Florida isn't a swing state anymore. Honestly, if there was any doubt left in your mind about the "purple" status of the Sunshine State, the latest Rick Scott election results basically set that narrative on fire. For years, people talked about Florida like it was a coin flip. Not anymore.
When the dust finally settled on the November 5, 2024, race, the numbers were kind of shocking to anyone still clinging to the 2018 playbook. Rick Scott didn't just win; he cruised. We’re talking about a guy who used to win by the skin of his teeth—literally 0.12% in his first Senate race. This time? It wasn't even close.
The Numbers: Breaking Down the 2024 Margin
Let's look at the raw data because the spread is where the real story lives. Scott pulled in 5,977,706 votes, which accounts for about 55.6% of the total. His Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, finished with 4,603,077 votes, or roughly 42.8%.
That’s a gap of nearly 13 percentage points.
To put that in perspective, in 2018, Scott beat Bill Nelson by about 10,000 votes. Total nail-biter. Mandatory recounts. Lawyers everywhere. This year, the "blue wave" that some pundits predicted in Florida felt more like a puddle. Scott won by over 1.3 million votes. That is a massive shift in just six years.
Why the Polls Were Sorta Wrong
If you were following the polls leading up to the election, you might’ve expected a tight race. Most aggregators, like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, had Scott up by maybe 4 or 5 points.
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- FiveThirtyEight Average: Scott +4.7%
- TheHill/DDHQ: Scott +5.4%
- Actual Result: Scott +12.8%
Why the miss? It seems like pollsters are still struggling to capture the sheer volume of Republican voter registration gains in Florida. Since 2020, Republicans have overtaken Democrats in registered voters by nearly a million people. You can't ignore that kind of math.
The Miami-Dade Flip: A Seismic Shift
The most fascinating part of the Rick Scott election results isn't just the total number. It’s where those votes came from. For the first time in his four statewide runs (two for Governor, two for Senate), Scott won Miami-Dade County.
Think about that. Miami-Dade was a Democratic stronghold for decades. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won it by 30 points. In 2024, Scott took it by about 11 points.
He also won Osceola County. This wasn't just a "rural vs. urban" thing. Scott made massive inroads with Hispanic voters, specifically Cuban and Venezuelan communities who have moved toward the GOP in droves. According to exit polls, Scott secured about 55% of the Hispanic vote statewide. When a Republican wins the majority of the Hispanic vote in Florida, the Democrat has almost zero path to victory.
What Scott Actually Campaigned On
So, what was the message? Mucarsel-Powell tried to frame Scott as an extremist, constantly pointing to his "Rescue America" plan. You probably heard the attacks: they claimed he wanted to sunset Social Security and Medicare every five years.
Scott spent millions of his own money (he's incredibly wealthy, as you probably know) to push back. He leaned hard into three things:
- Inflation: Blaming the Biden-Harris administration for the cost of eggs and insurance.
- The Border: Calling for "strong border security" and tying it to local safety.
- Socialism: Labeling his opponent as part of the "radical socialist" wing of the Democratic party.
Whether you like the tactics or not, they worked. Especially in South Florida, the "socialism" tag carries immense weight with families who fled regimes in Latin America.
The Ballot Measure Factor
There’s also the "Amendment Effect." Florida had two huge issues on the ballot: Amendment 3 (Legalizing Marijuana) and Amendment 4 (Abortion Rights).
A lot of Democrats hoped these measures would drive a massive turnout of young and liberal voters who would then vote for Mucarsel-Powell. While the amendments did get a lot of votes—Amendment 4 actually got about 57% support—they both failed because Florida requires a 60% supermajority to pass constitutional amendments.
Interestingly, hundreds of thousands of people voted "Yes" on abortion rights but still voted for Rick Scott. It shows that Florida voters are increasingly comfortable splitting their ticket or prioritizing economic issues over social ones when it comes to candidate selection.
Rick Scott’s History of Narrow Wins
To understand why 2024 was so different, you have to look at how Scott got here. The guy basically built a career on 1% margins.
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- 2010 Governor Race: Won by 1.2%
- 2014 Governor Race: Won by 1%
- 2018 Senate Race: Won by 0.12%
He was the "Skinny Win" king. In 2024, that reputation is gone. He’s now a dominant force in a state that has firmly moved to the right. This win also gave him the momentum to launch a bid for Senate Republican Leader, though he eventually lost that internal party race to John Thune.
What’s Next for Florida and the Senate?
With this second term, Scott is positioned as one of the most senior voices in the GOP. He’s made it clear he wants to keep pushing his "Make Washington Work" plan, which includes controversial ideas like congressional term limits and a supermajority requirement for any tax increases.
Actionable Takeaways for Following Florida Politics:
If you’re trying to make sense of the current political landscape in Florida, here are the real-world things to watch:
- Watch the Registration Gap: Don't look at "swing state" polls. Look at the Florida Department of State’s monthly voter registration reports. If the GOP lead keeps growing, the 2026 Governor's race (to replace Ron DeSantis) will likely follow this same blowout pattern.
- The Hispanic Realignment: Pay attention to special elections in South Florida. If the GOP maintains double-digit leads in Miami-Dade, the Democratic Party in Florida will need a total "ground-up" redesign to be competitive again.
- Scott's Legislative Moves: Keep an eye on the "Protect Our Seniors Act." Scott has been vocal about this to counter the Medicare attacks. Whether it actually gets traction in a GOP-controlled Senate will tell us how much influence he really has.
Basically, Florida is red. Rick Scott is safe. And the old "purple state" maps? You can probably throw those in the trash for now.
Next Steps for You: Check the final certified results on the Florida Division of Elections website if you want to see the precinct-level data for your specific neighborhood. Understanding how your immediate community voted is often more revealing than looking at the statewide "big picture."