If you’ve walked through a grocery store or sat in a waiting room lately, look around. One out of every five people you see is likely covered by Medicaid. That’s not a guess. It’s the reality of the American healthcare system in 2026.
But if you’re looking for a simple, single number to describe what percentage of the population is on Medicaid, you might be surprised by how much that number moves depending on where you live and who you ask.
Roughly 77 million people are currently enrolled in Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) as of the latest 2026 data. To put that into perspective, that is about 23% of the entire U.S. population.
Wait. Let’s back up.
A few years ago, that number was much higher. During the pandemic, the federal government basically told states they couldn't kick anyone off the rolls. Enrollment spiked to over 94 million people. It was a massive safety net. But then came the "unwinding." Starting in 2023 and stretching through 2024, states began checking eligibility again. They purged millions.
Today, we’re living in the "new normal" of Medicaid.
The Big Picture: What Percentage of the Population Is on Medicaid Right Now?
Nationally, the figure sits at roughly 20% to 23%. This depends on whether you count CHIP beneficiaries—who are mostly kids—alongside the standard Medicaid rolls.
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Honestly, the "unwinding" was a bit of a mess. Over 25 million people lost coverage during that period. Some were actually ineligible because they got better jobs or moved. Others? They just didn't get the paperwork in the mail. It’s a concept policy experts call "administrative churn," and it’s why the percentage of the population on Medicaid dropped so sharply between 2023 and 2025.
Why the numbers feel so inconsistent
You’ll see some reports saying 1 in 4 people are on Medicaid, while others say 1 in 5. Both can be true depending on the month.
KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) recently noted that while enrollment declined by about 7.6% in fiscal year 2025, it’s expected to stay almost entirely flat throughout 2026. We've hit a floor. The people who are on it now are generally those who truly meet the strict income and asset requirements.
Your Zip Code Is the Real Deciding Factor
The national average is a bit of a lie. It hides the massive divide between "expansion" and "non-expansion" states.
If you live in a state like Louisiana or New Mexico, the percentage of people on Medicaid is remarkably high. In Louisiana, at its peak, nearly 43% of the population was covered. Meanwhile, in Utah, that number hovers closer to 10%.
Why the gap?
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It’s the Affordable Care Act (ACA). States that expanded Medicaid allow almost any adult with an income below 138% of the federal poverty level to sign up. States that didn't expand—mostly in the South and Midwest—have much stricter rules. In those places, you usually have to be pregnant, a child, elderly, or have a certified disability to even stand a chance of qualifying.
The 2026 Shift
We’re also seeing a huge policy shift this year. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), passed in late 2025, has introduced new federal pressures. Some states are now implementing work requirements, which most experts predict will push the total percentage of the population on Medicaid down even further as people struggle to navigate the new red tape.
The Age Breakdown: It's Mostly About the Kids
If you look at the raw data from CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services), you’ll see that Medicaid is primarily a program for children.
Nearly 48% of all Medicaid enrollees are under the age of 18. In many states, more than half of all births are covered by Medicaid. It’s the backbone of pediatric care in the U.S.
- Children: Roughly 36 million enrollees.
- Adults: About 39 million enrollees (this includes parents, expansion adults, and the elderly).
- Seniors & Disabilities: A smaller slice of the total headcount, but they account for the vast majority of the actual spending because of long-term care costs.
It’s a bit of a paradox. You have millions of healthy kids who don’t cost much to cover, and a few million seniors in nursing homes who cost a fortune. Both are part of that same "percentage of the population."
Misconceptions About Who "Lives" on Medicaid
There’s this idea that once you’re on Medicaid, you’re on it forever.
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That’s rarely the case for adults. Most people use Medicaid as a bridge. They lose a job, their income drops, they sign up, and then they leave the program once they find a new role with benefits.
However, the "under-count" is real. A 2025 study found that many people who are technically enrolled in Medicaid don't even realize they are. They might think they’re uninsured because they haven't used the card in six months. This makes the official "percentage" reported by the government slightly higher than what people report in surveys.
What to Watch for the Rest of 2026
If you’re trying to keep track of these numbers, keep an eye on these three things:
- Work Requirements: As states like Georgia or those following the new federal guidelines implement work mandates, expect the enrollment numbers to dip in those specific regions.
- Postpartum Coverage: Most states have now moved to provide 12 months of coverage for moms after they give birth. This has kept the "adult" percentage of Medicaid higher than it used to be.
- The Budget Gap: KFF reports that 2/3 of state Medicaid directors are worried about budget shortfalls this year. If states run out of money, they might tighten eligibility, further reducing the percentage of the population on the program.
Actionable Steps for Staying Covered
If you or someone you know is part of that 23%, don't take the coverage for granted. The days of "automatic" renewal are long gone.
Check your mail. This sounds stupidly simple, but it’s the #1 reason people lose coverage. States send out yellow or bright blue envelopes when it’s time to renew. If you moved and didn't update your address with the state agency, you’re at risk of being part of the "uninsured" statistic.
Update your contact info online. Most states now have "Member Portals." Log in, make sure your phone number and address are current.
Understand the "Bridge." If your income goes up and you’re booted from Medicaid, you usually qualify for a Special Enrollment Period on the Marketplace (Healthcare.gov). Because of the 2026 marketplace shifts, subsidies have changed, but for many, the cost is still lower than going completely uninsured.
Ultimately, the percentage of the population on Medicaid is a reflection of the country's economic health and its political priorities. Right now, it’s a program that touches nearly one-quarter of all Americans, making it one of the most significant pieces of the U.S. social safety net.