You’ve probably heard it a thousand times: New York is a "deep blue" monolith. People picture Manhattan skyscrapers and Brooklyn brownstones, assuming everyone from Montauk to Buffalo is carrying a Democratic party card. But if you actually look at the data coming out of the New York State Board of Elections in 2025 and early 2026, the reality is a lot more complicated.
Honestly, the "blue state" label hides a massive, shifting demographic.
As of the most recent voter enrollment data from November 2025 and into this year, 22.41% of registered voters in New York are Republicans. That’s about 2.8 million people. On paper, it sounds small compared to the 48.15% who are Democrats. But here’s the kicker: the "blanks"—people who don't affiliate with any party—have exploded to over 25%. For the first time in modern history, Republicans aren't just fighting Democrats; they're the third-largest group in many parts of the state.
What Percent of New York is Republican Right Now?
Numbers tell a story, but they don't always tell the whole story. If you’re asking what percent of New York is Republican, you have to distinguish between who is "registered" and who actually "votes" GOP.
In the 2024 Presidential election, the results shocked a lot of pundits. Donald Trump pulled roughly 43.3% of the statewide vote. Think about that for a second. While only about 22% of the state is registered as Republican, nearly double that percentage actually voted for the Republican candidate. This suggests a massive "cross-over" or "unaffiliated" swing that is redefining New York politics.
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The Geographic Split: It’s Not Just Upstate vs. Downstate
We used to say everything north of Westchester was "Red" and everything south was "Blue." That’s basically a myth now. The 2024 and 2025 data show that the Republican base is becoming more suburban and, surprisingly, more concentrated in specific urban pockets.
- The City Strongholds: In New York City, Republican enrollment is low—around 10.7% overall. But look at Staten Island (Richmond County). It remains a fierce Republican bastion where Trump cleared 64% of the vote. Parts of Queens and southern Brooklyn are also seeing a "rightward" shift among immigrant communities.
- The Suburbs are Purple: Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island are no longer reliably anything. In 2024, Trump actually won Nassau County by 4 points and Suffolk by 10 points.
- Upstate is a Patchwork: You’ve got deep red counties like Steuben (65.9% Republican vote) and Allegany, but then you hit "Blue Islands" like Buffalo (Erie County), Rochester (Monroe County), and the massive Democratic stronghold of Ithaca (Tompkins County).
Why the GOP Numbers are Sneakily Growing
According to a review by the New York Public Interest Research Group (NYPIRG), Democratic enrollment has actually been "slipping" over the last few years. In 2010, Democrats made up nearly 50% of the state. By late 2025, that fell to 48.1%.
Meanwhile, Republicans have stopped their long-term decline. They are "inching upwards," especially in the NYC suburbs.
Why? It’s often about the "bread and butter" issues. People in the Hudson Valley and Long Island are increasingly vocal about property taxes, the cost of living, and crime. Even if they don't officially change their registration from "Blank" to "Republican," they are pulling the GOP lever more often. This is a crucial distinction when trying to figure out what percent of New York is Republican. Enrollment is one thing; behavior at the ballot box is another.
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The Turnout Factor
Here is a fact that usually gets buried in the news: Republicans in New York are better at showing up.
In the 2024 general election, the Republican turnout rate was roughly 74%. Democrats? Only 65%. Unaffiliated voters were even lower at 56%. This means that even though there are fewer Republicans on the books, their "effective" power is magnified because they are highly motivated. If you’re a Republican candidate in New York, you aren’t trying to outnumber the Democrats; you’re trying to out-work them.
Real Data: A County-by-County Glimpse
If you want to see the "red" in New York, you have to look at the 2024-2025 certified results. It’s not a sea of blue. It looks more like a tie in terms of land area.
- Hamilton County: Often the most Republican-leaning, with high GOP registration and voting patterns.
- Rockland County: A major swing area that went 55.9% for the GOP in the last major cycle.
- The Bronx: The lowest Republican density. Only about 27% of Bronx voters went for the GOP, which—believe it or not—is actually an increase from previous years.
The Future of the "GOP Percent" in NY
Can New York ever "go red"? Probably not for a statewide governor's race or a presidential bid in the immediate future, simply because New York City's sheer volume of Democratic voters acts as a massive anchor.
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However, the "percent" of New York that identifies as Republican or leans Republican is clearly on the rise. We are seeing a "rightward shift" in the Hudson Valley and Long Island that has given Republicans control of several key Congressional seats. This makes the state a central battleground for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
The real number to watch isn't the 22% of registered Republicans. It's the 25% of "Blank" voters. In the 2025 primaries, we saw record turnout from young voters (voters aged 18-29 doubled their participation in some areas). If those young, unaffiliated voters continue to feel squeezed by the state's high cost of living, the Republican party has a massive opportunity to grow that 22% into something much more formidable.
Actionable Insights for New York Voters
If you are trying to navigate the political landscape in the Empire State, keep these steps in mind:
- Check Your Registration: New York has a "closed primary" system. This means if you are one of the 25% of "Blank" voters, you cannot vote in the Republican or Democratic primaries. If you want to influence who the GOP picks for Governor in the next cycle, you must be a registered Republican.
- Look Beyond the Map: Don't assume your neighbor's politics based on where you live. The 2024 results proved that even "Blue" NYC has deep red pockets in the Bronx and Brooklyn that are growing.
- Monitor the "Suburban Swing": Keep a close eye on Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester. These counties are the "canaries in the coal mine" for New York's political future. As they go, so goes the state's balance of power.
The data is clear: New York is not a monolith. It’s a state of 19 million people where nearly 1 in 4 are registered Republicans, and nearly 1 in 2 voted for a Republican president. The "Blue" wall is still standing, but it’s definitely showing some cracks.