You've probably heard the stat a thousand times. It’s basically become a cultural "fact" that we all just accept without checking. Someone at a party or in a movie mentions that 50% of all marriages end in divorce, and everyone just nods. It sounds right, doesn't it? It feels like every other couple we know is calling it quits.
But honestly, that number is kinda stuck in the 1980s.
If you’re looking for the real answer to what is the percentage of divorce in the united states today, in 2026, you might be surprised to find out that the "coin flip" odds are largely a myth for most people. The landscape has shifted. We aren't living in the era of the "divorce revolution" anymore; we’re in an era of late-bloomer marriages and highly selective partnerships.
The current reality of divorce stats
Right now, if you look at the raw data coming from the CDC and the U.S. Census Bureau, the "crude" divorce rate is sitting around 2.4 to 2.5 per 1,000 people. That’s actually a record low. If you want to talk about "lifetime risk"—which is what most people mean when they ask about the percentage—current projections for first marriages are closer to 41%.
Still high? Sure. But it's a far cry from the "half of everyone" narrative that has dominated our brains for decades.
Wait. It gets more nuanced. That 41% is an average, and averages are sneaky. They hide the fact that divorce doesn't strike everyone equally. If you’ve graduated from college, for example, your risk drops significantly. If you waited until you were 25 or 30 to get hitched, the odds of your marriage lasting are way better than if you eloped at 19.
Why the 50% myth won't die
The 50% figure actually came from a projection made in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Back then, divorce rates were skyrocketing because "no-fault" divorce laws were sweeping the country. For the first time, people could leave unhappy or abusive marriages without having to prove "cruelty" or "adultery" in a courtroom. There was a huge backlog of people who wanted out, and they all left at once.
Researchers saw that spike and basically said, "If this keeps up, half of everyone will be divorced by 2000."
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But it didn't keep up. The rate peaked in 1980 and has been sliding down ever since. The reason we still hear "50%" is partly because it's a clean, scary number that makes for good headlines, and partly because we’re counting differently now.
First, second, and third-time "unlucky"
When we ask about the percentage of divorce, we usually think about a couple getting married for the first time. But the national average is dragged up by people who are on their second or third marriage.
Statistically, the more times you marry, the more likely you are to divorce. It’s a bit of a "selection effect." People who have already been through a divorce know the world doesn't end if a marriage fails. They might be less willing to stay in a mediocre situation.
Here is how the risk breaks down by marriage order:
- First Marriages: About 41% end in divorce.
- Second Marriages: Approximately 60% to 67% fail.
- Third Marriages: The risk jumps to a staggering 73%.
Basically, if you’re on your third try, you’re looking at a survival rate of only about 27%. That’s where the "50% average" really comes from—it’s an aggregate of the relatively stable first-timers and the much more volatile "frequent flyers."
The "Gray Divorce" explosion
While younger generations (Millennials and Gen Z) are actually driving the divorce rate down, there is one group where the numbers are going the opposite direction.
Gray divorce.
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This refers to couples over the age of 50 who are splitting up after 20, 30, or even 40 years of marriage. Since 1990, the divorce rate for people over 50 has roughly doubled. For those over 65, it has tripled.
Why? People are living longer. If you’re 65 and you realize you have 25 more years of life left, you might not want to spend them with someone you’ve "grown apart" from. The kids are gone, the "nest" is empty, and the social stigma of being a divorcee is basically non-existent now.
What actually predicts a split?
If you're worried about your own odds, you should know that certain factors act like "shields" against divorce. It’s not just random luck.
Education and Money
There is a massive "marriage gap" in the U.S. based on socioeconomics. College-educated women have a much lower divorce rate—around 16% in some cohorts—compared to those with only a high school diploma. Why? Money. Financial stress is one of the biggest killers of romance. When you can’t pay the rent, you’re probably not focused on "active listening" or "date nights."
Age at the Altar
Getting married young is one of the biggest risk factors. According to recent data, if you wait until age 25 to get married, you reduce your risk of divorce by 50% compared to marrying at age 20. Your brain isn't even fully formed until your mid-20s, and your "identity" changes a lot in those years.
The "Incompatibility" Factor
Interestingly, a Forbes Advisor survey found that "lack of family support" was a leading factor in 43% of divorces. It's not always about cheating. In fact, "incompatibility" and "too much conflict" are cited way more often than infidelity these days.
The State-by-State divide
Where you live also seems to matter, though it's likely more about the culture and laws of the state than the actual geography.
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- High Divorce States: Nevada (thanks, Vegas!), Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Alabama. These states often have younger-than-average marriage ages and lower average incomes.
- Low Divorce States: Massachusetts, Illinois, and Hawaii. These areas tend to have more people who delay marriage until they are older and more financially established.
Arkansas currently holds one of the highest rates at about 23.27 divorces per 1,000 married women. Meanwhile, Vermont and New Jersey are consistently at the bottom of the list.
Actionable insights: How to be the 59%
If you want to stay in the majority—the group that stays married—the data actually gives us some pretty clear clues on how to do that. It’s not just about "finding the one"; it’s about timing and preparation.
1. Wait it out.
Don't rush the "I do." The data is crystal clear: waiting until your late 20s or early 30s significantly stabilizes the relationship. You know who you are by then.
2. Talk about the "un-sexy" stuff early.
Since financial stress and incompatibility are top killers, you've gotta get into the weeds before the wedding. Debt, kids, career goals, and how you handle chores. If you can’t agree on who does the dishes or how much to save for a house, those small cracks become canyons over ten years.
3. Recognize the "7-year itch" is real (kinda).
The median length for a first marriage that ends in divorce is about 8 years. There’s a reason for that. The honeymoon chemicals are long gone, and the "daily grind" of life has set in. Knowing that this dip is normal can help you work through it instead of assuming the marriage is "broken."
4. Invest in your own stability.
Finish your education, get your career on track, and learn how to manage your own emotions. Marriages between two "whole" people tend to last much longer than those where one person is looking for the other to "complete" them or save them from their problems.
So, is the U.S. divorce rate 50%?
No. Not even close for most people. If you’re educated, marry later, and communicate well, your odds of staying together are actually quite high—somewhere in the 70-85% range. The "percentage of divorce" is a moving target, and for the first time in decades, it's moving in a direction that suggests marriage is becoming more stable, even if it's becoming less common.
Next Steps for You
- If you're currently married and feeling the strain, look into proactive marriage counseling before a crisis hits; data shows couples who seek help early are far more likely to stay together.
- For those considering marriage, use pre-marital financial planning to align on debt and spending habits, addressing the #1 source of marital conflict.
- Check your state's specific divorce and marriage laws to understand how "no-fault" or "equitable distribution" might affect your legal standing.