You’ve heard the number. It’s basically a cultural ghost story at this point: 50%. The idea that half of all marriages are destined for a lawyer's office has been repeated so often it feels like a law of physics. But if you’re looking at the actual 2026 data, that old stat is kinda… wrong.
Honestly, the "50% rule" is a relic of the 1980s. Back then, divorce rates peaked as "no-fault" laws swept the nation. Today? Things look different. The divorce rate in the US has been on a slow, steady slide downward for years.
According to the latest snapshots from the CDC and the National Center for Family & Marriage Research (NCFMR) at Bowling Green State University, the crude divorce rate is hovering around 2.4 to 2.5 per 1,000 people. If you look at the "refined" rate—which only counts married women to get a more accurate "at-risk" picture—it’s down to about 14.2 per 1,000. That is a massive drop from the 1980 peak of 22.6.
So, why does everyone still think it’s a coin flip?
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What is the Divorce Rate in the US Today?
It’s complicated because "the rate" isn't just one number. If you’re a 25-year-old getting married for the first time in 2026, your risk is nowhere near 50%. But if you’re on your third marriage or you’re a "Gray Divorcee" over 65, the math gets significantly grimmer.
Here is the real breakdown of what’s happening right now:
- First Marriages: About 35% to 41% end in divorce. Still high, sure, but not "half."
- Second Marriages: This is where the risk jumps. Roughly 60% of these don’t make it.
- Third Marriages: The failure rate here is a staggering 73%.
Basically, the more times you try, the more likely you are to visit a mediator. It turns out that whatever "baggage" or conflict patterns we carry from the first go-around often follow us into the next one. Plus, once you’ve survived one divorce, the "taboo" is gone. You know you’ll survive the next one, too.
The Age Factor
Millennials and Gen Z are actually the ones "saving" the institution of marriage, mostly by being terrified of it. People are waiting much longer to tie the knot. The median age for a first marriage is now nearly 30 for men and 29 for women.
When you marry older, you’re usually more financially stable and—let’s be real—you actually know who you are. This "selectivity" means the marriages that do happen are just more durable. We’re seeing the highest divorce rates among adults aged 25 to 39, but even that group is splitting up less often than their parents did at that age.
The "Gray Divorce" Explosion
While younger people are staying together, the 65+ crowd is doing the opposite. Divorce rates for seniors have nearly tripled since the 90s.
Why? People are living longer. If you’re 65 and you realize you have 25 healthy years left, you might not want to spend them with someone you’ve "grown apart" from over forty years. The kids are gone. The house is paid off. The "sunk cost" doesn't feel worth the daily friction anymore.
Why the Numbers are Dropping
It isn't just that people are "happier." It’s that the people getting married are a different demographic than they used to be. Marriage is becoming what sociologists call an "elite status."
Education is the big predictor.
If you have a college degree, your chance of staying married for 20 years is significantly higher than someone with a high school diploma. It’s not that the diploma has magical powers; it’s that it usually leads to higher income. And money is the #1 thing couples fight about.
When you don't have to worry about the rent, you have more emotional bandwidth to worry about "connection" and "communication."
The Cohabitation Shift
Most people live together before marriage now. In the past, this was seen as a risk factor for divorce. Today, it’s basically a filter. Couples who aren't a good match break up before they spend $30,000 on a wedding. By the time they say "I do," they’ve already navigated the "who does the dishes" phase of the relationship.
Real-World Drivers of Splits in 2026
If you talk to a family lawyer like those at Marble Law or various state-level practitioners, they’ll tell you the "reasons" haven't changed much, but the tools have.
- Digital Paper Trails: In 2026, hiding assets is almost impossible. Everything from Venmo transactions to crypto wallets leaves a trail.
- Infidelity: It remains a top reason, but now it’s "digital infidelity"—emotional affairs started on social media.
- Financial Stress: Even with the national rate down, inflation and housing costs put a massive strain on low-to-middle-income couples.
- The "Stay-at-Home" Shift: Interestingly, we're seeing more filings from stay-at-home spouses who cite a "lack of intimacy" or "emotional abandonment" rather than some big, explosive fight.
Regional Weirdness
Where you live matters too. Nevada still leads the pack with a high divorce rate, mostly because it’s so easy to get one there. On the flip side, states like Massachusetts and Hawaii consistently have the lowest rates. This usually tracks with the local "marriage age"—people in the Northeast and West Coast wait longer to marry, so they stay married longer.
What This Means for You
If you’re worried about becoming a statistic, the data actually offers some pretty clear "hacks" for a lasting marriage.
Wait until you're 25. Statistics show that marrying before 25 is a massive risk factor. Your brain is barely done developing. Get your finances in order. You don't need to be rich, but being on the same page about debt and spending is non-negotiable. Try premarital counseling. It’s not just for religious people anymore; "mental health literacy" is a huge trend in 2026 for a reason.
The divorce rate in the US isn't a death sentence for your relationship. It’s a reflection of a society that is becoming more intentional about who they marry and when. We are moving toward a world where marriage is rarer, but the marriages that exist are arguably stronger than they were forty years ago.
Actionable Next Steps
- Audit your "Money Language": Sit down with your partner and discuss your debt-to-income ratio and retirement goals. Financial surprises are the fastest track to a filing.
- Check the Age Gap: If you are marrying young (under 23), consider a longer engagement to let your individual identities solidify.
- Look at the "Gray" Trends: If you're an empty-nester, prioritize "re-acquainting" with your spouse to avoid the drift that leads to late-life splits.
- Draft a "Social Media Policy": It sounds clinical, but agreeing on what constitutes "digital boundaries" can prevent the emotional affairs that now dominate divorce filings.