If you’re driving through the Texas Hill Country right now, the view out your window might be a bit confusing. The Guadalupe River looks peaceful. Almost sleepy. But if you talk to anybody in Kerrville or Hunt, they’ll tell you the ground still feels like it’s shaking from the water that tore through here last summer. People are constantly asking what area of Texas is flooded, and the answer depends on whether you mean "underwater right now" or "still drowning in the aftermath."
Honestly, as of mid-January 2026, we aren't seeing massive new crests. But that doesn't mean the state is dry.
Actually, the weather is doing something kinda weird. While the memories of the July 4th "Calamity" are still fresh, the immediate threat today is a bizarre mix of fire and ice. Most of Central and South-Central Texas, including Austin and San Antonio, is currently under a Red Flag Warning. It's bone-dry. The wind is gusting up to 35 mph. At the same time, a hard freeze is hitting tomorrow. It’s classic Texas weather whiplash.
The Hill Country: Still Rebuilding the Riverbanks
When people search for what area of Texas is flooded, they are usually looking for the Guadalupe River basin. Even six months after the historic July floods that claimed over 130 lives, the "flood" isn't over for the residents of Kerr County.
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Groups like Texans on Mission are still on the ground in Hunt and Ingram. They aren't just mucking out houses anymore; they’re rebuilding entire walls. I saw a report recently about volunteers fixing a fence that the river literally deleted from the map. It's a long, slow process. Many families in the Hill Country are still living in trailers or with relatives because their homes were essentially gutted.
If you’re looking at a map of current river stages, you’ll see the Guadalupe at Hunt is well below flood stage—hovering around 10.3 feet. That sounds safe until you realize the "Flood of Record" there is 36.6 feet. The scars on the cypress trees tell the real story.
Reservoirs and the Current Water Levels
Texas water management is basically a game of "too much or not enough." Right now, it's mostly "not enough," but some reservoirs are still managing the leftovers of previous rains.
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- Addicks Reservoir (Houston): This is a big one to watch. While it’s not overflowing today, Harris County just kicked off a $25 million rehabilitation project at the Addicks Channel. They’re basically trying to make sure that the next time the sky opens up, the water has somewhere to go.
- Lake O’ the Pines: Sitting at about 0.5% into its flood pool. Nothing crazy, but it’s one of the few spots showing any "extra" water.
- The Edwards Aquifer: Even with the floods last year, the J-17 index well in San Antonio is struggling. It’s been dipping below the 630-foot threshold. It’s a strange irony—you can have a "disastrous" flood and still be in a drought six months later.
Why Everyone Is Worried About Tuesday
The current "Red Flag" dry spell is about to break. If you’re checking what area of Texas is flooded because you’re planning a trip, keep your eyes on the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Gulf is sending a massive surge of moisture back inland. We’re looking at rain chances jumping to 60% for San Antonio and the I-35 corridor. When you have ground that is this dry and packed hard by a freeze, it doesn't soak up water well. It acts like concrete. This is exactly how flash floods start.
The National Weather Service is already nudging people to get their "SKYWARN" training done. They know what’s coming. The "weather whiplash" of 2025—going from extreme drought to historic floods in a matter of days—is becoming the new normal for 2026.
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The Real Impact: Beyond the Statistics
It’s easy to look at a USGS gauge and say, "Okay, the Canadian River near Amarillo is at 1.19 feet, we’re fine." But statistics don't show the trauma.
In West Kerr, the legal battles are just starting. People are looking at the text threads between county officials from last July—now dubbed the "COMMAND CHAT"—and asking why the warnings didn't go out faster. When the water rose at Camp Mystic, it wasn't a slow crawl. It was a wall.
That’s why the term "flooded" is so heavy in Texas right now. It refers to the courtrooms in Austin and the memorial sites outside of Kerrville just as much as it refers to the water level.
Actionable Steps: How to Stay Safe This Week
If you live in or are traveling through the Hill Country or North Texas, don't let the current dry wind fool you.
- Monitor the "Turn Around Don't Drown" spots. If you're in Austin, keep an eye on Onion Creek at Hwy 183. If you're in the Victoria area, watch the Guadalupe confluence.
- Respect the Burn Bans. With the Red Flag Warning today, a single spark from a trailer chain or a cigarette can start a fire that moves faster than you can run.
- Prepare for the Tuesday Shift. If you’re in a low-lying area, check your gutters now. Clear the debris from the freeze so the upcoming rain can actually move.
- Check the "Water Data for Texas" site. It's the most accurate way to see real-time reservoir levels without the hype.
Texas isn't currently under a major "active" flood warning today, January 17, 2026, but the transition from fire risk to rain risk is happening in less than 72 hours. Stay weather-aware, especially if you’re near the Guadalupe, Frio, or Medina rivers. The ground remembers the water, even if the sky looks clear.