If you’re checking your phone to see what are the oil prices today, you’ve probably noticed the numbers are jumping around like a caffeinated toddler. Markets are weird right now. Honestly, as of Saturday, January 17, 2026, we’re seeing a classic "tug-of-war" between geopolitical jitters and a massive pile of extra crude sitting in tanks across the globe.
Yesterday's close was a bit of a relief for bulls, but it’s a messy picture.
The Numbers: What are the oil prices today?
Let’s get the hard data out of the way first. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at $64.13 a barrel. That’s up about 37 cents. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is what we usually track in the U.S., finished at $59.44 a barrel.
It’s not exactly a moonshot.
But you have to look at the context. Earlier this week, prices were plummeting. We saw a 4% drop on Thursday alone. Basically, traders are terrified of being "short" over a long weekend. In the U.S., we’ve got the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday coming up, and nobody wants to go home for three days while things are blowing up in the Middle East.
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- Brent Crude: ~$64.13 (Up 0.58%)
- WTI Crude: ~$59.44 (Up 0.42%)
- Gasoline (Retail): Averaging around $2.92 per gallon nationally.
The Iran "Premium" and Why it Matters
The big elephant in the room is Iran. For weeks, the headlines have been dominated by civil unrest in Tehran and potential U.S. military strikes. When Trump signaled he might hold off on attacking, the "war premium" evaporated. That’s why we saw that massive 4% slide.
Markets hate uncertainty, but they hate actual war more.
Right now, the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is moving toward the Persian Gulf. John Kilduff at Again Capital basically noted that with the carrier still in transit, a major escalation probably isn't happening in the next 48 hours. But "probably" is a scary word in the oil pits. If the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked—where a quarter of the world's seaborne oil flows—you can kiss $60 oil goodbye. We’d be looking at a $15 to $20 spike instantly.
The Oversupply Problem Nobody Wants to Face
Here’s the thing most people get wrong. Even with all the drama in Iran and the chaos in Venezuela, we have way too much oil. Goldman Sachs recently put out a note saying they expect a surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day this year.
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That is a lot of extra fuel.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is even more bearish. They’re forecasting Brent to average just $56 a barrel for the rest of 2026. Why? Because non-OPEC countries like Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are pumping oil like there’s no tomorrow. Even with Russia being sanctioned into the ground, they’re still finding ways to get crude to China at a discount.
OPEC+ Is Playing Defense
On January 4, OPEC+ (the big cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia) met and decided to keep their production cuts in place through March. They’re basically trying to put a floor under the price. They’re scared that if they let more oil onto the market, the price will collapse toward $50.
It’s a fragile strategy.
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If demand in China or India slips even a little, OPEC+ will be forced to cut even deeper. But members like Iraq and Kazakhstan are already struggling to stick to their quotas. Honestly, it’s like trying to hold back a flood with a screen door.
What This Means for Your Wallet
If you’re a consumer, this is actually decent news. While we’re seeing "what are the oil prices today" bounce around $60, the long-term trend is downward. The EIA thinks we’ll see retail gasoline stay under $3.00 for most of the year.
Lower energy costs usually mean lower inflation. That gives the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates, which is what everyone on Wall Street is praying for.
Actionable Insights for the Week Ahead
The market is currently in a state of "contango." That’s a fancy finance word meaning the price for future delivery is higher than the price today. It encourages companies to store oil in tanks and wait for better prices.
- Watch the Headlines on Monday: Even though U.S. markets are closed for the holiday, Brent will still be trading globally. Any news out of the Persian Gulf will set the tone for Tuesday's open.
- Don't Panic at the Pump: Unless a missile actually hits a refinery, the current price spikes are mostly "short covering" and holiday hedging.
- Look at the Inventory Reports: Keep an eye on the weekly EIA storage numbers. If we keep seeing builds in OECD countries, the price of WTI is going to have a hard time staying above $60.
The bottom line? The world has plenty of oil, but the "geopolitical jitters" are keeping us from seeing the $50 prices the fundamentals suggest. It’s a game of chicken between supply gluts and regional conflicts.