some counties. That overwhelming turnout in the "T" of the state (the rural middle) effectively cancelled out the Democratic gains in the Philly suburbs.
The Religious Factor
We can't ignore the role of faith. White evangelical women stayed incredibly loyal to the Republican ticket. Edison’s exit polls showed a staggering 80% of white "born-again" or evangelical women voted for Trump. For this group, the choice wasn't just political; it was a matter of identity and values that transcended any single news cycle or controversy.
Actionable Insights: What This Means for the Future
The 2024 results proved that the "gender gap" is a real thing, but it's not a destiny. If you're trying to understand the American electorate, you have to look past the surface-level categories.
- Stop treating women as a single voting bloc. Campaign strategies that only focus on one issue (like abortion) will likely fail to capture the diversity of women's concerns.
- Watch the Hispanic shift. If the trend of Hispanic women moving toward the GOP continues, it will fundamentally redraw the electoral map for 2028 and beyond.
- The "Diploma Divide" is the new North Star. Education level is now one of the most reliable predictors of how a woman will vote, often more than her age or even her religion.
- Economics is the Great Equalizer. Regardless of gender, if people feel like they can't afford their lives, they will vote for change, even if they have personal reservations about the candidate.
The 2024 election showed that while the "pink wave" might have been a ripple, the undercurrents of economic anxiety and shifting cultural identities were far more powerful. Donald Trump's 45% share of the female vote wasn't an accident; it was the result of a coalition that cared more about the price of gas than the latest social media controversy. To understand where the country is going, you've got to look at those 45% and realize they aren't going anywhere.