For decades, political pundits treated the "Latino vote" like a monolith—a reliably blue block that Democrats could bank on every November. But if you look at the 2024 election data, that old narrative didn't just crack; it basically shattered. People are asking what percentage of Hispanics vote Republican because the recent numbers feel like a glitch in the matrix compared to the era of Barack Obama or even George W. Bush.
Honestly, the shift isn't just about one guy or one election cycle. It's a fundamental realignment. While Democrats still carried the majority of the Hispanic vote in 2024, the margin has shrunk so much it’s barely a gap in some parts of the country. We’re talking about a move from a 30-plus point lead for Democrats a few years ago to something that looks much more like a toss-up today.
The 2024 Breakaway: By the Numbers
So, let's get into the weeds. According to data from the Pew Research Center and Edison Research exit polls, Donald Trump pulled in roughly 46% to 48% of the Hispanic vote nationally in 2024.
That is huge.
To put it in perspective, Joe Biden won this group by about 25 to 33 points in 2020 (depending on which poll you trust). By 2024, Kamala Harris’s lead among Hispanics narrowed to just a few percentage points in several datasets. In fact, Pew’s post-election analysis suggested Trump drew nearly even, losing the Hispanic vote by only about 3 points (51% to 48%).
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Why the sudden jump?
It wasn't just a general vibe. The shift was driven by very specific groups within the community.
- The Gender Gap: This is where things get wild. For the first time in modern history, a Republican candidate won a majority of Hispanic men. We're talking about roughly 54% to 55% of Latino men backing the GOP ticket.
- The Young Voter Factor: You’d think younger voters would stay blue, right? Not exactly. Hispanic voters under 50, particularly men, moved toward the Republican column in droves.
- The "New" Voter: Interestingly, many Hispanics who sat out the 2020 election showed up in 2024 and went for Trump. According to Pew, about 60% of Hispanic "new" or "returning" voters (those who didn't vote in 2020) chose the Republican candidate.
Regional Hotspots and the "Tejanos"
If you want to see where what percentage of Hispanics vote Republican really hits the ground, you have to look at South Texas. The Rio Grande Valley—historically a Democratic stronghold for a century—saw counties like Starr County flip Republican for the first time since the 1890s.
It’s not just Texas, though. In Florida, the shift was even more pronounced. In Miami-Dade County, which is nearly 70% Hispanic, the Republican ticket won by double digits. That’s a 19-point swing from 2020. Even in California, where the "blue wall" is supposed to be impenetrable, majority-Hispanic counties like Imperial County saw swings of over 20% toward the GOP.
Is it the Economy, or Something Else?
When you ask people why they’re switching, the answer is almost always "la economía."
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Inflation hit everyone, but it hit service-industry workers and small business owners—where Hispanics are heavily represented—especially hard. Data from UnidosUS showed that cost of living and jobs were the top two concerns for over 50% of Latino voters. When the price of eggs and rent doubles, traditional party loyalty starts to feel like a luxury people can't afford.
But there's a cultural layer here too. Many Hispanic families are deeply conservative on "kitchen table" issues. They value entrepreneurship, religious freedom, and traditional family structures. For a lot of these voters, the modern Democratic party's focus on progressive social issues feels... well, foreign. They aren't "becoming" Republican so much as they are finding that the GOP's rhetoric on hard work and "America First" aligns more with their daily reality.
The Myth of the Monolith
If there’s one takeaway from the 2024 data, it’s that there is no such thing as "the" Hispanic vote.
A third-generation Mexican-American in Arizona has a completely different political outlook than a Venezuelan exile in Doral or a Puerto Rican in Philly.
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- Cuban Americans: Still the most reliably Republican, with roughly 54-58% support for the GOP.
- Mexican Americans: Traditionally blue, but shifting rapidly, especially among those in rural or border areas.
- Puerto Ricans: Remained the most loyal to the Democratic party in 2024 (around 65% support), though even here, the margins tightened compared to 2016.
What Most People Get Wrong
People think this shift is a fluke. They think it's just about a "strongman" personality or a specific campaign cycle.
They're wrong.
This has been building since 2016. The GOP didn't just get lucky; they actually showed up. While 45% of Latino voters told pollsters they weren't contacted by either party, the Republicans significantly increased their ground game in key states. They stopped talking about immigration 24/7 and started talking about the "American Dream" and "freedom."
It worked.
Actionable Insights for the Future
If you're looking at these numbers and trying to figure out what happens next, keep your eyes on these three things:
- Watch the 2026 Midterms: If Republicans can hold onto the 45%+ share of the Hispanic vote during a non-presidential year, the realignment is permanent.
- Monitor "Naturalized" Voters: Data shows that naturalized citizens (those born abroad who became citizens) are actually shifting to the right faster than US-born Hispanics. About 51% of Hispanic naturalized citizens voted Republican in 2024.
- Follow the Gender Split: If Democrats can't figure out how to talk to Latino men about the economy and masculinity without sounding condescending, they will lose this demographic for a generation.
The bottom line? The question isn't just what percentage of Hispanics vote Republican anymore. The real question is whether the Democratic party can ever get back to the 60-70% margins they used to enjoy. Right now, it looks like a steep uphill climb.