If you woke up today and felt like the ground beneath your feet was shifting, you aren't alone. Honestly, keeping up with the news lately feels like trying to drink from a fire hose that’s also on fire.
Between the sudden U.S. military action in South America, a bizarre territorial dispute over Greenland, and AI finally beating the world’s best human predictors, the vibe of 2026 is, well, chaotic. It’s a lot to process. But when you look at what is going on in the world right now, there's actually a weirdly consistent thread of "out with the old, in with the unpredictable."
The structures we used to rely on—like NATO being a stable family or the U.S. staying out of its neighbors' capitals—are being rewritten in real-time.
The Venezuela Extraction and the New Oil Order
The biggest shocker so far this year happened just a couple of weeks ago. On January 3, 2026, the U.S. military launched "Operation Absolute Resolve" in Caracas. They didn't just go in for show; they actually captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
President Trump, now in the second year of his second term, announced it from Mar-a-Lago alongside his "Secretary of War" Pete Hegseth. (Yeah, the Department of Defense got a name change back to its original 1940s title).
The U.S. is currently overseeing Venezuela until a "safe transition" can happen. But let's be real—the driving force here is oil. With the U.S. effectively controlling Venezuelan reserves, global energy markets are in a tailspin. We’re seeing a massive blockade by the U.S. fleet, and while some people are cheering for "regime change," the humanitarian situation on the ground is still a mess. One in four Venezuelans still needs basic aid. It’s a gamble that has left the rest of the world—especially China and Russia—absolutely fuming.
Why Greenland is Suddenly the Center of the Universe
You might remember the "buy Greenland" thing from years ago as a meme. It’s not a joke anymore. Right now, President Trump is threatening to slap massive tariffs on the UK, France, and Denmark until they agree to "hand over" Greenland.
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It sounds wild. It is wild.
But it’s created a genuine fracture in NATO. In the last 24 hours, the rhetoric has reached a fever pitch. Senator Mark Warner recently pointed out that the only actual security threat to Greenland right now is... us. The Danes are "flipping out," which is understandable when your longest ally starts talking about annexing your territory.
European countries aren't just taking it lying down, either. France, Germany, and Norway have actually sent small groups of troops to Greenland. It’s a "tripwire" force—a signal that if the U.S. tries anything, they’d be attacking fellow NATO members. Meanwhile, Canada just signed a massive trade deal with China. Basically, the "West" is currently having a massive identity crisis.
AI is Officially Smarter at Predicting the Future Than You
While the politicians are fighting over borders, something quieter but arguably more profound is happening in the world of technology. For years, "superforecasters"—people who are freakishly good at predicting geopolitical events—were the gold standard.
Not anymore.
As of January 18, 2026, the gap between AI and human intuition has basically closed. New data shows that Large Language Models (LLMs) are now more accurate than 99% of humans at predicting market moves and election outcomes. On platforms like Polymarket and Metaculus, traders are betting heavily that AI will achieve "Forecasting Parity" before the year is out.
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The machines are now scoring better on Brier scores (the way we measure accuracy) than your average political scientist. It’s changing how hedge funds move money and how governments plan for crises. If a computer can tell you with 80% certainty that a war will start next Tuesday, do you even bother with diplomacy?
The 80th Anniversary of the UN and the "Spirit of Dialogue"
Yesterday, January 17, marked the 80th anniversary of the UN General Assembly. Secretary-General António Guterres gave a speech in London that felt more like a warning than a celebration. He talked about "national sovereignty being used as a pretext to undermine human rights."
He’s not just being dramatic.
The world is currently watching a landmark genocide case against Myanmar at the International Court of Justice. Aung San Suu Kyi, who spent years defending the generals, is now jailed by them. It's a mess of irony and tragedy.
At the same time, the High Seas Treaty officially came into force this weekend. It’s the first-ever legal framework to protect biodiversity in the two-thirds of the ocean that no country owns. It’s a rare win for global cooperation in a year that feels like it’s mostly about "America First" and regional bullying.
Climate Chaos vs. the Nuclear AI Surge
2025 was officially one of the hottest years ever recorded. We’re currently seeing wildfires in Australia destroy hundreds of homes, while Patagonia is burning through 12,000 hectares of forest.
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But here’s the twist: the AI boom is actually forcing a pivot back to nuclear energy.
Running these massive AI models takes an insane amount of power. A medium-sized data center now uses as much electricity as 100,000 homes. Tech giants like Google and Meta are realizing that wind and solar can’t keep the lights on for 24/7 processing. So, they’re pushing for a "nuclear renaissance." In Davos this week, the big topic isn't just trade—it's how to build enough small modular reactors to keep the AI from crashing the global power grid.
What You Can Actually Do With This Information
It’s easy to feel helpless when the news cycle is this aggressive. But understanding what is going on in the world right now gives you a few practical levers to pull for your own life:
- Diversify your energy exposure: With the U.S. move on Venezuela, oil prices might be volatile, but the push for nuclear-backed AI means tech and energy sectors are merging in ways we’ve never seen. Look at "AI-integrated energy" as the new growth sector.
- Trust the data, but watch the "Black Swans": Since AI is now outperforming human forecasters, use data-driven prediction markets (like Metaculus) to get a clearer picture of where the economy is going rather than just following cable news pundits.
- Prepare for "Deglobalization": The rift between the U.S. and its NATO allies, plus Canada’s pivot to China, means the era of cheap, frictionless global trade is fading. If you’re a business owner, look at "friend-shoring" or localizing your supply chain now.
- Monitor the Greenland-Tariff fallout: If you're in the UK or EU, be ready for potential price hikes on U.S. goods if these "Greenland tariffs" actually go through.
The world in 2026 is moving at "warp speed," as Guterres put it. The old rules don't apply, but the new ones are being written by whoever has the most computing power and the most oil.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Review your investment portfolio for exposure to "traditional" NATO-aligned markets versus the emerging China-Canada-Global South trade bloc.
- Monitor the World Economic Forum in Davos (starting tomorrow, Jan 19) for specific announcements regarding AI-nuclear energy partnerships, which will likely drive tech stocks for the next quarter.
- Track the "NATO Unity Protection Act" in the U.S. Senate. If it fails to pass, expect further volatility in European currency markets as the Greenland dispute escalates.