If you feel like the world changed overnight last year, you’re not alone. Honestly, it kind of did. Since January 20, 2025, the U.S. has been moving at a breakneck speed that’s left plenty of people reaching for the Dramamine. It’s a lot to process. Between the sweeping tariffs, the "Liberation Day" executive orders, and a total 180 on energy, the question of what is going to happen now that Trump is president isn't just a hypothetical anymore. We are living it.
And it’s complicated.
One day we’re talking about record-breaking customs revenue, and the next, we’re watching a historic government shutdown end just in time for the 2026 fiscal year. It’s a high-stakes balancing act. To understand where we are right now—and where we’re headed—you have to look past the social media noise and at the actual policy shifts that have redefined the American landscape over the last twelve months.
The Tariff Shockwave and Your Wallet
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: the "reciprocal" tariffs. On April 2, 2025, a date the administration dubbed "Liberation Day," the trade world got turned upside down. Using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the President imposed a baseline 10% tariff on almost every country. But that was just the floor.
For some countries, it went way higher. We’re talking 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, and a staggering 145% total for some Chinese imports after all the different layers were stacked on.
What does this mean for you at the grocery store or when you're buying a new car?
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Basically, it’s a mixed bag. The Tax Foundation estimates these tariffs have added about $1,100 in costs for the average household in 2025. That number is projected to hit $1,500 in 2026. You’ve probably noticed the price of copper-heavy items or specific electronics creeping up. Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that roughly 40% of these costs are being swallowed by U.S. consumers, another 40% by businesses, and the rest by foreign exporters.
But there is a flip side the administration is banking on.
Customs duties brought in $264 billion for the federal government in 2025. That’s a massive jump from the $100 billion seen in 2024. The goal is to use this "new" money to potentially fund dividend checks for lower-income Americans or even offset income taxes for people making under $200,000. It’s an ambitious, "big swings only" approach to the economy. Whether it actually balances out the rising cost of living is the $2 trillion question.
The Immigration Overhaul: Mass Deportations in Practice
One of the most intense shifts has been in how the U.S. handles its borders and the people already here. Since the start of the second term, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) hasn't just talked about enforcement—they’ve industrialized it.
The numbers are pretty jarring. By December 2025, DHS reported that over 2.5 million people had left the country. That includes about 605,000 formal deportations and a massive 1.9 million "self-deportations."
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How did that happen?
It’s a combination of aggressive ICE raids, even in sanctuary cities, and a program that sounds like something out of a tech startup: the CBP Home app. It offered free flights and $1,000 to those who chose to leave voluntarily. It worked for many, but the human cost has been high. Reports from groups like the American Immigration Council highlight a detention system that is expanding to a scale we've never seen, rivaling the entire federal prison system.
The administration also invoked the Alien Enemies Act to speed things up, though that’s been tied up in the courts. We're seeing the "mass" in mass deportation, and it’s hitting industries like agriculture and construction particularly hard as the labor pool shifts.
Drill, Baby, Drill is the Law of the Land
If you work in energy or just care about your power bill, the change has been seismic. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) passed in July 2025, and it basically opened the floodgates for fossil fuels.
Here is what actually happened:
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- The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) now has a "28-day rule." They have to process drilling permits in less than a month.
- Environmental reviews that used to take years are being squeezed into weeks.
- Massive lease sales were held in New Mexico, Wyoming, and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).
But it isn’t just oil. There’s a weirdly strong push for nuclear too. The Energy Department is moving to quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050, putting $800 million toward small modular reactors and restarting old plants in Pennsylvania. The focus has shifted from "green" to "reliable and cheap." They even clawed back $13 billion in unspent funds from the previous administration’s climate programs.
What Most People Get Wrong About Foreign Policy
People expected isolationism, but what we got was "Transactional Intervention."
Trump didn't pull out of the world; he just changed the terms. In June 2025, the U.S. conducted its first large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in decades. It was a massive escalation that could have started a war, but instead, it led to a weird, tense standoff where Iran actually moved toward more cooperation with nuclear inspectors.
In Ukraine, the "Easter Ceasefire" didn't solve everything, but it shifted the conversation from "victory" to "Black Sea shipping lanes and energy infrastructure." The U.S. is acting more like a broker than a primary backer now. Oh, and the Greenland thing? Yeah, it’s back on the table. The administration is genuinely looking into "acquisition options" again, treating it as a national security necessity.
What is going to happen now that Trump is president in 2026?
As we look at the year ahead, the "honeymoon" phase of the second term is over, and the friction is starting to show. We’re likely to see a definitive Supreme Court ruling on the "Learning Resources v. Trump" case, which will decide if the President actually has the legal power to impose those worldwide tariffs. If he loses, the economy could see a massive, chaotic reset.
You should also keep an eye on:
- The "Dividend" Fight: The White House wants to send out those tariff-funded checks, but Congress is bickering over the math.
- The Labor Gap: If the deportation numbers keep rising, expect costs in service industries to jump as businesses struggle to find workers.
- Energy Prices: With the OBBBA in full swing, domestic production is up, which might finally start cooling down those stubbornly high utility bills.
Actionable Steps for Navigating 2026
- Audit your supply chain: if you run a business, you can't assume your costs will stay stable. The 10% baseline tariff is the new normal; plan for 15% to be safe.
- Watch the Supreme Court: The ruling on IEEPA authority (likely this spring) will be the single biggest economic event of the year.
- Diversify energy sources: If you're a homeowner, look into local incentives. Even though the federal "Green New Scam" funds were cut, many state-level programs are actually expanding to fill the gap.
- Prepare for volatility: With a $1.7 trillion deficit projected for 2026, interest rates are likely to stay "higher for longer." Refinancing might be off the table for a while.
The "New American Order" isn't a theory anymore. It's a series of executive orders, tax shifts, and border policies that are already in motion. Staying informed means looking at the data, not just the headlines.