If you’re checking your portfolio this weekend, you’ve probably noticed things feel a little... unsettled. It’s Sunday, January 18, 2026, and while the physical trading floors in New York are quiet for the weekend, the conversation around what is the s&p 500 at today is anything but.
We just wrapped up a week that felt like a tug-of-war between two completely different realities. On one side, you have the "AI Supercycle" that just won't quit. On the other, there's a growing pile of political and geopolitical "what-ifs" that are starting to make investors genuinely twitchy.
The Friday Numbers: Where We Left Off
The market headed into the long weekend (remember, markets are closed tomorrow for Martin Luther King Jr. Day) on a bit of a soft note. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 6,940.01.
That’s a tiny slip—down about 0.06% on the day. Basically flat. But the "flat" headline hides a lot of drama under the hood. At one point on Friday, the index actually climbed toward its all-time high of 6,996, nearly touching that psychological 7,000 mark, before the air started leaking out of the balloon in the afternoon.
Honestly, 6,940 is still a massive number. If you look back exactly one year to when President Trump returned to the White House on January 20, 2025, the index is up roughly 16%. That’s well above the historical average for a president's first year back in office. But man, it’s been a bumpy 16%.
Why the Market is "Wobbling" Right Now
You’ve got to look at the Federal Reserve. It’s always the Fed, isn’t it?
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The big drama this week wasn't actually about earnings—it was about who is going to be running the show. There’s been a ton of back-and-forth about whether Kevin Hassett is actually going to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May. On Friday, rumors started swirling that Hassett might stay in his current advisor role instead. Suddenly, Kevin Warsh is back as the frontrunner in everyone's mind.
Why does that matter for your 401(k)? Because the market is desperate for rate cuts. Trump wants them. Investors want them. But the "higher for longer" ghost is still haunting the room. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.23% on Friday, the highest we've seen since September. When bond yields go up, stocks—especially tech stocks—usually feel the heat.
The Great AI Divide
If you want to know why the S&P 500 is stuck just below 7,000, you have to look at the "Software vs. Chips" war.
Semiconductors are still the kings. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) put out some monster numbers earlier in the week, and Micron (MU) saw a huge 5% jump on Friday because an insider bought $8 million worth of stock. People are still betting big that the AI data center build-out isn't anywhere near finished.
But software? That’s a different story.
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- Palantir (PLTR) and Workday (WDAY) have been taking hits.
- Investors are starting to worry that while the chip makers are getting rich building the AI, the software companies might actually get disrupted by it.
- There's a fear that "AI-native" startups are going to eat the lunch of the old-school software giants.
It’s creating this weird polarization. You have Nvidia and Micron carrying the index on their backs while other sectors are just... dragging.
Geopolitics and the "Greenland" Factor
It sounds like a plot from a satirical movie, but the market is genuinely trying to price in the geopolitical chaos of 2026. Between the ongoing tensions in Iran and the headlines about the U.S. interest in Greenland, there’s a lot of "noise" that makes it hard for the S&P 500 to maintain a steady upward trajectory.
Then you have the financial sector. Banks were looking good until Washington started talking about capping credit card interest rates. That sent a chill through companies like Capital One and JP Morgan. When you combine that with a cooling (but not quite "cold") labor market where unemployment is sitting at 4.4%, you get a market that doesn't know whether to celebrate or hide.
What to Watch When the Bell Rings Tuesday
When the markets reopen on January 20, the focus is going to shift immediately to fourth-quarter earnings. We’re right at the start of the season.
Morgan Stanley is out here predicting the S&P 500 could hit 7,800 by this time next year. That's a 14% gain from where we are now. Tom Lee over at Fundstrat is even more bullish, whispering about 7,700 sooner rather than later. But they're also warning that 2026 is a midterm election year. Historically, the second year of a presidential term is the weakest for stocks. We usually see an average correction of around 22% at some point during midterm years.
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So, is 6,940 a "buy the dip" moment or the start of a "midterm slump"?
Next Steps for Your Portfolio:
- Check your tech concentration. If your portfolio is 40% semiconductors, you’ve had a great run, but you're also riding a very volatile tiger. Consider if it's time to rebalance into defensive sectors like Health Care or Consumer Defensives, which have been quietly outperforming tech over the last two weeks.
- Watch the 6,885 level. Technical analysts are saying this is the "line in the sand." If the S&P 500 drops below 6,885 next week, we could see a quick slide down to 6,730.
- Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury. If that yield stays above 4.2%, expect the "Magnificent Seven" to stay under pressure.
- Ignore the weekend noise. Crypto is trading today, and it's looking okay, but don't let Sunday's Bitcoin price dictate how you feel about the S&P 500 on Tuesday morning.
The bottom line: The market is fundamentally strong but emotionally exhausted. We’re in a period of "digesting" the massive gains of 2025. Stay patient, keep your stop-losses in place, and don't get blinded by the 7,000 milestone. It's just a number, even if it's a big one.
Source Reference Note: Market data and closing prices as of January 16, 2026, provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Investing.com. Political and Fed analysis incorporates recent 2026 outlooks from Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan Global Research.