Ever since the dust settled on the 2024 election, everyone's been asking the same thing. People want to know the "military vote." It sounds like a monolith, doesn't it? Like every person in a uniform walks into the booth and pulls the same lever. But if you've ever actually spent time on a base or in a VFW hall, you know that's just not how it works.
Let's get into the weeds of what percentage of active military voted for Trump. Honestly, the numbers might surprise you, especially if you're relying on old stereotypes from the '80s or '90s. The military isn't just a GOP stronghold anymore; it's a reflection of a deeply divided America.
Breaking Down the 2024 Numbers
If we look at the most recent data from the 2024 election, the picture is pretty clear but nuanced. According to exit polls and comprehensive surveys like those from Pew Research Center and GOVX, Donald Trump maintained a significant lead among those with military ties.
Basically, about 65% of voters who served in the military cast their ballot for Trump in 2024. That’s a jump from the 60% he secured in 2020. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, pulled in about 34%.
But wait. There's a catch.
Most of those exit polls lump "active duty" and "veterans" together. If you're looking strictly for what percentage of active military voted for Trump, you have to look at internal pulse checks. For instance, a major GOVX survey conducted leading up to the election showed that among specifically active duty respondents, about 66% favored Trump.
👉 See also: Ethics in the News: What Most People Get Wrong
Why the Gap Exists
It's not just about "liking" a candidate. It’s about the issues. In that same GOVX report, service members cited:
- The Economy and Inflation: This was the #1 issue.
- Border Security: A massive concern for those tasked with national defense.
- Foreign Policy: A growing weariness of "forever wars."
Interestingly, things like LGBTQ+ rights or climate change ranked way down at the bottom for this specific demographic. It's a pragmatic group. They care about the cost of eggs and whether they’re going to be deployed to a conflict they don’t believe in.
Is the Military Still a Republican Stronghold?
Kinda. But it's complicated.
Historically, the military leaned heavily Republican. Think back to the Reagan era—it wasn't even a question. But the 2020 election saw a weird dip. Some polls, like a controversial one from the Military Times back then, actually suggested Joe Biden was neck-and-neck with Trump among active-duty troops.
Trump’s relationship with the brass hasn't always been smooth. You've got former generals like John Kelly and Mark Milley coming out with some pretty harsh critiques. But here’s the thing: the rank-and-file often feel differently than the "E-ring" at the Pentagon.
✨ Don't miss: When is the Next Hurricane Coming 2024: What Most People Get Wrong
The Generational Shift
We're seeing a split between the "Old Guard" and the younger Gen Z soldiers. Younger vets—the ones who served in the tail end of Iraq and the withdrawal from Afghanistan—are often more skeptical of the political establishment.
Dan Caldwell, a public policy advisor and Iraq vet, noted that there is a "righteous anger" within the Global War on Terror (GWOT) community. They feel the system failed them. For many of these younger voters, Trump’s "America First" rhetoric isn't just a slogan; it’s an exit ramp from decades of policy they see as a failure.
The JD Vance and Tim Walz Factor
You can't talk about the 2024 military vote without mentioning the VPs. We had a Marine (Vance) vs. a National Guardsman (Walz).
Pew Research found that veterans were much more likely to have a favorable view of JD Vance (53%) compared to Tim Walz (34%). Why? Part of it is the "stolen valor" accusations that flew around during the campaign regarding Walz’s retirement and rank. Whether those claims were fair is a whole other debate, but in the eyes of many service members, those things matter. A lot.
Comparing 2016, 2020, and 2024
Let's look at the trajectory. It’s not a straight line.
🔗 Read more: What Really Happened With Trump Revoking Mayorkas Secret Service Protection
- 2016: Trump wins veterans 61% to 35% against Hillary Clinton.
- 2020: The gap narrows. Trump gets roughly 60% to Biden's 39%.
- 2024: The gap widens again. Trump hits 65%, while Harris drops to 34%.
What changed? Honestly, the 2024 election felt more like a referendum on the current state of the world. With conflicts escalating in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, the "no new wars" promise from the Trump camp resonated.
What This Means for the Future
The military vote is becoming more diverse, just like the rest of the country. While white veterans favor the GOP by a huge margin (72% in some polls), Black veterans lean overwhelmingly Democratic (about 82%).
As the military continues to diversify, the "standard" Republican lead might face more pressure. But for now, the data shows that the populist wing of the GOP has a very firm grip on the hearts and minds of those in uniform.
Actionable Insights for Following Military Trends
If you're trying to keep a pulse on how the military is leaning, don't just look at CNN or Fox exit polls. They're often too broad.
- Check the "Pulse Checks": Organizations like Blue Star Families or GOVX often do deep dives into the actual concerns of families, not just political preferences.
- Watch the UOCAVA Data: The Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) is where the actual ballots are tracked. It's the "gold standard" for seeing how many troops actually voted, though it doesn't always show who they voted for.
- Look at "Military Towns": Keep an eye on counties like Onslow, NC (Camp Lejeune) or El Paso, TX (Fort Bliss). The shifts in these specific counties often tell a truer story than national averages.
Understanding the military vote requires looking past the uniform and seeing the individual. They are voters concerned about their families, their paychecks, and their future—just like everyone else.