It’s the question that defines modern American politics. Every four years, we see the same cable news maps, the same exit poll graphics, and the same heated debates about who showed up and who didn't. Specifically, if you want to know what percent of white people voted for Trump, the answer isn't just one number—it's a story of three different elections and a shifting cultural divide.
Honestly, the numbers are pretty consistent, but the "why" behind them has changed quite a bit since 2016.
The Baseline Numbers: 2016 to 2024
Let’s get the raw data out of the way first.
In 2024, Donald Trump secured about 55% of the white vote nationally, according to validated voter data from Pew Research Center. If that sounds familiar, it's because it is. In 2020, he hit that exact same 55% mark. Back in 2016, when he first shocked the world, he took 54% of white voters.
Think about that for a second. Despite everything that happened between his first inauguration and his 2024 return—the controversies, the policy shifts, the legal battles—his support among white voters stayed almost perfectly flat.
📖 Related: McWilliams Funeral Home Obits: What Most People Get Wrong About Finding Recent Notices
But "white voters" is a massive category. It’s basically useless to look at it as a monolith. When you peel back the layers, you see where the real action is happening.
The Education Gap is Everything
If you’re looking for the biggest predictor of a Trump vote, it isn't just race. It's the diploma. Or the lack of one.
The divide between white college graduates and white voters without a degree is huge. Kinda staggering, actually. In 2024, white voters without a four-year college degree broke for Trump by a massive margin—roughly 66% to 32%.
Meanwhile, white college graduates are a totally different story. They’ve been drifting away from the GOP for years. In the most recent election, they were much more split, with a slight edge often leaning toward the Democratic ticket in many suburban areas.
- White Non-College Men: This is Trump’s strongest base, often hitting over 70% support.
- White Non-College Women: Also a strong group for Trump, usually in the low 60s.
- White College Women: The group that has shifted most aggressively toward Democrats since 2016.
What Most People Get Wrong About White Women
There’s this persistent myth that white women "abandoned" Trump. You’ve probably seen the op-eds.
The reality? A majority of white women have voted for the Republican candidate in every single presidential election since 2004. Trump is no exception. In 2024, roughly 52% to 53% of white women voted for Trump.
It’s true that college-educated white women are much more likely to vote for Harris or Biden. But they are outnumbered by white women without degrees and white evangelical women, both of whom are some of Trump’s most loyal supporters.
The Religious Component
You can't talk about these percentages without mentioning faith. White evangelical Protestants are the bedrock of the MAGA movement.
In 2024, Trump pulled in about 81% of the white evangelical vote. It’s a group that prioritizes things like judicial appointments and traditional values, and they haven't budged an inch since 2016. On the flip side, white voters who identify as "religiously unaffiliated" (the "nones") went heavily for the Democratic side.
Why the White Vote "Stayed Flat" While Trump Grew
Here is the most interesting part of the 2024 results. Trump won by a larger margin than he did in 2016, but he didn't do it by winning more white people.
He did it by making massive gains with Black and Hispanic men.
Because his support among white voters was already so "maxed out" in rural and working-class areas, there wasn't much room to grow there. Instead, the 2024 coalition became more racially diverse. While 55% of white people voted for him, he also managed to snag nearly half of the Hispanic vote and double-digit support from Black men.
What Really Happened in the Suburbs?
Suburbs used to be "safe" Republican territory. Not anymore.
The "Pink Wave" and the shift of white, high-income professionals have made places like Oakland County, Michigan, or the "doughnut counties" around Milwaukee much more competitive. In these areas, the percentage of white people voting for Trump actually dipped compared to the old GOP benchmarks of the Bush era.
But Trump made up for that loss by running up the score in "Working Class Country"—counties in the Rust Belt and the South where white voters feel the economy has left them behind.
Actionable Insights for Following the Data
If you're trying to track these trends for the next cycle, don't just look at the "White" line in the exit polls. It’s too broad. Instead, focus on these three things:
- Watch the "Diploma Divide": Check if Republicans continue to gain with white working-class voters or if Democrats can claw back the 3-4% they lost in 2024.
- Monitor the "Gender Gap" within the race: White men and white women are voting differently than they did 20 years ago. The gap is widening, particularly among younger voters.
- Check Validated Voter Data: Exit polls (the stuff you see on election night) are often corrected months later by groups like Pew Research or the AP VoteCast. Always look for "validated" numbers for the real truth.
The white vote isn't a monolith, and it isn't "declining" for Trump—it's just re-sorting itself based on education and geography.