Honestly, if you're standing on a street corner in Manhattan right now, you aren't thinking about "meteorological trends." You're probably thinking about how the wind tunnel between those glass skyscrapers is currently trying to steal your soul.
It's cold. Really cold.
As of tonight, Thursday, January 15, 2026, the mercury in New York City is sitting at a crisp 31°F. But that number is a total lie. Because of a 14 mph wind whipping in from the west, the "feels like" temperature is actually a biting 21°F. It’s the kind of night where you don't just wear a coat; you wear a strategy.
The sky is clear, which is a bit of a silver lining, but don't let that fool you into thinking a spring thaw is coming. We are officially in the thick of a classic New York winter, and the atmosphere has decided to get very serious about it.
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The Week Ahead: What Is the Weather in New York City Doing?
Basically, we’re looking at a roller coaster that only goes down or sideways. Today saw a high of 41°F, which felt almost philanthropic compared to what’s coming. Tonight, the temperature is going to bottom out at 21°F.
If you’re planning your weekend, Friday is looking "partly sunny" with a high of 34°F. That sounds okay until you realize the night brings a 35% chance of snow showers and a low of 20°F.
Saturday is where things get messy. We’re expecting a mix of rain and snow with a 65% chance of precipitation. The high will struggle to reach 39°F, and the low will hover around 32°F. It’s going to be that slushy, grey New York mess that ruins your favorite suede boots.
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A Quick Peek at the Next 10 Days
- Sunday, Jan 18: Cloudy and cold. High 33°F / Low 23°F.
- Monday, Jan 19: Sunny but freezing. High 35°F / Low 15°F. (Yes, fifteen.)
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Bright sunshine, but it's a trap. The high is only 21°F, and the low is a staggering 14°F.
- The Long View: By next weekend, specifically Sunday, January 25, we’re looking at more snow and a low of 6°F.
Why This January Feels Different
We’re currently dealing with a return of the polar vortex pattern. After a somewhat "fake" warmth earlier in the month—what some call a January thaw—the Arctic air has officially reclaimed the East Coast.
Interestingly, 2025 ended as the coldest December we’ve seen since 2010. We’re also coming off a pretty significant rainfall deficit—about 10 inches short—so this recent uptick in snowy and rainy forecasts is actually the atmosphere trying to play catch-up.
The presence of a weak La Niña is also pulling some strings. Historically, La Niña winters in the 2020s have been wetter than they used to be back in the 90s. While we aren't seeing a massive blizzard yet, the consistent "chance of snow showers" on the 10-day forecast is a direct result of that moisture-rich air clashing with the cold lobes of the polar vortex.
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What Most People Get Wrong About NYC Winters
Most visitors think the "average" temperature of 39°F (the historical norm for mid-January) means it's manageable. It’s not. The humidity in the city makes the cold "heavy." It gets into your bones in a way that dry mountain cold just doesn't.
Also, the "wind chill" isn't just a gimmick weather apps use to scare you. Between the Hudson River and the "canyon effect" of the avenues, a 15 mph wind can feel twice as strong.
Survival Tactics for the Next Few Days
If you're out and about, you've gotta prioritize the extremities. Forget looking like a fashion icon for a second.
- The 15°F Rule: When the low hits 15°F on Monday night, standard wool coats won't cut it. You need a down-filled parka that covers your thighs.
- Moisture Management: Saturday’s rain-snow mix is a nightmare for feet. If your shoes aren't waterproof, you'll be miserable within three blocks.
- The UV Index Lie: Even when it’s 21°F and sunny (like it will be Tuesday), that UV index is low (around 1 or 2), but the sun reflects off the snow and glass. Wear sunglasses unless you enjoy squinting for six hours.
Actionable Next Steps
Check your radiator. If you live in an older building, this upcoming drop to 14°F on Tuesday is going to test your heating system. If you're traveling, keep an eye on Friday night's snow showers; it doesn't take much for LaGuardia or JFK to start seeing delays when the wind picks up.
Basically, bundle up, keep your boots waxed, and maybe buy some extra cocoa. It's going to be a long, cold stretch.