You’ve spent all summer staring at draft boards. You know every sleeper's wingspan and every backup's 40-time. But then the season starts, and suddenly, that "safe" RB1 you took in the first round is splitting carries with a guy you didn't even know was on the active roster. It happens every year.
Honestly, Week 1 is the most chaotic week in the fantasy calendar because we’re all working off of three-month-old data and preseason "vibes."
People treat projections like they’re written in stone. They aren't. They're educated guesses, and quite frankly, most of them ignore the human element of football—the stuff that actually moves the needle when the lights go on.
The Reality of Week One Fantasy Projections
Early-season projections usually lean too heavily on what happened last December. But look at someone like Bijan Robinson. He’s currently the consensus RB1 for many analysts heading into the 2026 season. Is he talented? Obviously. But projections often miss the impact of a new offensive line coach or a shift in red-zone philosophy.
Last year, Christian McCaffrey led the league with a staggering 413 touches. That’s a massive number. History tells us that RBs coming off 400+ touch seasons almost never repeat as top-5 fantasy assets the following year. Yet, you’ll see him projected for 20+ points in Week 1 because it's the "safe" bet. That’s where the trap is set.
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We also have to talk about the sophomore jumps. Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are elite, but Week 1 is often when defenses unveil the specific "anti-Puka" schemes they spent six months building.
Dealing With the "New Team" Narratives
A lot of the 2026 projections are going to be wonky because of the sheer volume of player movement. Take George Pickens, for example. He’s coming off a career-high 1,429 yards and 9 TDs with the Cowboys, but if he hits free agency or moves, his Week 1 projection will be a total wildcard.
Drafting is one thing. Starting them is another.
The biggest mistake? Trusting the "E-rank" over the actual matchup data. If a star WR is facing a shutdown corner like Sauce Gardner in Week 1, his projection might still stay at 16 points because of his name value. That’s a mistake. You’ve gotta look at the individual matchups, the weather, and the travel schedules.
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- Quarterback Chaos: Guys like Matthew Stafford (despite the finger issues) and C.J. Stroud are projected as high-end QB1s for Week 1.
- The Rookie Wall: Luther Burden III ended last year on a tear for the Bears. Projections will love him, but remember that Week 1 is the first time a rookie (now sophomore) has to prove the league hasn't caught up to them.
- Injury Hangovers: Patrick Mahomes is rehabbing a torn ACL and aiming for Week 1 of 2026. His projection will be the most debated number in fantasy. Do you start a 70% Mahomes or a 100% Drake Maye?
Why Volume is Better Than Talent for Projections
In Week 1, I’m chasing touches, not highlights.
I’d rather start a boring RB who is guaranteed 18 carries than a "explosive" wideout who might only get 5 targets. Jahmyr Gibbs is a prime example. He’s electric. But in Week 1, if the Lions decide to lean on David Montgomery to grind out a clock-killing win, Gibbs might disappoint those who drafted him at the 1.02.
Look at Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas. He had nearly 900 yards after contact last year. That’s a volume monster. Even if the Raiders' offense is a mess, a guy who gets that many touches is a projection goldmine because his floor is so high.
What You Should Actually Look At
Don't just look at the total points. Look at the Target Share. If a player was getting 30% of his team's targets at the end of 2025, that’s a sticky stat. It usually carries over.
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Also, pay attention to the "silent" injuries. Dalton Kincaid was in a walking boot late last season. If he’s not 100% by training camp, his Week 1 projection needs to be slashed by at least 20%. Tight end is a position where you can't afford a "dud" start.
Turning Projections Into Wins
So, how do you actually use this? Basically, you treat projections as a range of outcomes rather than a single number.
If Drake London is projected for 14.5 points, his real range is probably 8 to 22. If your opponent has a high-ceiling team, you might need to gamble on the high end of that range. If you’re a heavy favorite, you play the guy with the 12-point floor even if his ceiling is lower.
Honestly, the best way to handle Week 1 is to ignore the "projected score" on your app and look at the Snap Counts from the previous preseason games. Coaches usually show their hand in the third preseason game regarding who they trust in the red zone.
Next Steps for Your Roster:
- Audit your starters: Check the 2025 end-of-season target shares for every WR on your team.
- Monitor the Raiders' Coaching Staff: If they bring in an offensive-minded head coach, Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers become immediate "must-starts" regardless of the projection.
- Watch the Mahomes News: Keep a backup QB ready. If Mahomes isn't 100% by the third week of August, pivot early.
- Matchup Check: Look for WRs facing secondary units that lost a starting cornerback to free agency this past spring.
Fantasy is won by the people who see the shifts before the numbers catch up. Don't be the person who loses Week 1 because they followed a spreadsheet instead of the actual game.