You've probably spent the last twenty minutes refreshing your brokerage app or squinting at futures charts. It’s that familiar Sunday night itch. Everyone wants to know the same thing: What is the stock market going to do tomorrow? Honestly, tomorrow—Monday, January 19, 2026—is a bit of a curveball. If you’re trading in the U.S., the answer is actually nothing. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. No bells. No frantic candles. Just a quiet day for American equity traders to catch their breath.
But don't check out just yet.
While the "Big Board" takes a nap, the rest of the world is wide awake. Globex futures will still be ticking. International markets are open. And if you’ve been watching the macro weather lately, you know that a "closed" U.S. market doesn't mean the volatility has gone on vacation. In fact, Monday’s global data dump might just set the stage for a chaotic Tuesday morning.
The China GDP Factor and Global Ripples
While Americans are observing the holiday, China is dropping a massive set of data points that will ripple through every S&P 500 futures contract. We’re talking Q4 GDP, industrial production, and retail sales figures.
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The consensus? China's growth is expected to land around 4.5% to 4.6%. That's the lowest we’ve seen in a while. If those numbers miss, even by a hair, expect "risk-off" sentiment to dominate the overnight futures. You’ll see it first in the Australian dollar or the Hang Seng, but by the time you wake up for coffee on Monday, the S&P 500 E-mini futures will be telling the real story.
Basically, if China looks sluggish, the big multinational players like Apple or Nvidia—who rely heavily on that region—might see their pre-market quotes take a hit for Tuesday.
What Is The Stock Market Going To Do Tomorrow In The Futures Pit?
Since the cash market is closed, the "market" tomorrow is really just the futures pits. Stock futures usually trade on a shortened schedule during holidays, typically closing around 1:00 PM ET.
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- Watch the Spreads: Liquidity is thinner on holidays. This means moves can be exaggerated.
- The "TACO" Trade: Analysts are currently obsessed with the "TACO" trade (Tariffs, Apples, Corn, and Oil). With the new administration's policy shifts in full swing, any weekend headline about trade barriers will hit futures hard tomorrow.
- Yield Curve Jitters: Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury note. Yields have been hovering near 4.1%, and if they creep higher while the equity market is closed, Tuesday’s open could be a gap-down.
It’s sorta weird how much happens when nothing is "happening."
Earnings Season Is Creeping Up On Us
We just got through the first wave of bank earnings. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo already showed us that while higher interest rates are helping the bottom line, the "soft landing" everyone promised feels a little more like a bumpy tricycle ride.
What the market is going to do tomorrow—and more importantly, the day after—depends on how investors digest the bank commentary from last Friday. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley just wrapped up their reports, and the takeaway was clear: deal-making is back, but the consumer is starting to feel the pinch of 3% inflation that just won't die.
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Key Earnings to Watch Post-Holiday
- Logistics and Transports: Since we’re early in the year, watch for updates from the shipping giants. They are the canary in the coal mine for tariff impacts.
- Regional Banks: After the big boys report, the smaller regionals (like BOK Financial which just reported) give us a better look at local real estate and small business health.
The Big 2026 Picture: Why Tomorrow Is Just Noise
If you look at the LPL Financial or Vanguard outlooks for 2026, they’re calling for an S&P 500 target around 7,200 by year-end. That’s about a 6% gain from where we started. It’s "solid," but it’s not the moon-mission we saw in previous years.
The market is currently in a "prove it" phase.
Big Tech companies are expected to shell out over $500 billion in capital expenditures this year. Most of that is going into AI chips and data centers. Tomorrow, while you're not trading, professional desks will be calculating whether that $500 billion is actually going to turn into revenue. If the market starts to suspect that AI ROI (Return on Investment) is a myth, those record-high valuations are going to face a massive correction.
Actionable Steps for Monday’s "Day Off"
Instead of staring at a frozen screen, here is how you actually prepare for the Tuesday open:
- Check the China Data: Look for the GDP print at 10:00 PM ET Sunday night. If it’s below 4.4%, be cautious.
- Monitor the VIX: Even with the market closed, the "fear gauge" can give you a sense of how hedgers are positioning for the week. If it’s climbing above 18, expect a choppy Tuesday.
- Review Your Stops: Low-volume holiday futures can sometimes trigger "flash" moves. Make sure your stop-losses aren't so tight that a random 0.5% swing in thin liquidity knocks you out of a good position.
- Ignore the "Monday Morning Quarterbacks": You'll see plenty of pundits on Twitter (X) claiming they know exactly how the week will go. They don't. Stick to the data—specifically the PCE inflation updates coming later this month.
Tomorrow isn't about making trades. It's about observing the pressure gauges. When the opening bell rings on Tuesday morning, the market is going to react to everything that happened while we were supposedly "off." Stay sharp.