You’ve seen the headlines. Probably every time you scroll through social media or turn on the news, someone is talking about a "migrant crime wave." It’s a heavy topic. It's also one where people tend to yell louder than they look at actual numbers. Honestly, if you're trying to figure out the real what percentage of immigrants commit crimes, you have to look past the political noise and get into the raw data from the people who actually track this stuff—like the Census Bureau, the Department of Justice, and non-partisan think tanks.
Here is the thing. Most people expect the numbers to be high. But when you look at the research, the reality is kind of the opposite.
The Core Question: What Percentage of Immigrants Commit Crimes?
To get a clear answer, researchers usually look at incarceration rates—the number of people in jail or prison—because that's the most reliable way to track serious criminal behavior. According to a massive 2024 study by economists at Northwestern, Stanford, and Princeton, immigrants are significantly less likely to be incarcerated than people born in the U.S.
In fact, the gap has been widening for decades. Back in 1960, the rates were somewhat close. Today? Immigrants are roughly 60% less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born citizens.
Let's get even more specific with some recent 2025 numbers from the Cato Institute. They broke down incarceration rates per 100,000 people in the population:
- U.S.-Born Citizens: 1,221 per 100,000
- Illegal Immigrants: 613 per 100,000
- Legal Immigrants: 319 per 100,000
Basically, the "percentage" of the immigrant population that is incarcerated is incredibly small. For legal immigrants, it's about 0.32%. For undocumented immigrants, it's about 0.61%. Compare that to the U.S.-born population, where the rate is about 1.22%.
Native-born Americans are roughly twice as likely to be in prison as undocumented immigrants and nearly four times as likely as legal immigrants. It’s a stark difference that rarely makes it into a thirty-second news clip.
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Why the Disconnect Between News and Reality?
You might wonder why we hear so much about specific crimes if the percentages are this low.
It’s often a matter of "anecdote vs. data." When an immigrant commits a high-profile crime, it becomes a national news story. It stays in the cycle for weeks. But when a native-born citizen commits a similar crime, it’s usually treated as local news. This creates a psychological effect where our brains think these events are happening way more often than they actually are.
Also, federal data can be confusing. For example, in 2024, the U.S. Sentencing Commission noted that about 34.7% of people sentenced in federal courts were non-citizens. That sounds huge, right? But wait. When you look closer, 72.3% of those cases were for "immigration offenses"—essentially, the crime of being in the country without papers or re-entering illegally. These aren't violent crimes like robbery or assault; they are administrative violations that the federal government handles.
Breaking Down the Types of Crime
When we talk about what percentage of immigrants commit crimes, we usually care most about violent crime. Do immigrants make communities less safe?
Texas is the only state that specifically tracks the immigration status of every person arrested and convicted. This makes it the "gold standard" for this kind of research. A study of Texas Department of Public Safety data found that:
- U.S.-born citizens were 2.1 times more likely to be arrested for violent crimes than undocumented immigrants.
- U.S.-born citizens were 2.5 times more likely to be arrested for drug crimes.
- U.S.-born citizens were over 4 times more likely to be arrested for property crimes.
Specific offenses show an even bigger gap. For example, weapons-related offenses are almost ten times more common among the native-born population than among immigrants.
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The "Deportation Deterrent"
Why is the rate so much lower? Sociologists have a few theories. One is pretty simple: risk.
If you are an immigrant—especially if you're undocumented—any brush with the law is a "one-strike" deal. A native-born citizen might get a fine or probation for a misdemeanor. An immigrant faces the permanent loss of their life in the U.S. and immediate deportation. That is a massive incentive to stay under the radar and follow the rules.
There’s also the "selection effect." It takes a lot of grit, planning, and motivation to move to a new country. People who do that are usually coming here to work and build a better life, not to risk everything by committing crimes.
What About the Recent "Migrant Surge"?
It's true that the last couple of years have seen a lot of people crossing the border. But does a surge in arrivals mean a surge in crime?
The data from 2024 and early 2025 doesn't really support that. In many cities that have received large numbers of recent arrivals—like New York or Chicago—overall crime rates have actually trended downward or stayed flat during that same period.
According to research published by the American Immigration Council in January 2025, each percentage point increase in the foreign-born population in a metro area is actually associated with a 2.5% reduction in homicides on average. Instead of bringing "chaos," larger immigrant populations often correlate with more "eyes on the street" and revitalized neighborhoods, which can actually make areas safer.
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Looking at Victimization Rates
Interestingly, the Cato Institute released a paper in August 2025 showing that immigrants are actually much more likely to be victims of crime than perpetrators, but they are also becoming more likely to report it.
- Immigrants are 44% less likely to be victims of violent crime than the U.S.-born.
- When they are victims, they are 29% more likely to personally report the crime to the police than native-born victims.
This suggests that the idea of "lawless" immigrant communities where no one talks to the police is largely a myth. Immigrants reported over 5.1 million crimes to the police between 2017 and 2023, leading to hundreds of thousands of arrests.
Actionable Insights: How to Use This Information
If you're trying to have a balanced conversation about this or just want to understand the policy implications, keep these points in mind:
- Check the source: Look for data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) or the Census Bureau (ACS) rather than political memes.
- Distinguish between "Immigration Crimes" and "Street Crimes": If a report says non-citizens are "overrepresented" in federal prison, check if those charges are for "illegal entry" (Title 8, Section 1325). These aren't the same as violent felonies.
- Consider the Texas Data: Since Texas is the only state that tracks this systematically, their reports (often analyzed by the Cato Institute) provide the most granular look at actual criminal behavior versus immigration status.
- Focus on Trends: One high-profile incident doesn't equal a trend. Look at the crime rates in "sanctuary cities" versus "non-sanctuary" cities; multiple studies show there is no statistically significant difference in violent crime rates between the two.
Understanding the real what percentage of immigrants commit crimes helps move the conversation away from fear and toward actual solutions for community safety. The data consistently shows that immigrants, regardless of status, are some of the most law-abiding members of society.
Next Steps for You
- Review the Texas Department of Public Safety annual reports for the most recent year-to-year arrest comparisons.
- Search for the Northwestern University 150-year study (published in 2024) to see how these trends have held up since the 19th century.
- Look up your own city's crime statistics and compare them against the growth of the local immigrant population to see the local impact.