If you’ve been scrolling through Truth Social or catching the latest clips from the Detroit Economic Club lately, you’ve probably noticed a recurring theme. Donald Trump is talking about the stock market. A lot.
Honestly, it feels like 2017 all over again. The superlatives are back. The "greatest turnaround in history" claims are flying. But in 2026, the stakes feel a bit different. The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs, yet the air feels thin. Investors are trying to figure out if the "Trump Boom" he keeps touting is a structural shift or just a massive sugar high fueled by tax extensions and aggressive pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Trump’s Recent Stance on the 2026 Market Surge
Basically, the President is taking a victory lap. In recent remarks, Trump has been vocal about the "Trump economic boom" being officially underway. He points to the S&P 500’s rally—which surged nearly 40% from its April 2025 lows—as absolute proof that his "America First" 2.0 agenda is working.
He isn't just taking credit for the gains; he’s using the market as a scoreboard. To Trump, a rising Dow is a direct validation of his "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which extended those 2017 tax cuts that Wall Street loves so much. He’s been telling anyone who will listen that if the "other side" were in charge, the market would be in a "Great Depression-style" collapse.
But there’s a catch. While he’s cheering on the big tech names like Nvidia and Apple, he’s simultaneously picking fights with the very institutions that keep the gears turning.
The Battle with the Fed and the 10% Cap
You've gotta look at the friction with Jerome Powell to understand what Trump really thinks about the market's future. Trump has been incredibly critical of the Federal Reserve’s pace. Even as the Fed cut rates by 0.75% at the end of 2025, it wasn't enough for him.
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He wants more. He wants fast.
His latest move has actually sent some sectors into a tailspin. Just last week, Trump proposed a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, effective January 20, 2026.
The market reaction? Brutal for banks.
- Capital One dropped over 8%.
- American Express slid 5%.
- JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup both saw significant red ink.
Trump says this is about "affordability" and stopping companies from "ripping off" the public. But Wall Street sees it as a direct hit to bank profitability. It’s a classic Trump contradiction: he wants the overall market to soar, but he’s willing to bash specific sectors if he thinks it plays well with his base.
Tariffs: The "April 2nd" Ghost
One thing most people get wrong is thinking Trump wants high tariffs just for the sake of it. If you listen to his recent Detroit speech, he treats tariffs like a thermostat.
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Remember the "Liberation Day" announcement on April 2, 2025? He slapped 10% global tariffs on almost everything. The market hated it. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in seven weeks.
What did Trump say then? He pivoted. He paused the tariffs and moved toward bilateral negotiations.
Now, in 2026, he’s touting the $600 billion in revenue he claims the government has collected from these trade policies. He argues this money is what’s funding the tax cuts that are, in turn, driving the stock buyback boom. S&P 500 companies are on track to spend over $1 trillion on buybacks this year. Trump explicitly links his tax policy to this "Trillion-Dollar Trend."
Why He’s Telling People to "Buy Stocks Now"
In a recent January 2026 update, Trump basically told the public that the "flow of money" is accelerating. He’s leaning into the AI boom, suggesting that the "nuclear revolution" (driven by his support for nuclear energy to power AI data centers) is the next big play.
He’s framing the current market not as a bubble, but as a "re-industrialization."
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However, some experts are skeptical. While Trump says the market is "stronger than ever," the Yale Budget Lab and other analysts point out that the effective tariff rate is creeping toward 14.4%. That’s a lot for consumers to swallow. Trump’s response? He claims inflation is under control at 2.7%, even though some economists are side-eyeing the government's current methodology.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
So, what does Donald Trump actually say about where the market is going? He’s predicting a "banner year" for 2026, but his actions suggest a more chaotic path.
- The "Fed Pressure" Play: He’s likely to continue bashing Powell until his term ends in May 2026. Trump wants a "loyalist" who will slash rates to zero, which he believes will send the Dow to 50,000.
- The Housing Buyout: He recently authorized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. He says this will push mortgage rates to 5.7% or lower, which he claims will "ignite" the real estate sector and related stocks.
- Sector Volatility: If you’re in banking or traditional retail, his "affordability" rhetoric is a risk. He’s proven he’ll sacrifice bank margins for a "win" on credit card rates.
Actionable Insights for Investors
- Watch the May 2026 Fed Chair Appointment: This is the single biggest event for the 2026 market. If Trump gets a "dove" in that seat, expect a massive (but potentially inflationary) rally.
- Differentiate between "Trump Winners" and "Trump Targets": Energy, Defense, and AI-related Tech are currently in his "Winner" circle. Financials and big-box importers are in the "Target" zone due to interest rate caps and tariff pressures.
- Monitor the "Effective" Tariff Rate: Don't just listen to the 10% or 60% headlines. Watch what companies are actually paying. If the effective rate hits 15%+, corporate margins will start to compress, regardless of what the President says on Truth Social.
The 2026 market is essentially a tug-of-war between Trump’s pro-growth tax policies and his disruptive trade and interest rate interventions. He says the market is a "beautiful thing" right now, but for investors, it’s a thing that requires keeping one eye on the ticker and the other on the President's social media feed.
To stay ahead, you should audit your portfolio for exposure to the credit card industry specifically, as the January 20th deadline for the 10% interest rate cap could trigger another wave of volatility in the banking sector.