Waking up and looking out the window for that first white dusting is a January ritual. Honestly, though, figuring out what are the chances of snow today feels more like a high-stakes guessing game than a science some mornings.
If you're in Chicago or New York right now, you aren't just imagining the chaos. It’s real.
We’ve seen a fast-moving winter monster rip through the Midwest and Northeast already. In Chicago, they just got walloped with 6.9 inches—the city's biggest single-day dump in over a decade. That’s not just a "chance" of snow; that’s a full-on schedule disruptor. Meanwhile, the airports like JFK and O'Hare are basically parking lots for planes right now due to ground stops.
The Clipper vs. The Coastal Storm: A Tale of Two Systems
So, why is the forecast so all over the place? Basically, we’re dealing with two distinct systems duking it out for dominance.
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First, there’s this "Clipper-system" sliding through the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. It’s fast. It’s cold. It’s responsible for those sudden snow squalls that make driving on I-81 or the Pennsylvania Turnpike a nightmare. Meteorologist Tawana Andrew over at WAVE 3 was just talking about how these squalls are basically the "thunderstorms of winter." They hit, they blind you for twenty minutes, and then they're gone, leaving a fresh sheet of ice behind.
Then you’ve got the coastal storm. This is the one New York City is watching like a hawk.
- NYC & Tri-State: You’ve got a Winter Weather Advisory active. While today might just see a trace to maybe an inch, Sunday is the real target.
- The South: Places like Alabama are actually in the mix. Henry and Houston counties are under advisories starting early Sunday morning.
- New England: Massachusetts is looking at a "jackpot" scenario where some spots could see 5 inches, but it depends entirely on how close that storm tracks to the coast.
What Are The Chances Of Snow Today In Your Neck Of The Woods?
If you are looking for hard numbers, the National Weather Service probability maps are currently lighting up like a Christmas tree in specific corridors.
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In places like western Pennsylvania and Ohio, the "expected" amounts are hovering between 2 to 4 inches for towns like Aliquippa and Adena. The "high-end" scenario—that 1 in 10 chance—could push those totals to 6 inches if the moisture stays locked in.
Down in D.C., the Capital Weather Gang is calling it a "5/10" on their daily digit scale. You might see some "conversational snowflakes" (their words, not mine, but I love it). Essentially, it means you'll see them, you'll talk about them, but you probably won't have to shovel them. They’re pegging the chance of a dusting at about 50 percent by Sunday evening.
Why road temperatures matter more than you think
Here’s a nuance people usually miss: the ground is still kinda warm in some spots. In Alabama, for example, temperatures hit the mid-50s this afternoon. Even if it starts puking snow at 3 a.m. tonight, it’s going to hit that warm pavement and melt. The "chance of snow" might be high, but the "chance of a ruined commute" might actually be low.
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It’s the bridges you have to watch. They lose heat from the top and bottom, so while the road is just wet, the bridge is a skating rink.
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Meteorologists like Sarah Osterbind and Jim Stefkovich have been highlighting a "brief dry period" happening right now between the waves of moisture. This is the eye of the literal and metaphorical storm.
We are currently tracking an "amplified trough" swinging through the Eastern U.S. This is fancy weather-speak for a big dip in the jet stream that’s inviting Arctic air to come down and stay for a while. By Monday and Tuesday, we aren't just talking about snow; we're talking about lows in the single digits as far south as Kentucky.
Actionable Next Steps For Your Saturday
Don't just stare at the app; the percentages don't tell the whole story.
- Check the "Snow Potential Index": If you’re in the Mid-Atlantic, look for the probability of accumulation rather than just the "chance of precipitation." A 100% chance of a 0.1-inch dusting is a very different Saturday than a 40% chance of 4 inches.
- Monitor Airport Delays: If you have a flight, don't wait for the airline to text you. Check the FAA’s National Airspace System (NAS) status. Ground stops are already in effect for the major NY and Chicago hubs.
- Prepare for the "Flash Freeze": If you see rain today and the temperature is forecasted to drop below 32°F tonight, get the salt out now. The transition from rain to snow is when the most accidents happen.
The what are the chances of snow today answer is shifting by the hour. Stay tuned to the localized NWS briefings—they’re much more accurate than the generic "sun and cloud" icons on your phone's default weather app.