Honestly, if you’ve been watching the ticker today, it’s a bit of a bloodbath for Michael Saylor’s favorite child. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is sliding, and it’s doing so while the broader market is actually putting up a decent fight. It’s a weird vibe. You’d think with Bitcoin hovering in that massive $95,000 range, everything would be coming up roses for the world’s biggest corporate HODLer.
But it isn't.
As of this morning, January 16, 2026, MSTR is catching a lot of heat. The stock basically dropped off a cliff at the open and hasn't really found its footing since. It’s down over 4%, continuing a trend that’s seen it lose a massive chunk of its premium over the last few months.
So, why is Microstrategy stock going down today? It’s not just one thing. It’s a cocktail of index deletions, analyst cold feet, and a "bitcoin yield" story that isn't hitting the way it used to.
The MSCI Ghosting: Why Index Funds Are Dumping MSTR
The elephant in the room is MSCI.
Yesterday, January 15, was a D-Day of sorts for the stock’s inclusion in major indices. For weeks, the rumor mill was spinning about MSCI reclassifying "digital asset treasury" firms. Basically, the index providers are looking at companies where more than 90% of the value comes from crypto rather than the actual business operations.
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They decided MSTR looks more like a closed-end fund than a software company.
- Forced Selling: Because MSCI is moving toward excluding these types of firms, passive funds—the ones that just track an index—are legally required to sell their shares.
- The Numbers: We're talking about billions in outflows. JPMorgan analysts previously pegged the potential hit at nearly $2.8 billion in immediate selling pressure.
- The Sentiment Trap: When the big index players leave, the "safety" narrative for institutional investors starts to crumble.
It’s a classic case of the plumbing of the stock market working against the company. It doesn't matter how much Michael Saylor tweets about "Bitcoin is life" if the Vanguard and BlackRock passive funds are forced to hit the "sell" button.
Why is Microstrategy stock going down today? Analyst Reality Checks
Then you have the analysts. TD Cowen, who have historically been pretty big cheerleaders for the MSTR strategy, just threw a bucket of cold water on the party. They slashed their price target from $500 down to $440.
That hurts.
The reason they gave is actually pretty technical but super important. They're worried about Bitcoin Yield. MicroStrategy’s whole "infinite money glitch" involves issuing new stock to buy more Bitcoin. It works great when the stock is trading at a massive premium to the Bitcoin it owns. But as that premium shrinks, the "yield"—or how much Bitcoin they can buy per share—gets worse.
Basically, they're having to issue more shares to buy the same amount of "digital gold," which dilutes the existing shareholders faster than it adds value.
The "Premium" Problem and the $100k Wall
Let's talk about the premium for a second. In 2025, MSTR was trading at 2.5 times the value of its Bitcoin. People were paying a 150% markup just for the privilege of owning Bitcoin through a stock.
Today? That ratio has collapsed.
We’re seeing it trade much closer to its Net Asset Value (NAV). When the "hype premium" evaporates, the stock goes down even if Bitcoin stays flat. And Bitcoin is staying flat-ish. It’s been banging its head against the $100,000 ceiling for what feels like forever. Without a massive breakout in the underlying asset, there’s no "fuel" to keep the MSTR stock price inflated.
It’s boring. Investors hate boring.
The Software Business is Just... There
MicroStrategy still calls itself a "business intelligence" company. But let’s be real. The software side is tiny compared to the $60 billion in Bitcoin they're sitting on.
Analysts are expecting the software revenue to be down about 1% year-over-year in the upcoming earnings report. While the company is technically profitable on a per-share basis because of tax benefits and Bitcoin accounting, the actual "business" isn't growing. It’s a $120 million software company stapled to a $60 billion hedge fund.
What You Should Actually Do Now
If you're holding MSTR, today feels like a gut punch, but you have to look at the mechanics. This isn't a "the company is going bankrupt" move. It's a "the market is repricing the risk" move.
- Watch the $90,000 Level on BTC: If Bitcoin breaks below $90k, the selling on MSTR will likely accelerate because the company's "safety" margin on its debt starts to thin out.
- Monitor the NAV: Check the actual value of the Bitcoin MSTR holds. If the stock price falls below the value of the Bitcoin (trading at a discount), it usually marks a historical floor for the stock.
- Earnings is the Next Catalyst: The Q4 2025 earnings call is coming up. Listen for how Andrew Kang (the CFO) talks about managing the convertible debt. If they announce a plan to buy back debt or show a path to higher "Bitcoin yield," the stock could bounce.
Keep an eye on the STRK and STRF preferred shares too. They’re paying high dividends (around 11% now), and how those trade can tell you a lot about how much stress the big institutional lenders think the company is under.
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It’s a rocky road. Don't expect it to smooth out until the MSCI exit is fully priced in and Bitcoin finally decides what it wants to do with that $100,000 resistance level.