If you’re trying to figure out what is happening in Nigeria today, you’re probably getting two very different stories. On one hand, the government is shouting from the rooftops about "economic consolidation" and stabilization. On the other, if you walk into a market in Mushin or Sabon Gari, people are still clutching their wallets like they’re under siege. It’s a weird, tense middle ground.
Today is Saturday, January 17, 2026. Right now, Vice President Kashim Shettima is actually in Conakry, Guinea. He’s representing President Bola Tinubu at the inauguration of Mamady Doumbouya. It’s a big "leadership" flex for Nigeria in the ECOWAS region, basically trying to show that the "big brother" of Africa is back in the driver’s seat of regional diplomacy.
But back home? Things are a bit more complicated.
The "New" Economy: Growth or Just Better Math?
There is a huge debate raging right now about Nigeria's inflation numbers. You might have seen the headlines: inflation "dipped" to 15.15%. On paper, that sounds like a miracle compared to the 30%+ nightmares of 2024. But here’s the catch—the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just rebased the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Basically, they changed the ruler they use to measure the height of the problem.
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- The Technical Switch: The NBS moved the base year to 2024.
- The Reality Gap: While Finance Minister Wale Edun says we’ve moved from "crisis management" to "consolidation," the average Nigerian still feels the sting of the 2023 subsidy removal.
- The Forecast: The Central Bank (CBN) is projecting petrol could hit ₦950 per litre this year, even with the Dangote Refinery acting as a buffer.
Honestly, the "stability" everyone is talking about feels fragile. The Naira is currently hovering around ₦1,420 to the dollar. It’s better than the freefall we saw a year ago, but "stable" at a very high cost of living.
Security and the "Silent" Unrest
You won't always see this on the front pages, but there’s a lot of spiritual and physical seeking for peace happening right now. Just yesterday, the Sokoto State Government held massive special prayers at the Sultan Bello Jumu’at Mosque. They weren't just praying for rain; they were praying for the "stability and unity" of the country.
Why? Because security remains a thorn in the side of this administration. While the military has reported killing several bandit kingpins in Zamfara and Sokoto recently, the threat hasn't vanished. In fact, just today, news broke about 12 arrests in Nasarawa following a successful rescue of seven hostages.
It’s a constant tug-of-war. The government claims they are winning, and in some areas like Cross River—where about 80 militants just laid down their arms for amnesty—there are signs of progress. But then you have the international lens, like recent reports from groups like ACLED, pointing out that Nigeria is still a primary target for extremist groups.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the Reforms
There’s this idea that Nigeria is just "suffering." That’s too simple. What is happening in Nigeria today is a fundamental rewiring of how the country works.
For decades, Nigeria lived on "rent"—oil money that trickled down (or stayed at the top). Tinubu’s tax reform bills, which are currently the talk of the town, are trying to change that. The goal is to move away from oil and toward a system where the government actually collects taxes efficiently.
It’s a massive gamble. The IMF has warned that Nigeria risks "fiscal unsustainability" if this doesn't work. We are currently spending over 60% of federal revenue just to service debt. Think about that. More than half of the money coming in goes to paying back old loans rather than building new roads.
The Davos Move: Selling the "New" Nigeria
Starting Monday, January 19, Nigeria is setting up "Nigeria House" in Davos for the World Economic Forum. This is the first time the country is taking such a dedicated space on the Davos Promenade.
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They are trying to sell a specific narrative:
- Investment Readiness: Pushing the 4.68% GDP growth target for 2026.
- The Energy Pivot: Highlighting the Dangote Refinery and a shift toward gas.
- The Tech Scene: Leveraging the "Gen-Z" digital economy that has continued to thrive despite the macro headaches.
Is the "Renewed Hope" Agenda Working?
If you ask a tech founder in Yaba, they might point to the $720 million in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) that surged in late 2025 as a sign of life. If you ask a civil servant, they’ll show you a bank statement that doesn't go nearly as far as it used to.
The "Consolidation Phase" Wale Edun talks about is real in the sense that the wild volatility of 2024 has calmed down. We aren't seeing 10% currency drops in a single day anymore. But the floor is much lower than it was.
Actionable Insights for Navigating Nigeria Right Now
If you are living in Nigeria or looking to invest, "waiting for things to get back to normal" is a losing strategy. The "normal" of 2022 is never coming back.
- Hedge Against Energy Costs: With the CBN predicting ₦950/litre for fuel, businesses that haven't shifted to solar or gas-powered solutions are going to see their margins evaporate.
- Watch the Tax Laws: The new tax harmonization bills aren't just for big corporations. They will affect SMEs and digital creators. Staying compliant is going to be cheaper than catching a "special audit" later.
- Diversify Income: The Naira's "stability" at ₦1,420 still means your purchasing power is tied to a currency that is sensitive to global oil prices. Earning in USD or holding assets in stablecoins (where legal) remains the primary survival tactic for the middle class.
- Monitor Local Security Reports: Don't just rely on national news. Local trackers and community reports in states like Kaduna, Katsina, and Sokoto are much more accurate for daily travel safety.
The story of Nigeria today isn't one of total collapse or total triumph. It’s a story of a country trying to stop being a "petro-state" while its citizens pay the very high price of that transition.
Stay informed on the specific legislative changes regarding the 2026 Tax Reform Bill, as the implementation dates for new VAT rates will likely be announced before the end of Q1.