When people argue about the Middle East, they often throw around the "Hamas won the election" card like it’s a simple "yes" or "no" question. But if you actually look at the math, it’s messy. It’s complicated. Honestly, it’s one of the most misunderstood data points in modern politics.
To understand what percentage of Palestinians voted for Hamas, you have to go back to 2006. That was the last time a full legislative election happened in the Palestinian territories. Since then? Nothing. No national votes for twenty years. A teenager living in Gaza today has never seen a ballot box in their life.
The 2006 Election: Breaking Down the 44%
The headline usually says Hamas "won" a majority. That’s true in terms of seats, but it's not the whole story when you look at the actual popular vote.
In the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections, the Hamas "Change and Reform" list received 44.45% of the popular vote. Their main rival, Fatah, took 41.43%.
Wait. 44%? That’s not a majority. It’s a plurality. Basically, more than half of the people who showed up to vote actually picked someone other than Hamas.
So why did they end up with 74 out of 132 seats (about 56% of the parliament)?
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It comes down to a really weird, split electoral system. Half the seats were decided by a national proportional list (where Hamas and Fatah were neck-and-neck), and the other half were decided by "winner-take-all" districts. In those districts, Fatah totally screwed up. They ran too many candidates who split their own vote, allowing Hamas candidates to slide into victory with small margins.
Why did people vote for them?
It’s easy to look back and think every Hamas voter was endorsing a militant ideology. But experts like Dr. Khalil Shikaki, who runs the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), have pointed out for years that the 2006 vote was largely a "protest vote."
Palestinians were fed up. Fatah had been in power forever and was widely seen as corrupt and ineffective. Hamas, at the time, ran on a platform of "Change and Reform." They focused on social services, cleaning up the streets, and being the "honest" alternative.
Exit polls from that day showed that about 77% of Hamas voters actually wanted a peace settlement with Israel. They weren't necessarily voting for war; they were voting against a broken status quo.
What About Today? Support vs. Votes
Since there haven't been elections since 2006, we have to rely on polling. This is where things get even more confusing because public opinion in the West Bank and Gaza fluctuates wildly based on what’s happening on the ground.
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In the most recent 2025 and late 2024 polls from PCPSR, we see some fascinating (and often contradictory) numbers:
- Political Preference: In a hypothetical legislative election held today, support for Hamas usually hovers between 30% and 35%.
- The "October 7" Factor: Support for the decision to launch the attack was initially very high (over 70% in early 2024), but as the war dragged on, those numbers dropped. By late 2025, only about 26% to 46% of Palestinians (depending on the region) still described the decision as "correct."
- The West Bank vs. Gaza Divide: This is the part that surprises people. Support for Hamas is often higher in the West Bank than in Gaza. Why? Because Gazans have had to live under Hamas's actual governance for 18 years. West Bankers see them more as a symbol of resistance against the occupation, while many Gazans are more critical of the day-to-day reality of their rule.
The Reality of "No Choice"
You can't talk about what percentage of Palestinians voted for Hamas without mentioning that the majority of the current population never voted at all.
Think about the demographics. The median age in Gaza is around 18. To have voted in the 2006 election, you had to be 18 then, which means you’d be nearly 40 today.
Roughly 70% of the current population of Gaza was either not born or was too young to vote in 2006.
When people say "The Palestinians chose Hamas," they are technically talking about a minority of the current population who made a choice two decades ago. Since then, Hamas has stayed in power in Gaza through a mixture of military force (the 2007 takeover), the absence of new elections, and the systematic suppression of political rivals.
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The Leadership Vacuum
If Hamas isn't the runaway favorite, who is?
Polls consistently show that the most popular Palestinian leader isn't a Hamas official like Yahya Sinwar or Khalid Mishal. It’s Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader currently serving multiple life sentences in an Israeli prison.
In almost every "two-way" poll between Barghouti and a Hamas leader, Barghouti wins by a landslide. This tells us that Palestinians are looking for a middle ground—someone who represents resistance but isn't tied to the specific Islamist ideology of Hamas or the perceived corruption of the current Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership.
Actionable Insights: Moving Beyond the Number
Understanding these percentages is crucial because it changes how you view the "Day After" the current conflict. Here is what the data actually tells us about the future:
- A Unity Government is the Only Popular Path: Most Palestinians (around 39% in recent polls) don't want Hamas or Fatah to rule alone. They want a unity government. Any peace plan that ignores this likely won't have "buy-in" from the locals.
- Disarmament is a Non-Starter for Many: Despite criticism of Hamas’s governance, about 70% of Palestinians currently oppose the disarmament of the group. This isn't necessarily because they love the group, but because they don't trust anyone else to protect them.
- The Demand for New Elections is Huge: Over two-thirds of the public wants new national elections. They want the chance to finally update that "44%" figure from 2006.
To truly understand the region, we have to stop treating the Palestinian electorate as a monolith. The percentages show a deeply divided, frustrated, and mostly young population that is largely trapped between leaders they didn't choose and a war they can't escape.
If you are looking for a simple answer to what percentage of Palestinians voted for Hamas, the answer is 44% in 2006. But the real answer is that the vast majority of people living there today never got the chance to vote at all.
To get a clearer picture of the current political landscape, you can track the quarterly reports from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, which remains the gold standard for understanding these shifting numbers. Examining these polls district-by-district—especially looking at the differences between Hebron, Ramallah, and Gaza City—provides the nuance that a single percentage simply can't capture.