You've heard it a thousand times at weddings, in movies, or during a messy breakup: "Half of all marriages end in divorce." It’s basically a cultural reflex at this point. People toss that number around like a coin flip, making it sound like walking down the aisle is a 50/50 gamble with your entire life.
Honestly? It's wrong.
That 50% figure is a ghost from the late 1970s and early 1980s. Back then, divorce rates did actually spike. But we're living in 2026 now, and the landscape has shifted. If you’re looking for the real answer to what percentages of marriages end in divorce, you have to look past the scary headlines and into the actual data from the CDC and the U.S. Census Bureau.
The Real Numbers for First Marriages
When we talk about "the divorce rate," we usually mean people getting married for the very first time. For this group, the outlook is actually much sunnier than the old myths suggest.
Recent data indicates that approximately 41% of first marriages in the United States end in divorce. That is a significant drop from the 50% peak of the previous generation. In fact, if you look at the "refined divorce rate"—which measures divorces per 1,000 married women—the numbers have been on a steady, downward slide for about forty years.
Why the drop?
📖 Related: Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Menu: Why You’re Probably Ordering Wrong
Basically, people are waiting.
Millennials and Gen Z are getting hitched much later in life than their parents did. The average age for a first marriage has climbed to nearly 30 for men and 29 for women. When you marry at 30 instead of 19, you usually have a better sense of who you are, what you want, and—crucially—how to manage a bank account.
The Remarriage Trap
Here’s where the numbers get a bit darker. While first marriages are becoming more stable, second and third marriages are... well, they're a different story.
- Second Marriages: About 60% to 67% end in divorce.
- Third Marriages: Around 73% fail.
It’s a bit of a paradox. You’d think someone who has "been there, done that" would be better at picking a partner or navigating conflict. But the data suggests that once you’ve crossed the "divorce threshold" once, it becomes psychologically easier to do it again. Plus, second marriages often come with "bonus" stressors like blended families, step-parenting, and lingering financial obligations from a previous life.
Why Some Marriages Last and Others Crumble
It’s not just about luck. Certain "stabilizers" drastically change the percentages for individual couples.
👉 See also: 100 Biggest Cities in the US: Why the Map You Know is Wrong
The Education Factor
Education is one of the biggest predictors of marital success. If both partners have a college degree, the risk of divorce drops significantly—sometimes to as low as 20-25% over the life of the marriage. Higher education often correlates with higher income, which leads to less stress over the light bill and more resources for things like marriage counseling or childcare.
The Seven-to-Eight-Year Itch
The "seven-year itch" isn't just a movie title. According to the CDC, the median duration for a first marriage that ends in divorce is roughly 8 years.
It turns out that the first five to nine years are the "danger zone." If a couple can make it past the decade mark, their chances of staying together for the long haul increase dramatically.
What Most People Get Wrong
People often think divorce is always "going up" because they see it in the news or among celebrities. But sociologists like Philip Cohen from the University of Maryland have pointed out that we often assume social problems are worse than they actually are.
We also ignore "Gray Divorce."
✨ Don't miss: Cooper City FL Zip Codes: What Moving Here Is Actually Like
While young people are divorcing less, people over the age of 65 are divorcing more. The divorce rate for Boomers has roughly tripled since the 1990s. As people live longer, they’re less willing to spend 30 years in a "meh" relationship once the kids leave the house. They want a "second act." This "Gray Divorce" trend is actually what keeps the overall national average from falling even faster.
Looking Ahead
What does this mean for you?
If you're worried about becoming a statistic, remember that the "50%" number is essentially a myth for the modern couple. Your odds are better than a coin flip, especially if you’ve taken the time to establish your career and your own identity before saying "I do."
Actionable Steps for Marital Longevity
- Wait for it: Marrying after age 25 (and ideally closer to 30) is statistically one of the best ways to lower your divorce risk.
- Talk about money: Since 24% of couples cite financial issues as a primary cause of split, having a clear, honest plan for your finances before the wedding is vital.
- Check the "Co-hab" trap: Interestingly, some studies from the Institute for Family Studies suggest that moving in together before getting engaged can actually increase divorce risk for some groups, likely because it leads to "sliding" into a marriage rather than "deciding" on one. Be intentional.
- Focus on "Bids": Research from the Gottman Institute shows that successful couples constantly make small "bids" for attention—a joke, a touch, a comment—and their partners "turn toward" those bids. It’s the small, daily stuff that builds the 40-year fortress.
The data is clear: marriage isn't dying; it’s just changing. It’s becoming more selective, more mature, and—for those who wait—more stable than it’s been in decades.