Honestly, if you're standing in Surprise right now looking for a jacket, you're experiencing that classic Arizona winter flip-flop. As of early this morning, January 17, 2026, the current temperature in Surprise is a crisp 50°F. It’s clear, the air is dry at about 26% humidity, and there's a light 5 mph breeze coming out of the north.
But don't let that morning chill fool you into staying indoors all day.
The desert has this wild habit of swinging 30 degrees in a single afternoon. Today’s forecast is actually looking pretty stellar for anyone who hates the typical January slush found in the Midwest. We’re heading toward a high of 75°F. That is basically peak patio weather.
Cracking the Code: What is the Temperature in Surprise Arizona Right Now?
Most people checking the weather for this corner of the West Valley are trying to figure out if they can wear shorts to a spring training game or if they need a heavy parka for a morning walk at White Tank Mountain Regional Park.
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The reality? You usually need both.
Today, January 17, is a perfect example of the "Surprise Swing." While it's 50°F right now during the pre-dawn hours, the sunny skies will bake the valley floor until we hit that 75°F peak. Even with an east wind around 5 mph, it’s going to feel warm under that UV index of 3.
The Hour-by-Hour Breakdown for Today
If you're planning your Saturday, here is how the numbers are actually going to play out:
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- Morning (8 AM - 10 AM): It stays cool. Expect it to hover between 52°F and 60°F.
- Midday (11 AM - 2 PM): This is when the sun does its heavy lifting, jumping from 65°F to the low 70s.
- Peak Heat (3 PM - 5 PM): We hit that 75°F high.
- Evening (6 PM and later): Once the sun dips behind the mountains, the heat vanishes. It'll drop back toward the overnight low of 48°F.
Basically, the desert doesn't hold onto heat at night. There’s no humidity to act as a blanket, so the warmth just escapes into space the second the sun goes down.
Is this "Normal" for Surprise in January?
Kinda, but it's actually running a bit warm. Historically, a typical January day in Surprise averages a high of 66°F and a low of 41°F. Seeing 75°F today means we're nearly ten degrees above the long-term average.
We’ve been seeing a lot of this lately. In fact, just this past December 2025, nearby Phoenix was smashing records with 80-degree days deep into the winter. Experts like Randy Cerveny from Arizona State University have noted that we haven't broken a low-temperature record in decades, while high-temperature records are falling like dominoes.
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The "Surprise" in the city's name reportedly came from the founder, Flora Mae Statler, who once said she'd be "surprised if the town ever amounted to much." Well, it's a massive suburb now, but the weather remains the biggest surprise for newcomers who expect it to be "hot" 24/7.
Quick Comparison: Surprise vs. The Rest of the Valley
| Metric | Surprise (Today) | Average Jan High | Record High (Region) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | 75°F | 66°F | 88°F |
| Humidity | 16% (Day) | 50% | N/A |
| Rain Chance | 0% | 8% | N/A |
What You Actually Need to Pack
If you’re visiting or just moved here, the "what is the temperature in surprise arizona" question is only half the battle. The other half is moisture. At 16% humidity today, you will feel the dry air before you feel the heat.
- The Layer Strategy: Start with a hoodie. Peel it off by 11 AM. Put it back on at 5:30 PM.
- Hydration is Real: You won't sweat visibly because it evaporates instantly. Drink more water than you think you need.
- Sunscreen: Even at 75°F, the Arizona sun is intense. A UV index of 3 isn't "extreme," but it’ll still give you a burn if you’re out golfing for four hours.
Looking Ahead at the Week
The sunny streak isn't going anywhere immediately. Tomorrow, Sunday, Jan 18, looks like a repeat with a high of 74°F and some broken clouds. We might see things get a bit more "overcast" by Monday and Tuesday, but the mercury is staying firmly in the low 70s.
If you were hoping for rain to wash the dust off your car, you're out of luck. The chance of precipitation is sitting at a flat 0% for the foreseeable future.
Actionable Tips for Today
- Plan outdoor activities for 1 PM: This is the sweet spot where the air is warm but the sun isn't at its absolute strongest.
- Check your tire pressure: These 30-degree temperature swings cause the air in your tires to expand and contract, often triggering that annoying "low pressure" light on your dashboard.
- Water your desert plants: If you have sensitive succulents, the 48°F low tonight is safe, but keep an eye out if forecasts ever dip toward that 32°F mark later in the month.
The bottom line? Enjoy the 75°F afternoon. It’s exactly why people pay the "sun tax" to live in Arizona while the rest of the country is shoveling snow.