If you’ve driven through the Reserve Street crawl lately or tried to snag a table at the Iron Griz on a Saturday, you don’t need a spreadsheet to tell you things are getting crowded. But what is the population of missoula montana exactly in 2026?
Honestly, the numbers might surprise you. While everyone complains about the "California influx," the actual data shows a city that is growing steadily but perhaps not as explosively as the local rumor mill suggests.
As of early 2026, the city of Missoula sits at an estimated 80,103 residents.
That is a significant jump from the 73,489 people recorded during the 2020 Census. We aren't just talking about a few new faces at the Clark Fork Market. We’re talking about a city that has effectively added a small town's worth of people to its footprint in just over half a decade.
The Real Numbers: Breaking Down the 2026 Estimates
It’s easy to get confused by the different figures floating around. You’ll hear one person say 80,000 and another swear it’s over 125,000. They’re actually both right—sorta.
When people ask about the population, they usually mean one of three things:
- The City Proper: This is the 80,103 figure. These are the folks living within the official city limits, paying city taxes, and (mostly) voting on those local bond issues.
- The Urban Area: If you include places like Orchard Homes, East Missoula, and Lolo, you’re looking at a much more concentrated "hub" of roughly 90,000 people.
- Missoula County: This is the big one. The total county population has climbed to approximately 123,800 in 2026.
Essentially, Missoula is the second-largest city in the Treasure State. It still trails Billings by a wide margin, but it’s comfortably ahead of Great Falls and the rapidly accelerating Bozeman.
Why the Growth Rate is Tapering (Slightly)
Between 2020 and 2022, Montana was basically the "it" girl of the United States. Everyone wanted in. During those peak years, we saw growth rates that felt unsustainable.
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But things have changed.
The annual growth rate for Missoula has settled into a more "normal" groove of about 1.2% per year. Why the slowdown? It’s not that people stopped liking mountains or the University of Montana. It’s the math.
Housing prices here have become, frankly, a bit ridiculous. With median home values hovering near $550,000 and rent for a decent two-bedroom often topping $1,600, the "barrier to entry" is much higher than it was in 2019.
Who is Actually Moving Here?
The stereotype is a tech worker from Seattle or a retiree from the Bay Area. While there’s some truth to that, the 2026 demographics show a more nuanced picture.
The University of Montana remains the heartbeat of the city's population structure. With enrollment stabilizing and even showing modest gains in recent semesters, the "student surge" keeps the median age in Missoula around 34—significantly younger than the state average.
We are also seeing a shift in "Natural Increase" versus "Net Migration."
For the first time in a while, the growth is almost entirely driven by people moving in. The birth rate in Missoula County has stayed relatively flat, while the number of deaths has increased as the Baby Boomer population ages. This means if people stopped moving here tomorrow, the population would actually start to shrink.
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Diversity and Demographics
Missoula is slowly—very slowly—becoming more diverse.
- White (Non-Hispanic): ~84%
- Hispanic or Latino: ~6%
- Two or More Races: ~7%
- American Indian: ~2.5%
It’s a far cry from a major metropolitan hub, but compared to the Missoula of the 1990s, the needle is moving.
The "Bozeman Effect" on Missoula
You can't talk about Missoula's population without looking over the hill at Bozeman.
Bozeman is the fastest-growing "mid-sized" city in the state, and its explosion has actually acted as a pressure valve for Missoula. High-income earners looking for the "mountain lifestyle" often head to Gallatin County first.
However, Missoula is increasingly seen as the "value play."
Investors and remote workers who find Bozeman’s $800,000+ median home prices impossible are looking at Missoula and seeing a "bargain"—even if locals here feel like they’re being priced out. This "spillover" effect is a major reason why Missoula's population hasn't plateaued despite the rising costs.
Infrastructure: Can the City Handle This?
This is the question that keeps city planners up at night.
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Missoula is physically constrained. You have mountains on three sides and a river running through the middle. You can't just keep building "out" like they do in Billings or Boise.
This has led to the "Infill" strategy. You’ve likely noticed the new apartment complexes popping up in the Midtown district and near the Hip Strip. The city is trying to pack more of those 80,000+ people into the existing footprint.
Traffic and Transit
The mean travel time to work is still only about 17 minutes. That sounds great to someone from LA, but for a Missoulian who remembers when it took 5 minutes to get anywhere, it’s a sore spot.
Mountain Line (our bus system) remains zero-fare, which is a huge win for managing population growth. Without it, the congestion on Brooks and Reserve would likely be terminal.
What This Means for Your Wallet in 2026
If you’re living here or thinking about it, the population numbers translate directly into your cost of living.
- Rent Stability: Because so many multi-family units were greenlit in 2023 and 2024, the "rental crisis" has shifted from "can't find a place" to "can't afford the place I found." Vacancy rates have actually ticked up to about 5.5%, meaning you have more leverage as a renter than you did three years ago.
- The Job Market: More people means more demand for services. Healthcare (Providence St. Patrick and Community Medical Center) and Education remain the big employers, but the professional/tech sector is growing as the population brings its own jobs via remote work.
- Property Taxes: As your home value goes up due to population demand, so do your taxes. It's the double-edged sword of living in a "desirable" zip code.
Looking Ahead: Missoula in 2030
The forecasts suggest we’ll hit 85,000 within the city limits by 2030.
It’s a weird middle ground. We’re too big to be a "quiet mountain town" anymore, but we’re too small to have the amenities of a true city (still waiting on that Trader Joe's, right?).
The character of the city is changing. The "Keep Missoula Weird" vibe is competing with a "Keep Missoula Functional" reality.
Actionable Insights for Navigating Missoula's Growth:
- For Renters: Don't settle for the first "Luxury Apartment" you see. With the 2026 vacancy rates hovering around 5-6%, look for move-in specials or negotiate on parking fees. The market is more balanced than it was during the pandemic.
- For Homebuyers: Look toward the Northside or the developing Midtown area. These are the pockets where the city is funneling its "infill" infrastructure money, which usually bodes well for long-term equity.
- For Commuters: If you're working downtown, consider the "Riverfront Trail" system. As the population hits 80k, the trail is often faster (and definitely more scenic) than sitting in the Orange Street bridge traffic.
- For Business Owners: Focus on the "Silver Tsunami." With 15% of the population now over the age of 65, there is a massive, underserved market for mobile services, home care, and specialized retail that wasn't there ten years ago.