You've probably heard the talking heads on TV drone on about the "evangelical vote" like it's some monolith that decides every single election. Honestly, it’s a bit more complicated than that. If you're looking for a straight answer on what percentage of voters are evangelical, the number usually hover somewhere between 20% and 25% of the total electorate, depending on who's doing the counting and how they define the term.
In the 2024 election, for instance, exit polls showed that white evangelical Protestants made up roughly 22% of all voters. That's a slight dip from the 28% we saw back in 2020. Why the drop? Some experts, like those at the Pew Research Center, think it’s a mix of people ditching the "evangelical" label because of its political baggage and a general slide toward secularism in the U.S. Basically, the group is shrinking, but they still punch way above their weight class when it comes to turnout.
Breaking Down the 2024 Exit Polls
When we talk about what percentage of voters are evangelical, we’re usually talking about white evangelicals. They are the bedrock of the Republican party. In the most recent presidential cycle, about 82% of them threw their support behind Donald Trump. That’s a massive block. If you look at the broader "born-again" category, which includes Black and Hispanic Christians who might not use the word "evangelical" but share the theology, the numbers get even bigger.
Research from Arizona Christian University’s Cultural Research Center actually found that Christians of all stripes made up a whopping 72% of the 2024 electorate. But specifically, the "theologically-defined" evangelicals—the ones who actually hold to specific doctrines rather than just checking a box—make up a smaller, more intense slice. These folks are what researcher George Barna calls "SAGE Cons" (Spiritually Active Governance Engaged Conservatives). They had a nearly 99% turnout rate. Can you imagine? Almost every single person in that group showed up to vote.
Why the Definitions Matter
Kinda makes you wonder what counts as "evangelical" anyway, right?
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- Self-identification: This is just someone saying "Yeah, I'm evangelical" when a pollster calls.
- Church attendance: Some researchers only count you if you’re in a pew at least once a month.
- Theology: This is the strictest version, based on the "Bebbington Quadrilateral" (basically: the Bible is the ultimate authority, the sacrifice of Jesus is central, you need a "born again" experience, and you gotta share your faith).
If you use the strict theological definition, the percentage of voters who are evangelical drops to about 7% to 10%. But for political purposes, we usually stick to that 20-22% range of self-identified white evangelicals because that's how the exit polls are structured.
The Swing State Factor
The national average is one thing, but the state-by-state breakdown is where the real drama happens. In places like Georgia or North Carolina, the percentage of voters are evangelical is significantly higher than the national average. In Georgia, white evangelicals make up about a third of the voters. When you add in Black Protestants—who often share evangelical theology but vote very differently—you're looking at a state where religion is the primary lens for almost half the voters.
Contrast that with a state like Wisconsin. There, the "mainline" Protestants (think Methodists or Lutherans) and Catholics are much more prevalent. White evangelicals only make up about 16% of the electorate in the Badger State. This is why you see candidates change their "faith talk" depending on whether they're in Grand Rapids or Milwaukee.
Is the Influence Fading?
It’s tempting to say yes because the raw numbers are down. But that would be a mistake.
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The "nones"—people with no religious affiliation—are now about 22% to 26% of the population, according to Gallup. They are growing fast. However, "nones" are notorious for staying home on election day. Evangelicals, on the other hand, are organized. They have networks. They have pastors giving "voter guides" (which about 15% of evangelical voters say influenced them significantly in 2024).
Even if the percentage of voters are evangelical continues to tick downward, their high engagement keeps them at the center of the conversation. They aren't just voters; they're volunteers and donors.
Key Issues for the Evangelical Block
It’s not just about abortion anymore. In 2024, the top concerns for this group shifted:
- Inflation: Like everyone else, they’re feeling the pinch at the grocery store.
- Immigration: 40% of theologically-defined evangelicals cited this as a top-tier issue.
- Israel: This remains a unique "litmus test" issue for many in this community, especially those with a dispensationalist theology.
What This Means for the 2026 Midterms
Looking ahead to 2026, the percentage of voters are evangelical will likely hold steady or dip slightly more. But here’s the kicker: in midterm elections, turnout is usually lower overall. This typically helps evangelicals. Since they are the most reliable voters in the country, their share of the actual votes cast often rises when the "casual" voters stay home.
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If you’re tracking these numbers for a campaign or just out of curiosity, keep an eye on the Hispanic evangelical vote. In 2024, about 63% of Hispanic Protestants voted for Trump, a huge jump from previous years. This is the new frontier. If the GOP continues to make inroads there, the "evangelical vote" might stop being synonymous with "white" and start looking a lot more diverse.
Actionable Insights for Following the Trends
- Watch the "Born Again" stat: Don't just look for "Evangelical" in polls; the "Born Again or Evangelical" question usually captures a broader, more accurate slice of the religious right.
- Monitor turnout gaps: The real story isn't the percentage of the population, but the percentage of the voters. If 20% of the people are evangelical but they make up 25% of the voters, they have a 5-point "influence bonus."
- Check the suburbs: The biggest shift isn't happening in rural areas, but in the suburbs of cities like Phoenix and Atlanta, where "church-going" is becoming less of a social requirement.
The data shows a group in transition. They are smaller than they were twenty years ago, but they are more focused. Whether you're a political junkie or just trying to understand the neighbor with the yard sign, knowing these percentages is the first step to seeing the real map of American power.
To stay ahead of these shifts, you should regularly check the "Religious Landscape Study" updates from Pew and the post-election deep dives from the Cultural Research Center at ACU, as these sources offer the most granular data on how faith actually translates to the ballot box.