Honestly, if you've been watching the Wells Fargo bank stock price lately, you're probably feeling a little bit like you’re watching a high-stakes poker game where the dealer just changed the deck. One day it’s up, the next it’s taking a 4% dive because of a single sentence in an earnings transcript. It’s a lot. As of mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around the $88.36 mark, but that number doesn't even begin to tell the whole story of what's actually happening inside the San Francisco giant.
The bank just wrapped up its Q4 2025 earnings, and it was a total mixed bag. They beat earnings expectations—coming in at $1.76 per share (adjusted)—but investors basically ignored that and focused on a revenue miss. They brought in $21.29 billion when Wall Street wanted $21.64 billion.
Markets are moody like that.
But here’s the thing: Wells Fargo is finally, officially, out of the "penalty box." For years, they were the only major bank with a Federal Reserve-imposed handcuffs known as the asset cap. That cap was finally tossed in the trash back in June 2025. Now, the bank is growing its balance sheet like a teenager hit by a growth spurt, with total assets up 11% over the last year.
The Real Reason the Wells Fargo Bank Stock Price is Twitchy
You’d think the end of the asset cap would send the stock to the moon, right? Well, it sorta did for a while, but now we’re in the "show me the money" phase.
Investors are currently obsessed with something called Net Interest Income (NII). This is basically the bread and butter of banking—the difference between what they pay you for your savings and what they charge Joe Smith for his mortgage.
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Why the NII guidance spooked people
For 2026, CFO Mike Santomassimo projected NII to be around $50 billion. On paper, that sounds great. It's an increase from 2025. But when you peel back the layers, the "core" banking NII is only expected to grow about 3%. That’s a bit sluggish when you consider they are now allowed to grow their assets as much as they want.
- Rate Cuts: The Fed is expected to cut rates a few more times in 2026.
- Deposit Competition: People aren't leaving their money in 0.01% savings accounts anymore; they want yield, and that costs the bank money.
- Balance Sheet Flexing: Wells Fargo is using its new freedom to pile into trading and investment banking, which is "capital light" but can be volatile.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "New" Wells Fargo
There’s this lingering idea that Wells Fargo is still just a scandal-ridden mortgage lender. That’s old news. Under CEO Charlie Scharf, the bank has been quietly—and then very loudly—buying its way into the elite Wall Street circle.
They’ve hired nearly 200 new coverage bankers in the last two years.
In 2025, they jumped from 12th to 8th in the U.S. M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) rankings. They even helped advise Union Pacific on a massive $85 billion deal last summer. This isn't your grandma’s stagecoach bank anymore. They want to be a top 5 investment bank, and they’re using their $2.1 trillion balance sheet to make it happen.
The Expense Game
Another thing driving the Wells Fargo bank stock price is the bank's obsession with efficiency. They've cut their headcount by over 25% since 2020. That is a massive reduction. For 2026, they are targeting another $2.4 billion in gross expense cuts.
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However, they are also spending a ton on tech. About $1.1 billion of incremental spending is going toward technology and "modernization." You can see this in their app—50% of their new checking accounts are now opened digitally.
The Analyst Divide: Buy the Dip or Wait it Out?
If you ask five different Wall Street analysts about WFC, you’ll get five different answers, though most are still leaning "Buy."
- Evercore ISI recently trimmed their price target to $105 (down from $110). They still like the stock, but they’re worried about the NII "unwanted attention."
- Truist Securities is sitting at a $100 target. They pointed out that the bank is trading at a low P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio relative to its growth, which is usually a sign of a bargain.
- The Bear Case: Some skeptics worry that as the bank stops its aggressive share buybacks—they returned $23 billion to shareholders in 2025—the "sugar high" for the stock price might fade.
Scharf basically told everyone on the last call to expect lower buybacks in 2026 because they’d rather use that money to fund actual loans and growth. It's the right move for the long term, but the "I want my dividends now" crowd isn't thrilled.
Is the Stock Undervalued?
Let’s look at the numbers without getting too bogged down. The bank’s Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) hit 15% in 2025. Their new goal? 17% to 18%.
If they hit that, $88 a share is going to look very cheap in the rearview mirror.
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But there are risks. The "Commercial Real Estate" (CRE) office portfolio is still a bit of a dark cloud. Everyone knows the office market is struggling, and while Wells Fargo has a massive "allowance" (a rainy-day fund) to cover losses, a sudden crash there would definitely hurt.
What to Do Next
If you’re looking at the Wells Fargo bank stock price as a potential entry point, don't just look at the ticker symbol. Look at the macro.
First, watch the Fed. If they cut rates faster than expected, Wells Fargo's margins might get squeezed harder than the bank's guidance suggests.
Second, track the "Markets" revenue. Since the asset cap is gone, this is their new engine. If they continue to climb the M&A rankings and steal share from Goldman or JPMorgan, the stock will likely re-rate higher.
Third, keep an eye on the $86.82 support level. Technical analysts are saying if it drops below that, we might see a slide toward $80. But if it stays above, the path to $100 looks fairly open as the year progresses.
The stagecoach is finally moving again. It's just a bit of a bumpy ride while they find their new pace.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the January 2026 Fed minutes to see the outlook on interest rate cuts, as this directly impacts Wells Fargo's NII guidance.
- Monitor the CIB (Corporate and Investment Banking) segment performance in the next quarterly report; growth here is the primary "post-asset cap" bull case.
- Evaluate your portfolio's exposure to large-cap banks; Wells Fargo currently offers a different growth profile than JPMorgan due to its recent regulatory "rebirth."