The stock market is acting like it has somewhere to be. If you’ve been checking your 401(k) lately, you’ve probably noticed the numbers look a little punchier than they did last summer. Everyone is asking the same question: What is the s&p 500 at right now and can this really keep going?
As of the market close on Friday, January 16, 2026, the S&P 500 sits at 6,940.01.
It’s tantalizingly close to that psychological 7,000 barrier. We’re basically standing on the porch, staring at the door, waiting for someone to let us in. The index dipped a tiny bit—about 0.06%—on Friday, but the vibe remains surprisingly resilient despite some weirdness with Treasury yields and the usual political drama in D.C.
The Weird Tug-of-War at 6,940
Honestly, the market feels like it’s holding its breath. We just finished the first full trading week of January 2026, and while the index is up roughly 1.2% since the ball dropped in Times Square, Friday was a bit of a slog.
Why the hesitation?
Treasury yields are acting up again. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.23% recently, which is the highest we’ve seen since last September. When yields go up, tech stocks usually get a headache because borrowing gets more expensive and those future earnings start to look a little less shiny.
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But then you have the "Taiwan Factor." A new $250 billion trade deal between the U.S. and Taiwan just got announced, promising massive investment in American chip production. That’s like pouring rocket fuel on companies like Nvidia and Micron.
- Nvidia (NVDA): Currently trading around $186.23.
- Apple (AAPL): Hovering at $255.53.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Sitting pretty at $459.86.
It’s a lopsided fight. On one hand, you have the "Magnificent Seven" (well, mostly the "Magnificent Six" since Tesla has been a bit moody) dragging the index higher. On the other, you have concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and whether Donald Trump will keep Kevin Hassett or pivot to Kevin Warsh for the Fed Chair spot.
Markets hate not knowing who’s holding the steering wheel.
Is 7,500 the New Normal?
If you talk to the folks at Oppenheimer or even some of the more aggressive analysts at FXStreet, they aren’t just looking at 7,000. They’re eyeballing 7,500 or even 8,100 by the end of the year.
That sounds nuts, right?
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Maybe not. The earnings power is actually there. FactSet is projecting a 15% growth in earnings for the S&P 500 this year. That would be the third straight year of double-digit growth. We haven't seen a streak like that in a long time.
What’s actually driving this?
- The AI Second Wave: We’re past the "hype" phase. Now, companies are actually installing the chips. Nvidia just announced their new "Rubin" chips at CES, and the order books are already reportedly north of $500 billion.
- Fiscal Stimulus: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (yes, that’s the actual name floating around for the latest stimulus/tax package) is expected to act as a massive tailwind for domestic industrials.
- The Fed’s "Slow Walk": Even though inflation is stubbornly sticking near 3%, most experts expect the Fed to cut rates maybe twice or three times this year just to keep the labor market from crumbling.
The Reality Check: What Most People Get Wrong
It’s easy to look at what is the s&p 500 at right now and assume it’s all sunshine. But the Shiller CAPE ratio—a fancy way of measuring if stocks are overpriced—is currently at levels we haven't seen since the dot-com bubble in 2000.
We are paying a lot for every dollar of profit these companies make.
Also, the index is incredibly top-heavy. The top 10 companies now make up over 40% of the entire index's value. If Apple has a bad day because of a supply chain glitch in Asia, the whole index feels it. It’s not a "diversified" basket in the way it used to be. It’s basically a tech ETF with some banks and oil companies tagged on for decoration.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
So, what do you actually do with this information? Watching the ticker move from 6,940 to 6,941 isn't a strategy.
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Watch the 7,000 level. If the S&P 500 breaks 7,000 and stays there for more than a few days, expect a lot of "FOMO" (fear of missing out) buying from retail investors. That usually creates a melt-up.
Look beyond the Mag Seven. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks have been left in the dust. If the "One Big Beautiful Bill" actually passes, companies in the S&P 400 (mid-caps) might actually have more room to run than the trillion-dollar giants.
Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury. If that yield crosses 4.5%, the stock market rally will likely hit a brick wall. High yields are the natural enemy of high stock prices.
Rebalance, seriously. If you haven't touched your portfolio in a year, you’re probably way over-exposed to tech. Taking some profits at 6,940 and moving them into boring stuff like healthcare or utilities isn't "timing the market"—it's being the only adult in the room.
The market is currently a high-stakes game of chicken between incredible corporate earnings and rising interest rates. 6,940 is a great number, but the road to 7,500 is going to be a lot bumpier than the last few months have been.
Stay skeptical. Stay invested. But mostly, stay awake.
To get a true sense of where your specific holdings sit against these benchmarks, log into your brokerage account and check your "Beta" coefficient. This number tells you if your personal portfolio is moving faster or slower than the S&P 500. If your Beta is over 1.5, you’re essentially strapped to a rocket ship—which is great until the engines cut out.