Missouri isn't the swing state it used to be. Not even close. If you were looking for a nail-biter on election night, the 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri probably left you heading to bed early.
Republican incumbent Josh Hawley secured his second term, and honestly, he did it with room to spare. He took home about 55.6% of the vote. His main challenger, Democrat Lucas Kunce, pulled in roughly 41.8%. That’s a gap of nearly 14 points. For context, when Hawley first flipped this seat in 2018 by beating Claire McCaskill, the margin was much tighter—under six points.
Missouri has shifted. It’s a deep shade of red now.
The Matchup Nobody Could Ignore
The vibes of this race were weirdly intense for a contest most pundits labeled as "Safe Republican" from the jump. You had Josh Hawley, a polarizing figure nationally, especially after the events of January 6th, 2021. Then you had Lucas Kunce, a Marine veteran who ran a populist, "no corporate PAC money" campaign that actually out-raised Hawley for several quarters.
Kunce was everywhere. He spent a fortune on ads. He tried to frame the 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri as a fight between "real people" and "career politicians." He even had big-name endorsements from folks like Andy Cohen and Jon Hamm.
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But Hawley played a different game. He leaned hard into cultural issues and tied himself to the top of the ticket. He didn't just win; he outperformed his 2018 self by a significant margin.
Why the Gap Was So Big
You’ve gotta look at the "Trump factor." Donald Trump won Missouri by a massive margin in 2024. While Hawley actually ran a few points behind Trump, the sheer gravitational pull of the presidential race made it almost impossible for a Democrat to swim upstream.
Interestingly, Lucas Kunce did better than Kamala Harris in Missouri by about two points. It shows there’s a small slice of Missourians who are willing to split their ticket, but just not enough of them to move the needle in a statewide federal race.
The Issues That Actually Moved People
While the candidates were busy shouting at each other about who was more "Missouri," the voters were focused on some pretty heavy stuff. This wasn't just about personalities.
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- Abortion Access: This was the massive elephant in the room. Missouri had a constitutional amendment on the ballot (Amendment 3) to codify abortion rights. It passed with 51% of the vote.
- The Economy: Inflation was the word of the year. Hawley hammered the "Biden-Harris" economy, and it resonated in the Ozarks and the Bootheel.
- Labor and Wages: Proposition A, which raised the minimum wage and mandated paid sick leave, also passed comfortably with 57%.
It creates this strange paradox. Missouri voters will pass progressive policies like higher wages and abortion rights at the ballot box, but they still send staunch conservatives like Hawley back to D.C.
The Ground Game and the Money
Kunce’s fundraising was legit. He raised over $11 million by mid-summer, while Hawley was sitting on a massive war chest of over $22 million. The spending was astronomical for a state that wasn't technically "in play" by national standards.
Kunce tried to hit Hawley on his residency—the old "he doesn't even live here" trope—pointing to Hawley's Virginia home. Hawley countered by spending a lot of time in the southern and rural parts of the state, reinforcing his "homegrown" image despite the criticism.
Third-Party Spoilers?
Not really. W.C. Young (Libertarian) got 1.2%, and Jared Young (Better Party) got about 0.7%. In a race decided by 14 points, these folks were basically statistical noise.
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What This Means for Missouri’s Future
The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri proved that the state's "bellwether" days are officially dead and buried. The Democratic path in the Show-Me State is currently restricted to St. Louis, Kansas City, and a few pockets like Columbia.
If you're a Democrat looking to win here, you're looking at a decade-long project of rebuilding trust in rural areas. Kunce tried the "populist veteran" angle, and while it helped him overperform the top of the ticket, it still wasn't enough to crack the 45% ceiling.
Actionable Insights for Missouri Voters
- Watch the Ballot Measures: Since Missourians often vote "blue" on issues but "red" on candidates, pay attention to the 2026 cycle. There will likely be attempts by the legislature to make it harder to pass these citizen-led initiatives.
- Keep an Eye on the $15 Wage: Proposition A means the minimum wage hits $13.75 now and moves to $15 in January 2026. If you're a small business owner or a worker, that's the date to circle on your calendar.
- Follow Committee Assignments: Now that Hawley is back for six more years and the GOP holds the Senate majority (53-47), his influence on the Judiciary and Homeland Security committees is going to be massive.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri wasn't just a win for the GOP; it was a confirmation of the state's new identity. Missouri is a place where voters want conservative leadership in Washington, even if they want more progressive protections at home.