If you’ve been staring at your portfolio today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, and wondering why the numbers aren't moving, take a breath. The markets are closed for the weekend. But don't let the quiet fool you. The atmosphere leading into this week is anything but calm. Honestly, the tension is thick enough to cut with a knife as traders prepare for a massive flood of earnings reports and some pretty spicy geopolitical headlines.
What has the stock market done today and where did we leave off?
Since today is a Sunday, we have to look back at Friday’s close to see the starting blocks for tomorrow morning. It wasn't exactly a victory lap. The major indices basically limped across the finish line after a week that felt like a tug-of-war between AI optimism and "Trump-nomics" uncertainty.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped about 83 points on Friday, settling at 49,359.30. It’s sitting right on the edge of that psychological 50,000 mark, but it just couldn't find the fuel to crest the hill. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were almost perfectly flat, with the S&P closing at 6,940.01 and the Nasdaq ending at 23,515.40.
A Quick Look at the Closing Numbers (Jan 16, 2026)
- Dow Jones: 49,359.30 (-0.17%)
- S&P 500: 6,940.01 (-0.06%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,515.40 (-0.06%)
- Russell 2000: 2,677.74 (+0.12%)
The small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 were actually the "winners" of the day, proving that investors are still hunting for value outside of the giant tech behemoths. But why the hesitation? Well, a lot of it comes down to a name you’re going to hear a lot this week: Kevin Warsh.
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The Fed Chair Drama and the "Warsh Effect"
Lately, the market has been obsessed with who is going to lead the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell’s term is winding down, and President Trump has been dropping hints like breadcrumbs. On Friday, the mood shifted when Trump signaled he might keep Kevin Hassett in his current advisory role instead of moving him to the Fed.
This immediately sent expectations soaring for Kevin Warsh to take the top spot. Warsh is known for being a bit more "hawkish" or aggressive on certain policies, and the market is still trying to figure out if that’s a good thing for interest rates. When uncertainty about the world’s most powerful central bank hits, investors tend to hit the "pause" button. That’s essentially what we saw on Friday and what’s lingering in the air today.
Earnings Season Is About to Get Real
If last week was the appetizer, this coming week is a twelve-course meal. We are heading into an earnings-heavy stretch with over 230 companies scheduled to report their Q3 results (for the October-December 2025 period).
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We’ve already seen some mixed signals. Wells Fargo took a 4.6% hit recently after reporting weaker profit, and Bank of America slipped nearly 4%. On the flip side, the tech world is still riding the AI wave. Even though folks are worried about overvaluation, companies like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) continue to be the spine of the market. TSMC recently reported revenue that blew past expectations, which is usually a sign that the AI hunger hasn't been satisfied yet.
Keep an eye on Walmart too. They just got tapped to join the Nasdaq 100, and with their new Google-powered AI shopping features, they’re trying to prove they aren't just a "brick and mortar" relic. They climbed 3% on the news, which is a big move for a giant like that.
Geopolitics: Greenland, Iran, and Tariffs
You can't talk about what has the stock market done today without looking at the global map. It’s getting crowded out there.
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- The Iran Tension: The U.S. military is currently moving more "defensive and offensive capabilities" into the Middle East. The USS Abraham Lincoln is reportedly making its way that way. Markets hate the smell of jet fuel and uncertainty, especially when it concerns oil-producing regions.
- The Greenland Factor: Yes, we are still talking about Greenland. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet with Danish leaders soon. It sounds like something out of a political thriller, but it has real implications for NATO relations and European market stability.
- Tariffs: The Supreme Court is expected to weigh in on the legality of some of the administration’s newer tariffs. If the ruling goes one way, it could mean higher costs for retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch, which already saw its stock tank 17.7% recently due to weak profit forecasts.
The "Trump Accounts" and New Investors
There is one weirdly positive thing happening in the background. The new "Trump Accounts" program—which gives a $1,000 government seed to kids born between 2025 and 2028—has actually sparked a lot of conversation about long-term investing. Financial advisors are seeing a surge in families asking about compounding. While it doesn't move the S&P 500 index on a daily basis, it’s creating a new floor of retail interest that hasn't been there before.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Market
Most people think that if the Nasdaq is down, the whole market is failing. Sorta. But look at what happened this past week: while tech giants like Nvidia and Broadcom were dragging their feet, defense contractors were soaring.
Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin have been on a tear because the administration is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027. It’s a "rotation." Money isn't necessarily leaving the market; it’s just moving from the Silicon Valley chips into the Maryland steel. If you only look at the "Magnificent 7," you're missing half the story.
Actionable Steps for the Week Ahead
The market is in a "wait and see" mode today, but you shouldn't be. Here is how to handle the opening bell tomorrow:
- Check the 10-Year Treasury Yield: It’s hovering around 4.18%. If this starts creeping toward 4.25% on Monday, expect tech stocks to feel the heat. High yields are like kryptonite for growth stocks.
- Watch the "Value" Rotation: Keep an eye on the Russell 2000. If small caps continue to outperform the Dow, it’s a sign that the "Trump-nomics" trade (betting on domestic, smaller U.S. companies) is still the dominant play.
- Earnings Calendar: Set alerts for the big bank reports early in the week. They are the "canary in the coal mine" for consumer spending. If people are still swiping their credit cards despite 2025's inflation, the "soft landing" dream is still alive.
- Don't Panic on Geopolitical Headlines: Rumors of strikes or tariff spikes often cause "gap downs" at the open that get bought up by the afternoon. Unless there is a literal declaration of war, the market's memory for headlines is usually about 48 hours.
The bottom line? The stock market has spent today catching its breath. Tomorrow, it starts sprinting again.