When the dust finally settled on the 2024 presidential election, the map looked a whole lot different than most pundits predicted just months prior. We saw a return of the "red wall" in places nobody expected, and for the first time in twenty years, a Republican candidate walked away with the popular vote. Honestly, that’s the part that still has people scratching their heads or cheering, depending on which side of the aisle they’re on.
So, let’s get into the weeds. What percentage of the vote did Trump get in 2024? According to the final certified results and the most reliable tracking data from places like the Cook Political Report and the American Presidency Project, Donald Trump secured 49.8% of the national popular vote.
He didn't just win the Electoral College; he pulled in roughly 77.3 million votes. Compared to Kamala Harris, who finished with 48.3% and about 75 million votes, it was a definitive shift in the American political landscape. That’s a 1.5-percentage-point margin. In a country as divided as ours, that’s a massive swing from 2020, when Joe Biden won the popular vote by over 4 points.
Breaking Down the 49.8%
It’s one thing to see the number; it’s another to understand how it happened. For years, the narrative was that Republicans could only win by threading the needle in the Electoral College while losing the national vote. Trump flipped that script.
He became the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win a plurality of the popular vote.
Why does this matter? Because it signifies a broader coalition. We’re talking about a move toward the right in almost every demographic. If you look at the Pew Research Center's post-election analysis, the gains weren't just in the deep-red rural areas. They were everywhere.
The Demographic Shift
Trump’s 49.8% wasn't built solely on his traditional base.
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- Hispanic Voters: This was arguably the biggest story. Trump grabbed about 48% of the Hispanic vote. To put that in perspective, he was at 36% in 2020. That is a 12-point jump.
- Young Voters: While Harris still won the 18-29 age group, Trump made serious inroads. He captured roughly 43% of these voters.
- Black Voters: He nearly doubled his support here, moving from 8% in 2020 to 15% in 2024.
It’s wild to think about. A candidate who had been written off by many as "unelectable" after 2020 managed to broaden his appeal during his third run. Basically, the "MAGA" movement expanded its borders.
The Electoral College vs. The Popular Vote
We often focus on the popular vote because it feels like the "will of the people," but the Electoral College is where the game is actually won. In 2024, Trump didn’t just win; he dominated the map.
He ended up with 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226.
To hit that 312 mark, he swept all seven major battleground states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all went red. Some of these were razor-thin, like in Wisconsin where he won by less than a percentage point, but a win is a win.
Why the popular vote percentage matters this time
Usually, the popular vote is a consolation prize for Democrats or a talking point about "broken systems." In 2024, the fact that Trump got nearly 50% of the vote silenced a lot of the arguments regarding his mandate. It's much harder to argue a president doesn't have the support of the country when they actually won more votes than the other person.
The Turnout Factor
Interestingly, turnout was slightly lower than the record-breaking 2020 election, but still incredibly high by historical standards. About 64% of eligible voters showed up.
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One of the biggest reasons Trump hit that 49.8% mark was "differential turnout." This is just a fancy way of saying his people showed up more than her people did. Pew Research found that 89% of Trump’s 2020 supporters came back to vote for him again. Only 85% of Biden’s 2020 supporters did the same for Harris.
That 4% gap is where the election was won.
Also, the "new voters" favored Trump. People who didn't vote in 2020 but decided to jump in for 2024 went for Trump by a margin of 54% to 42%. That’s a huge indicator that his message resonated with the disillusioned or the previously unengaged.
Urban, Suburban, and Rural Divides
The geographic divide actually got wider, even as Trump’s popular vote percentage went up.
In rural areas, he was untouchable. He won those communities by a staggering 40-point margin (69% to 29%). That’s an even bigger lead than he had in 2016 or 2020.
Suburbs were the real battleground. This is where the 2020 election was lost for him, but in 2024, he clawed back significant territory. While Harris held on to many affluent suburban areas, the "working-class" suburbs moved toward Trump.
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Then you have the cities. Harris won urban areas by a huge margin—about 32 points—but even there, Trump shaved off a few percentage points compared to previous years. When you're looking at a national percentage, those small 2% or 3% shifts in deep blue cities like New York or Chicago add up to hundreds of thousands of votes.
Economic Anxiety and the "Why"
If you ask a pollster why the percentage of the vote Trump got in 2024 was so high, they’ll probably point to the economy.
Exit polls from the Roper Center showed that "The Economy" was the number one issue for 32% of voters. Among those people, 81% voted for Trump.
People were feeling the pinch of inflation. Whether it was fair to blame the current administration or not, voters tend to vote with their wallets. The narrative of "are you better off than you were four years ago?" clearly landed with a plurality of the American public.
Actionable Insights for Following Future Trends
If you’re trying to make sense of these numbers for future elections or just to understand the current political climate, here are a few things to keep an eye on:
- Watch the "Non-College" Vote: This is now the bedrock of the Republican party. Trump won voters without a degree by about 14 points.
- Track Hispanic Trends: If Republicans continue to pull 45-50% of the Hispanic vote, the Democratic "blue wall" becomes almost impossible to maintain in states like Arizona or even Nevada.
- The Gender Gap: It’s still there, but it’s shifting. Trump won men by 12 points, while Harris won women by 7. Keep an eye on whether Republicans can continue to narrow the gap with married women.
- Third-Party Impact: In 2024, third-party candidates like Jill Stein and Chase Oliver took a very small slice of the pie—less than 2% combined. In a close election, if that number grows, it usually hurts the incumbent party.
The 2024 results weren't just a fluke. They represented a fundamental realignment of who votes for which party. Trump’s 49.8% popular vote share is a signal that the GOP has successfully transitioned into a multi-ethnic, working-class coalition, at least for now. Understanding these percentages helps cut through the noise of cable news and reveals what the country actually looks like on paper.