You’ve probably heard it a thousand times at weddings, in movies, or from that one cynical uncle: "Half of all marriages end in divorce." It’s one of those "facts" that has become so embedded in our brains that we don’t even bother to check if it’s still true.
Well, honestly? It isn't. Not anymore.
If you are looking for a simple number, the answer to what percent of US marriages end in divorce is currently hovering somewhere between 35% and 42% for first marriages. That’s a far cry from the coin-flip odds we’ve been told to expect since the late 1970s. While the "50% myth" keeps circulating like an old chain letter, the reality in 2026 is much more nuanced—and surprisingly, more optimistic for new couples.
The Death of the 50% Myth
The 50% statistic wasn't always a lie; it was just a snapshot of a very specific, chaotic time in American history. Back in the late 1970s and early 1980s, divorce rates did actually peak. You had the "No-Fault Divorce" revolution sweeping through states, and a generation of people who had been stuck in deeply unhappy or even abusive situations finally found the exit door.
But things changed.
The people getting married today aren't the same as the people getting married in 1975. According to data from the National Center for Family & Marriage Research and the CDC, the "refined divorce rate"—which measures divorces per 1,000 married women—has been on a steady decline for about forty years. In 2022, that rate hit a near-historic low of 14.56 per 1,000 married women.
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Basically, we are getting better at staying together, or at least, we're being way more selective about who we say "I do" to in the first place.
Why the Numbers Are Actually Dropping
It turns out that Millennials and Gen Z are "killing" divorce just like they supposedly killed napkins and department stores. But they aren't doing it by magic. They’re doing it by waiting.
The average age for a first marriage is now nearly 30 for men and 29 for women. In the '60s, you were practically an old maid if you weren't hitched by 22. By waiting until they have established careers and a clearer sense of self, younger generations are bypassing the "starter marriage" phase that inflated the statistics for Boomers.
Education and the "Marriage Gap"
Education is a massive predictor of whether a marriage will last. It’s almost unfair. If you have a college degree, your risk of divorce drops significantly. Recent studies show that for women with a bachelor’s degree, there is about a 78% chance their marriage will last at least 20 years.
Compare that to couples with only a high school diploma, where the divorce rate for first marriages remains closer to that old 50% mark. It isn't just about the diploma, obviously. It’s about the financial stability and lower stress levels that usually come with higher-paying jobs. Money stress is the "silent killer" of domestic bliss.
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The "Gray Divorce" Exception
While young people are staying married longer, there is one group bucking the trend: the 50+ crowd.
"Gray divorce" has tripled since the 1990s. Sociologists like Philip Cohen from the University of Maryland have pointed out that while the overall rate is down, older couples are calling it quits at record speeds. Once the kids are out of the house (the "empty nest" syndrome), many couples realize they’ve grown into completely different people. They have 20 or 30 years of healthy life left, and they don't want to spend it with someone they no longer recognize.
It Gets Riskier the More You Do It
If you want to see where the high percentages really live, you have to look at second and third marriages.
- First Marriages: ~40% end in divorce.
- Second Marriages: ~60% to 67% end in divorce.
- Third Marriages: ~73% end in divorce.
It’s counterintuitive. You’d think we’d get better at marriage with practice. But second marriages often come with "baggage" that first ones don't—blended family drama, alimony payments to exes, and a lower "threshold" for leaving. Once you’ve survived one divorce, the second one doesn't seem quite as scary. You know you’ll survive it.
What Actually Causes the Split in 2026?
We aren't just guessing why people leave anymore. Forensic accountants and family therapists have a pretty good handle on the "big three" reasons:
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- Financial Infidelity: It isn't just about being broke. It’s about secret credit cards, hidden debt, or one partner spending "their" money without telling the other. In 2025 and 2026, with the gig economy and digital banking, it’s easier than ever to hide money. When it comes out, the trust is often gone for good.
- The "Slow Drift": This is the most common reason cited in no-fault divorces today. It isn't a blowout fight or a scandalous affair. It’s just... nothing. You wake up and realize you're roommates who share a Costco membership but haven't had a real conversation in three years.
- Communication Style: John Gottman, a famous marriage researcher, can predict divorce with 90% accuracy just by watching a couple argue. It isn't that they argue, it’s how. Contempt—rolling your eyes, mocking your partner, acting superior—is the single biggest predictor that you’ll end up in the 40% category.
Actionable Steps to Beat the Odds
Statistics are just numbers; they aren't your destiny. If you're worried about becoming a "stat," here is what the data says actually works:
- Talk about money before the wedding. Not just "how much do we have," but "how do you feel about debt?" and "who pays for what?"
- Wait until after 25. The risk of divorce drops significantly for every year you wait to marry in your early 20s.
- Prioritize "turning toward." When your partner says, "Hey, look at that bird," and you look? That’s a tiny deposit in the marriage bank. Do that 100 times a day.
- Keep a "Shared Future" focus. Couples who regularly discuss their goals for 5, 10, and 20 years down the line are much less likely to experience the "slow drift."
The bottom line is that the divorce rate is not a fixed law of nature. It’s a reflection of our culture’s shifting values, economic pressures, and personal choices. While what percent of US marriages end in divorce is still a significant number, the trend is moving toward more stable, intentional unions.
If you are looking for more specific data on your own state or demographic, you can check the latest provisional tables from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics. They update these numbers annually, and the "South" typically sees higher rates than the "Northeast," largely due to younger marriage ages in those regions. Knowing the landscape doesn't just satisfy curiosity—it helps you navigate your own relationship with your eyes wide open.
Next Steps for You:
Check your state’s specific divorce laws. Understanding things like "waiting periods" or "equitable distribution" can drastically change how a separation looks in practice. If you are currently in a relationship, consider a "financial date night" to align your spending habits before they become a point of contention.